5 Barking 'Dogs Make Up The Circa Million V NFL Week 11 Picks
It's getting harder and harder to find five picks in the NFL every week. The spreads are sharper and QB injuries are piling up so it's tough to predicting these games. Regardless, my Circa Million V record is 25-24-1 entering Week 11 and I feel better about these picks than last week's.
Week 10 Recap: (3-2)
Circa Million V NFL Week 11 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
Circa Million Pick #1: Chicago Bears (+8) at Detroit Lions
This is my best bet of NFL Week 11 so I've already discussed this game in detail. The TLDR-version of my Bears-Lions handicap is Detroit's defense is overrated and Chicago QB Justin Fields returns and was balling before getting hurt.
(LISTEN to Bears-Lions analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #2: Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (+1)
The Rams helped me go 4-1 in NFL Week 1 by crushing the Seahawks 30-13 as +5.5 underdogs. Seattle is 6-3 entering Week 11 and LAR is 3-6 but this meeting isn't much different than the season opener.
Matt Stafford returns after missing LAR's previous game, a 20-3 loss at the Green Bay Packers in Week 8. Stafford carved up the Seahawks in Week 1 without All-Pro WR Cooper Kupp. With Kupp back and a bye week to prepare for Seattle, the Rams will break out of their offensive slump.
Also, Seahawks QB Geno Smith has been awful lately. Since Week 4, Seattle is 23rd in expected points added (EPA) per play. Geno ranks 27th in on-target throw percentage over that span and has eight turnovers (6 interceptions and 2 fumbles).
Furthermore, the Seahawks are terrible in high-leverage situations. They are 30th in 3rd-down conversion rate and 25th in red-zone scoring rate. Seattle's offense is good inside the 20s but cannot hit paydirt and chokes on 3rd down.
Finally, the Rams own the Seahawks in the Sean McVay era. LAR is 9-5 straight up and against the spread (ATS) vs. Seattle since the Rams hired McVay in 2017. The Rams are beating the Seahawks 25.4-19.2 in those meetings.
(LISTEN to Seahawks-Rams analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #3: Pittsburgh Steelers (Pick 'em) at Cleveland Browns
Instead of spilling more ink on this matchup, I invite you to check out my Weekend Betting Guide below.
My main factors include the dropoff from Browns QB Deshaun Watson to rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin excelling in these spots. Pittsburgh having two key players it didn't in its 26-22 Week 2 victory vs. Cleveland.
(LISTEN to Steelers-Browns analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #4: Arizona Cardinals (+4.5) at Houston Texans
Houston is the darling of the NFL so this feels like the right time to fade the Texans. C.J. Stroud is a lock to win 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and is even getting MVP buzz. Houston coach DeMeco Ryans is on track to be a Coach of the Year candidate as well.
But, this is the same Texans team that lost to the then-winless Carolina Panthers 15-13 in Week 8. Plus, Houston lost in Atlanta 21-19 in Week 5 while the Cardinals beat the Falcons 25-23 at home in Arizona QB Kyler Murray's season debut last week.
Cardinals QB Kyler Murray celebrates 13-yards 1st-down scramble vs. the Atlanta Falcons at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. (Mike Christy/Getty Images)
Speaking of which, I'm a "Kyler guy". Especially at this point of the NFL season. Murray is definitely a top-10 quarterback making a start in Week 11. Kyler showed why the Cardinals paid him all that money last week vs. Atlanta.
Lastly, Houston is 25th in offensive early-down success rate. I.e. the Texans struggle on 1st and 2nd downs and need Stroud to bail them out on 3rd down, which is unsustainable. Finally, the Texans have played in five consecutive one-score games with four being decided by 3 or fewer points.
(LISTEN to Cardinals-Texans analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #5: Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay Packers (+3)
LAC's defense is a joke and this shouldn't be road favorites vs. any team in the NFL besides the New York Giants. The Chargers' defense is 28th in EPA/play and 29th in yards per play (YPP). Packers QB Jordan Love has improved his passing grade in five consecutive games, per Pro Football Focus (PFF).
Plus, LAC opened as -3.5 favorites and has been lowered despite three-fourths of the bets being on the Chargers as of Saturday afternoon, per PFF. Going from -3.5 to -3 is a big move so the sportsbooks are daring the public to bet the Chargers.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert throws a pass vs. the Detroit Lions at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. (Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports)
The Packers could be getting back two defensive starters in CB Jaire Alexander and LB Quay Walker in Week 11. Whereas the Chargers could be without No. 1 WR Keenan Allen and are definitely without WRs Josh Palmer and Mike Williams.
Green Bay's defense struggles vs. the run. But, LAC is a bad rushing team and averages 3.8 yards per rush, which ranks 25th in the NFL. The bottom line is Chargers QB Justin Herbert doesn't have enough help and isn't a proven winner. Gimme the points with the Cheeseheads.
(LISTEN to Chargers-Packers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).