4 'Horsemen' For Wyndham Championship 2023 Include Justin Thomas, Sam Burns

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The Wyndham Championship 2023 is the final PGA Tour event of the 2022-23 regular season. Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina hosts the Wyndham 16th consecutive season. 

Reigning Wyndham champion Tom Kim opted out of this year’s tournament because of a lingering ankle injury. After quadruple bogeying the 1st hole last year, Kim went on to win the Wyndham. 

Five previous Wyndham Championship winners (odds via GolfOdds.com)

Joohyung

Joohyung "Tom" Kim holds the Wyndham Championship 2022 trophy after winning at Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina. (David Jensen/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

There are several golfers on the playoff bubble. For the 1st time ever, the field for the FedExCup Playoffs is only the top 70 golfers on Tour this season. Golfers on the playoff bubble include Shane Lowry, Justin Thomas, Adam Scott, and Cam Davis. 

Sedgefield is a Par 70 course that plays to 7,131 yards. There are two Par 5s, four Par 3s, and 12 Par 4s with eight Par 4s from 400-450 yards.

Courses that crossover with Sedgefield Country Club

Last week's 3M Open 2023 was another loser for ya boy. My PGA Tour 2022-23 betting balance dropped to -42.91 units (u) after a -2.95u effort at the 3M Open. I.e. my cursed PGA Tour season continues.

Wyndham Championship 2023 'Horses for the course'

Look for sportsbooks that payout placement bets in full instead of applying “dead heat rules”. My strategy for the 3M Open is to earn 20u if one of my guys wins. Otherwise, I'm betting placements to profit 1u plus the outright wager lost.

Sam Burns

Aka Bermuda Burns, Sam is +0.68 Strokes Gained (SG): Putting on Bermuda grass greens over his career. Burns is 15th in this field for SG: Putting on Bermuda over the last 24 rounds and 8th in SG: Putting on fast greens.

In his only other start at Sedgefield, Burns finished T13 at +10000 in the 2020 Wyndham. That was definitely a stronger Wyndham field because it was pre-LIV Tour.

The favorites in 2020 included Brooks Koepka (+1400), Tommy Fleetwood (+1800), Patrick Reed (+1800) and Justin Rose (+2000) and Jordan Spieth (+5000) is in that field as well.

Sam Burns reacts on the 15th green during the final round of the Wyndham Championship 2020 at Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina.

Sam Burns reacts on the 15th green during the final round of the Wyndham Championship 2020 at Sedgefield. (Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

None of them are teeing it up this year at the Wyndham. But, Burns gained strokes in the five most important golf stats at the 2020 Wyndham including +3.2 SG: Putting and +6.4: SG: Tee-to-Green (T2G). 

He’s 2nd in total SG at the comp courses to Sedgefield during that stretch. Burns won the Charles Schwab last season. Burns won the Valspar Championship twice.

Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Florida hosts the Valspar and also has Bermuda grass greens. Burns is an LSU alum and plays well down South. 

Burns poses with the trophy after winning the 2023 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club in Texas.

Burns poses with the trophy after winning the 2023 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club in Texas. (Harry How/Getty Images)

Over the last 24 rounds, Burns is 6th in this field in Par 4 Efficiency (EFF): 400-450 yards. Sedgefield has eight Par 4s in that range. He is 4th in Bogey Avoidance as well over the last 24 rounds. Finally, Burns has legit “win equity”.

He has five wins over the past three seasons including the WGC Dell Match Play in March. Burns is "nails" on the greens. If Burns is accurate off-the-tee and dialed in with the irons, he is a threat to win any tournament. 

My 1st thoroughbred for Sedgefield: Sam Burns

Justin Thomas

There isn't a lot of analysis for this pick. In fact, I had Alex Smalley on my betting card when his odds for the Wyndham opened at around +6000. Now that Smalley is the same price as Thomas (+3500), I'm buying low on JT.

Thomas has the 2nd-most scoring chances in this field over the last 24 rounds. JT's ball striking isn't the issue, it's his putting. This season on Tour, Thomas is 25th in SG: T2G but 158th in SG: Putting.

He has never missed the FedExCup Playoffs and ranks 79th in the FedExCup Standings entering the Wyndham. Thomas has missed the cut in three of his last four starts and five of his past seven.

Justin Thomas watches his shot from the 4th tee during the 1st round of the 3M Open 2023 at TPC Twin Cities.

Justin Thomas watches his shot from the 4th tee during the 1st round of the 3M Open 2023 at TPC Twin Cities. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

Again, since on the top 70 golfers advance to the playoffs this year, Thomas needs a top-10 or better this week. While 2022-23 has been Thomas's worst season, he does have some bright spots.

JT finished T9 at the Travelers in June, which is an "elevated event" at a course similar to Sedgefield (TPC River Highlands). He placed T4 at the Phoenix Open (another "elevated event") and T10 in the Valspar at a comp course.

