76ers At Celtics Game 1 Is Destined To Go UNDER The Total
One of the most storied rivalries in NBA history starts a new chapter Monday. The 2-seed Boston Celtics host the 3-seed Philadelphia 76ers for Game 1 of the 2024 NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals.
Boston survived a quasi-scare from the 7-seed Hawks in the 1st round but finished off Atlanta on the road in six games. Celtics All-Stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown averaged a combined 53.9 points per game (PPG) vs. the Hawks.
Celtics wings Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum in action against the 76ers at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. (Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
Philly swept 6-seed Brooklyn in the 1st round. The 76ers closed out the Nets without probable 2022-23 NBA MVP Joel Embiid who missed Game 4 with a knee injury. Embiid is "doubtful" for the series opener with Boston Monday.
The Celtics beat the Sixers 3-1 straight up (SU) and 4-0 against the spread (ATS) during the regular season and their totals were 1-3 Over/Under (O/U) with a -6.9 O/U margin.
76ers at Celtics Game 1 odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting odds for the Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals from DraftKings.
Joel Embiid’s absence affects Philadelphia's offense more so than its defense
Per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Philly's effective field goal shooting fell by 3.6% when Embiid was out of the game during the regular season. The 76ers get to the foul line 10.4% less when Embiid is off the floor as well.
Philadelphia 76ers C Joel Embiid is surrounded by Boston Celtics bigs Robert Williams III and Al Horford and G Derrick White at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. (Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Network)
Boston can stay home on 3-point shooters without the threat of Embiid bullying the Celtics down low. It'll be easy for Boston's front-court defensive anchor, C Robert Williams III, to lock up the paint.
‘Styles Make Fights’
76ers-Celtics had a 91.9 pace in their four regular-season meetings, which would rank for the 12th in these playoffs. Also, Boston was 20th in pace during the regular season and Philadelphia was 27th.
Furthermore, the Sixers are more likely to slow the tempo down to avoid a shootout without its best player, Embiid. Philly and Brooklyn played at an 89.4 pace in their 1st-round series finale.
Philadelphia PG James Harden drives to the basket against Boston G Derrick White at Wells Fargo Center. (Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Network)
Plus, James Harden has been banged up since mid-March. The 76ers' fastbreak frequency lowers when Harden is in the game and they score 3.2 fewer points in transition per 100 possessions, per CTG.
The Celtics played faster vs. the Hawks in the 1st-round than they did in the regular season. But, that was because Boston was willing to get into a shootout with Atlanta since the Hawks play Swiss-cheese defense.
Suspect Line Movement
Game 1 opened with a 215.5-point total and steamed down to the current number (214). Interestingly, the total plummeted despite more than 80% of the action at DraftKings being on the Over as of Sunday night, according to VSIN.
Boston wing Jayson Tatum looks to pass the ball during the game vs. Philly at the TD Garden in Boston. (Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images)
Honestly, this is the most important handicapping angle. At first, I thought “Man, this total is too low”. Apparently, the market agrees. So why are the sportsbooks lowering the total? It feels like the House is trying to get more action on the Over.
BET: UNDER 214 in 76ers-Celtics from DraftKings, down to 213
Odds for the UNDER in Sixers at Celtics for Game 1 as of Monday, May 1st at 10:35 a.m. ET from DraftKings.