A Physical Titans Team Can Overwhelm Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals In Week 4
Grabbing the points with the Tennessee Titans (1-2) when they host the Cincinnati Bengals (1-2) at Nissan Stadium is my best bet of NFL Week 4. A good starting point for handicapping the NFL is to fade what happened the week prior.
In Week 3, the Browns steam-rolled the Titans 27-3 in Cleveland. Tennessee had 17 fewer 1st downs (23-6) than Cleveland. The Titans gained just 94 total yards against the Browns and gave up 80 penalty yards.
Browns pass rusher Myles Garrett sacks Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill at Cleveland Browns Stadium in Ohio. (Nick Cammett/Getty Images)
The Bengals held off the LA Rams for a 19-16 win on Monday Night Football last week. However, if you look under the hood of that win you'll see Cincy didn't play well. The Rams were just 1-for-11 on 3rd down and 1-for-4 in the red zone. The Bengals lost in yards per play 5.6-4.2 Monday.
More importantly, Joe Burrow battled through a calf injury to play Monday and he still doesn't look right. Through the 1st three weeks, Burrow has the 2nd-worst QB Rating in the NFL ahead of only Jets QB Zach Wilson.
Los Angeles Rams pass rusher Aaron Donald sacks Bengals QB Joe Burrow at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Burrow's calf injury is hurting his mobility and the Cincinnati offense's explosiveness. The Bengals are tied for the 2nd-fewest red zone appearances in the league and Burrow has the 3rd-lowest intended air yards per pass.
The other factors for my pro-Titans handicap include them responding to butt whoopings under head coach Mike Vrabel, the sketchy spread itself, and how Tennessee matches up with Cincy.
Bengals at Titans NFL Week 4 odds (PointsBet)
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans betting odds in NFL Week 4 from PointsBet as of Friday, Sept. 29th at 2:35 p.m. ET.
Since QB Ryan Tannehill became Tennessee's starter in Week 6 of 2019, the Titans are 9-3 straight up (SU) and 9-2-1 against the spread (ATS) after double-digit losses. They are 5-1 SU and ATS at home in those spots and 4-2 SU and 5-0-1 ATS as underdogs.
Also, pass coverage is the weakness of Tennessee's defense. But, if Burrow's injury is preventing him from throwing down the field, Cincinnati cannot exploit that weakness. The Titans allow an NFL-best 2.6 yards per rush.
Furthermore, the Bengals have a subpar offensive line and the Titans have a nasty front seven. Cincy averages just 3.6 yards per rush (25th in the NFL). Per Pro Football Focus, the Bengals have the 3rd-worst run-blocking matchup in Week 4.
Tennessee Titans LB Harold Landry, DT Jeffery Simmons, edge rusher Arden Key celebrate vs. the Los Angeles Chargers at Nissan Stadium in Nashville. (Johnnie Izquierdo/Getty Images)
Plus, this could be a bounce-back game for Tennessee's rushing attack. The Titans average just 3.8 yards per rush currently (21st) and the Bengals allow 5.1 yards per rush (28th). Tennessee's 3rd-down and red-zone conversion rates are poor. But, that'll change if the Titans are running the ball well.
Finally, the public is going to back Cincinnati heavily come Sunday. The average Joe is going to see the Bengals are favored less than a field goal and think, "Easy money". Maybe later in the season this will be true. But, in Week 4, Tennessee is the sharp play.
Prediction: Titans 23, Bengals 20