A Bounce-Back Night Betting NBA Is Crucial Thursday
Despite getting "closing line value" (CLV) on all three of my NBA bets Wednesday, I only went 1-2. That's been a consistent thing for my NBA gambling since last season. Meaning, my winning rate on CLV bets is much lower than it should be.
I also reminded myself why I rarely make 1st-quarter or 1st-half bets. The New Orleans Pelicans failed to cover their -6.5 1st-half spread vs. the Charlotte Hornets. Yet, NOLA ended up beating Charlotte by 20 points and covering as -12.5 favorites.
After losing Wednesday, I promised myself to take an night off Thursday. Especially, because there is only five games on the slate. Well, I guess that makes me a liar because I talked myself into two ...
NBA Thursday Best Bets
UNDER 234 in Wizards at Knicks, 7:30 p.m. ET
New York’s defensive efficiency has improved since trading for wing OG Anunoby at the end of December. In fact, the Knicks lead the NBA in defensive rating in OG’s nine games in New York.
The Knicks are 1-8 Over/Under (O/U) since the trade for OG. Per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), NYK’s opponents are scoring 31.8 fewer points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time when Anunoby is in the game.
He will be defending Washington’s leader in usage rate, wing Kyle Kuzma, which is bad news for Kuzma and D.C.’s offense. They held Washington to 105 points Jan. 6 with OG in the lineup and 99 points in November. Both Knicks-Wizards meetings this season went Under the total.
Moreover, as -7 favorites or higher, the Knicks are 3-7 O/U with a -8.4 O/U margin. They are 6-11 O/U at home this season with a -4.7 O/U differential. NYK actually scores 3.0 fewer PPG at home but holds opponents to 9.2 fewer PPG.
And by making New York -12 favorites, the sportsbooks are saying this will most likely be a blowout. Take my word for it, “garbage time kills Overs”. If the Knicks have a 20+ lead, they are going to slow down the tempo and both teams might have backups on the floor.
This is just the “cherry atop the handicapping sundae”, but this is a Pros vs. Joe’s game in the betting market. Per Pregame.com, roughly two-thirds of the cash is on the Under while that same rate of bets are on the Under. It’s wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since pros place bigger bets than your “average Joe”.
My prediction: Knicks 122, Wizards 105
Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz (+3.5), 9 p.m. ET
What world are we living in where Thunder-Jazz is the best game in the NBA? That probably says more about the current state of the NBA than anything else. Anywho. This number feels light given all the Thunder hype in the NBA community.
They are second in net rating behind the favorites to win the NBA championship, Boston Celtics. Plus, OKC has a four-game winning and cover streak vs. Utah. This includes the Thunder’s 134-120 win at home over the Jazz Dec. 11th.
The sharper operations of Betcris, Bookmaker, and Pinnacle Sportsbook make Utah’s spread pricier. Those are “sharp” shops because they book the largest bets in the world. Well, those sportsbooks are trying to steer their whale clientele toward the Thunder.
Since 2022, they are 8-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) vs. teams winning 60% of their games or higher. Utah is 8-5 SU and 10-3 ATS as a home 'dog and 6-0 ATS with a rest edge. OKC is playing on one day’s rest and it’s been two days since the Jazz’s previous game.
Utah Jazz SG Jordan Clarkson drives past Thunder SG Cason Wallace in an NBA game at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. (Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports)
Utah is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in January with a +13.3 scoring margin. They matchup well with OKC too. Both teams have promising young head coaches, skilled bigs (Thunder C Chet Holmgren and Jazz All-Star stretch-4 Lauri Markkanen), and guards that attack the paint.
Oklahoma City leads the NBA in drives per game but Utah is 7th. Except the Jazz have a better shot quality on both ends of the floor, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). Lastly, Utah has a strength-on-weakness over OKC on the boards.
The Jazz has the 2nd-best offensive rebounding rate in the NBA and the Thunder has the 2nd-worst defensive rebounding rate. Utah is 3rd in 2nd-chance points per game (PPG) and Oklahoma City is 27th in 2nd-chance PPG allowed.