This a "leap of faith" bet. Sedgefield doesn't play a lot of defense and Thomas will be able to ball-strike his way around this course. If JT can putt, he can win. If he cannot putt, his elite T2G numbers will have to carry him to a much-needed top-10 finish.

My 2nd thoroughbred for Sedgefield: Justin Thomas

Adam Schenk

Two things lower Schenk in my Wyndham Championship power rankings. First, he is only 61st in this field for scoring opportunities over the last 24 rounds.

The second reason is a bigger issue. Schenk has four missed cuts in his last five Wyndham Championship starts with an uninspiring T51 sandwiched in between. 

Adam Schenk plays a shot on the 9th hole during the 2nd round of the 2022 Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield.

Adam Schenk plays a shot on the 9th hole during the 2nd round of the 2022 Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield. (Eakin Howard/Getty Images)

I have some rebuttals for those knocks against Schenk’s chances to win the Wyndham Championship. Namely, Schenk is having perhaps the best season of his career.

Schenk has two 2nd-place finishes at the Charles Schwab in May and the Valspar in March. I already mentioned above that both courses for the Charles Schwab and Valspar compare to Sedgefield. 

The excuse for Schenk not generating many scoring chances is “at least he’s converting on those chances”. He has to be. In his last six starts, Schenk has two T7s at the Memorial and Rocket Mortgage and a T4 at the John Deere in July. 

Adam Schenk lines up a putt on the 3rd green during the 3rd round of the John Deere Classic 2023.

Schenk lines up a putt on the 3rd green during the 3rd round of the John Deere Classic 2023. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Furthermore, Schenk is +2.5 SG: Putting per event over his last five starts and +1.2 over the last 10. In his last 24 rounds on fast greens, Schenk ranks 10th in this field for SG: Putting. 

Lastly, Schenk is 2nd in my stats-based model over the last 36 rounds. During that stretch, Schenk is 3rd in this field for PROX: 150-175 yards, 8th in Par 4 EFF: 400-450 yards, 7th in SG: APP, and 11th in SG: BS. 

My 3rd thoroughbred for Sedgefield: Adam Schenk

Hideki Matsuyama

If Hideki could putt, he would have a win this season. Matsuyama is 2nd in my 2023 Wyndham power rankings and the most recent major winner in this field (2021 Masters). 

He has the most scoring chances in this field over his last 24 rounds and is 6th in my stats-based model. Matsuyama has world-class ball striking and iron play. Over the last 36 rounds, Matsuyama leads the field in Bogey Avoidance. 

Hideki Matsuyama looks on from the 9th green during the 2nd round of the 2022 Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield.

Hideki Matsuyama looks on from the 9th green during the 2nd round of the 2022 Wyndham at Sedgefield. (Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

Matsuyama has a T15, T3, and T11 in three Wyndham starts and missed cuts in his other four. But, Sedgefield is an easy track and Matsuyama should have a lot of looks for birdie this week.

There have been questions regarding Matsuyama’s health for most of this season. Matsuyama will definitely make the 1st round of the playoffs (FedEx St. Jude Championship), which is for the top 70 golfers on Tour this season. 

By playing this week, Hideki is saying he is healthy enough to try and improve his standings in the FedExCup Playoff rankings. Only the top 30 golfers make the 2nd round of the playoffs (BMW Championship). 

Matsuyama prepares to putt on the 18th green during the 3rd round of the 3M Open 2023 at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota.

Matsuyama prepares to putt on the 18th green during the 3rd round of the 3M Open 2023 at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

Instead of ensuring Hideki’s outright bet with a placement wager, I’m going to take Matsuyama in a head-to-head over Shane Lowery at -120. The great thing about tournament matchups is the other golfer can fail.

Obviously, I think Matsuyama plays well this week. But, if he doesn’t, maybe I can “luck-box” into a win by Lowry choking. Both golfers have similar weaknesses but Matsuyama is in better form.

Shane Lowry and Matsuyama walk up a fairway during the Travelers Championship 2023 at TPC River Highlands in Connecticut.

Shane Lowry and Matsuyama walk up a fairway during the Travelers Championship 2023 at TPC River Highlands in Connecticut. (Rob Carr/Getty Images)

Over the last 24 rounds, Hideki is 55th in SG: Putting on Bermuda grass and 72nd in SG: Putting on fast greens. Whereas Lowry is 140th in SG: Putting on Bermuda and 104th in SG: Putting on fast greens. At last year's Wyndham, Lowry was T83 and -7.4 SG: Putting.

During that stretch, Lowry is just 52nd in this field for Opportunities Gained. Moreover, Matsuyama ranks higher than Lowry in my stats-based model over the last 24, 36, and 75 rounds.

My 4th thoroughbred for Sedgefield: Hideki Matsuyama

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