4 NBA Best Bets Wednesday Include Suns-Mavs Grudge Match
Apparently, it's "rivalry week" in the NBA. I'm a life-long NBA fan and have been betting the Association for the past decade and I didn't even know about this. But, that's the NBA's fault. Their players are devaluing the regular-season by product with their "load management" garbage.
If I sound salty, it's because am I. My NBA record is disappointing and my cash cow (the NFL) only has three games remaining. Hence I'll need to pay for these basketball losses with my own money instead of using my NFL winnings.
NBA Wednesday Best Bets
Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons (-2.5), 7 p.m. ET
This is a square bet that I locked in Tuesday night after reading Pistons PG Cade Cunningham would most likely return from a 7-game injury absence. Now, Cade has been downgraded to "questionable" and I got the worst of the number by betting Detroit -3.
Regardless, I'm moving forward with the Pistons -2.5 (up to -4 if Cunningham plays) because the Hornets are 3-6 against the spread (ATS) after their 1st nine victories this season.
One of Detroit’s four wins came at the Charlotte Hornets in their 2nd game of the season. The Pistons beat the Hornets October 27th as +4.5 underdogs. They were missing sharpshooting SF Bojan Bogdanović who is hitting 41.1% of his 3-pointers and averaging 19.5 points per game (PPG).
Hornets PF P.J. Washington tries to block Detroit Pistons big Isaiah Stewart at the rim at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports)
Even though Detroit has the worst record in the Association, the Pistons -2.5 Wednesday is light. DunksAndThrees.com accounts for strength of schedule and that site ranks Charlotte dead-last in adjusted net rating. Of course, Detroit is 2nd-to-last.
The Hornets traded their 2nd-leading scorer, SG Terry Rozier, to the Miami Heat for PG Kyle Lowry and a future 1st-round pick. Lowry isn’t going to play for Charlotte and will be elsewhere by the trade deadline. I.e. the Hornets gave up their 2nd-leading scorer for nothing.
Over the last two weeks, the Pistons have a -7.9 adjusted net rating and the Hornets are -15.2, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). Between this game being in Detroit, Bogdanović playing, Rozier leaving and recent performance, the Pistons should be at least -4 favorites Thursday. As ridiculous as that sounds.
My prediction: Pistons 119, Hornets 112
Minnesota Timberwolves at Washington Wizards, 7 p.m. ET
This is the rare occasion where I bet a game prop, which is WIZARDS UNDER 108.5 TEAM TOTAL. T-Wolves All-Star big Karl-Anthony Towns scored a team-record 62 points in their last outing at the Hornets Monday. But, Minnesota lost to Charlotte 128-125 and Timberwolves head coach Chris Finch was pissed!
With this in mind, the T-Wolves will come out inspired Wednesday. They have the best defensive rating in the NBA and the Wizards are 25th in offensive rating.
Washington has gone UNDER its team total in seven of the last 10 games, per EVAnalytics.com. Whereas Minnesota has held its opponents to 105 or fewer points in six of the past 10 games.
Timberwolves SF Jaden McDaniels blocks a shot by Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic in an NBA game at Target Center in Minneapolis. (David Berding/Getty Images)
Also, there should be a bunch of "one-and-done" possessions for the Wizards. They have the worst offensive rebounding rate in the NBA and the Timberwolves have the best defensive rebounding rate.
Lastly, Washington averages the 2nd-most paint PPG but Minnesota has the best defensive big in the NBA (Rudy Gobert) and ranks 3rd in paint PPG allowed.
My prediction: Timberwolves 120, Wizards 104
Cleveland Cavaliers (+7.5) at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 p.m. ET
This is the 1st of a Cavaliers-Bucks two-game miniseries in Milwaukee and the 2nd is Thursday. The Bucks are 5-1 SU over their last six games but 0-6 ATS.
Cleveland enters on an 8-game winning streak. One of those was a 40-point victory over Milwaukee at home Jan. 17th. Giannis Antetokounmpo missed that game and the Bucks closed as +2 underdogs.
Cavs All-Star Donovan Mitchell wore Bucks PG Damian Lillard out. And I don’t see that changing Wednesday. Dame is one of the worst perimeter defenders in the NBA and Bucks starting SG Malik Beasley isn’t much better.
Milwaukee Bucks' starters look on while getting crushed by the Cavaliers at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland, Ohio. (Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports)
Cleveland is 7-1 ATS during its current winning streak. As road ‘dogs of +4.5 or greater, the Cavaliers are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS. Their only losses and non-cover was against the Boston Celtics.
Things aren’t going well in Milwaukee. Despite their 30-17 record, the Bucks randomly fired 1st-year head coach Adrian Griffin Tuesday. They are replacing Griffin with Doc Rivers. There were rumblings of Giannis and other Bucks vets not jiving with Griffin.
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Plus, Milwaukee fell from 4th in defensive rating last season to 21st through the 1st 43 games this season. The defensive decline shouldn’t come as a surprise though. The Bucks traded one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA (PG Jrue Holiday) for Lillard.
Their pick-and-roll (PnR) defense went from bad to worse. Milwaukee has the 3rd-worst defensive efficiency vs. PnR action through the ball handler. Cleveland runs PnR action through the ball handler at the 6th-highest rate in the NBA.
My prediction: Bucks 117, Cavaliers 114
Phoenix Suns (-2) at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET
This is a revenge game for the Suns who got crushed 128-114 at home Christmas 2023 by the Mavs. Luka Doncic had an all-time Christmas day performance. Doncic put up 50 points with 6 rebounds, 15 assists, 4 steals, and 3 blocks.
However, Phoenix held a 1-point lead entering the 4th quarter before squandering that game. The Suns didn't have SG Bradley Beal on Christmas either. Per CTG, Phoenix has the best 5-man lineup in the NBA when Beal, Kevin Durant, and Devin Booker are on the floor together.
Dallas Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic shoots a floater over Devin Booker and Kevin Durant on NBA Christmas at Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona. (Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports)
Now that their Big 3 is available, the Suns are trending up. They are on a 6-game winning streak and have the 2nd-best non-garbage time net rating in the NBA over that span, according to CTG. Dallas is 2-3 straight up (SU) with a -6.9 net rating and -3.6 spread differential during this stretch.
Lastly, both Luka and Mavericks SG Kyrie Irving are "questionable" for Wednesday. If both are out we are going to get a good number and, if they suit up, this spread will be closer to a "pick 'em". I'm willing to get my money in early though because the Suns have been playing well enough to cover this spread with Kyrie and Luka out there.