A Couple Of 'Square' Favorite Bets For The NBA Tuesday
This sounds delusional but, despite an 0-3 Monday betting the NBA, I feel like I'm seeing it well and lost three coin flips. New Orleans and Boston both hit at least 50% of their shots Monday and two of the four quarters trended Over the total. Yet, Pelicans-Celtics finished with a 118-112 Boston win.
OKC held a lead entering the final frame but Minnesota rallied for the victory. Milwaukee hit 12 more threes (16-4) than Denver and still lost. It's rare for a team to make four times more threes and lose in today's NBA. Whether it's irrational confidence or gambling degeneracy, I'm getting back on the hardwood with a few ....
NBA Tuesday Best Bets
Utah Jazz at New York Knicks (-4.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
No one is playing better than the Knicks currently. They are on a 7-game winning streak and are 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in those games. Since acquiring SG OG Anunoby Dec. 30th, New York is 13-2 straight up (SU) and 12-3 ATS with a +15.4 scoring margin.
The Jazz beat the Knicks 117-113 as +6 home 'dogs in Utah Dec. 13th. But, this was the pre-OG days for NYK. Their defense allows 25.9 fewer points per 100 possessions when Anunoby is on the floor, according to CleaningTheGlass.com. OG is the perfect guy to defend Jazz All-Star stretch-4 Lauri Markkanen.
New York Knicks PG Jalen Brunson shoots a fadeaway over Utah Jazz SG Collin Sexton at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City. (Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports)
Granted, Knicks All-Star PF Julius Randle is sidelined with a dislocated shoulder. The team is still waiting for a medical diagnosis for Randle on how to proceed. However, soon-to-be New York All-Star PG Jalen Brunson can pick up the slack with Randle out.
Also, the Jazz are terrible when they leave Salt Lake City. Utah is 9-18 SU and 13-14 ATS on the road with a -9.7 scoring margin. The slumping Brooklyn Nets boat-raced the Jazz 147-114 Monday on the frontend of their back-to-back (B2B).
Lastly, this is the last of a 6-game road stand for Utah and NYK beats the teams they should. For instance, teams are road weary at the end of road trips. The Knicks are 19-9 ATS as favorites with a +10.8 scoring margin.
My prediction: Knicks 120, Jazz 108
Philadelphia 76ers at Golden State Warriors (-3.5), 10 p.m. ET
It's crazy how much money I've lost betting on the Warriors this season. Have I learned my lesson? No way. I got lucky to hit the Dubs +2 when it lost at home to the Sacramento Kings 134-133 Thursday. Then I got unlucky when betting Golden State -1.5 in a 145-144 double overtime home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers Saturday.
That said, I'm going to slam my face into a wall again Tuesday and bet the Warriors over the Sixers. They were -4.5 home favorites and beat Philadelphia 120-112 in March 2023. Golden State is only -3.5 Tuesday despite both Joel Embiid and 76ers PG Tyrese Maxey "questionable" to play.
Golden State Warriors' legend Stephen Curry starts a fast-break vs. Philadelphia 76ers at Chase Center in San Francisco, California. (Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports)
Embiid and Maxey suited up for the last Warriors-76ers meeting. If both miss Tuesday's game, I'll take my chances with the Warriors covering a -3.5 spread. They are playing on two days rest while Philly is on the 2nd of a B2B.
With that in mind, Golden State is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS with +7.1 scoring margin a when playing with a rest advantage. Finally, the Sixers are getting the fewest "wide-open" 3-pointers per game over their last six and the Warriors have the best defensive shot quality in the NBA, per CTG.