3M Open 2023: 'Horses For The Course'
Consider my 3M Open 2023 "shrug bets" because, at this point in the PGA TOUR season, I'm just throwing darts. My colleague Dan Zaksheske and I make jokes about how I curse every golfer I back. That’s how bad I’m running lately.
The 151st Open Championship was the latest volume in the horror story that is my betting season. Outside of Hideki Matsuyama cashing a top-20 bet and a Tom Kim final round flurry to beat Cameron Young in a head-to-head, I bricked The Open.
Entering this year's 3M Open, my PGA Tour betting balance is -39.96 units (u) after sinking -5.16u at The Open Championship. I could give a sob story but that's pointless and no one cares. I need to turn it around if I want to get my head above water.
There are only two more full-field PGA Tour events before the FedExCup Playoffs. This week the Tour returns to the States for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota.
TPC Twin Cities is a Par 71 course with fast Bentgrass greens and last year it played to 7,431 yards. There are four Par 3s, three Par 5s, and 11 Par 4s. All three Par 5s range from 550-600 yards.
Previous 3M Open winners (odds via GolfOdds.com)
Prior to Finau last year, the 1st three 3M Open champs were 125-to-1 longshots. TPC Twin Cities' dramatic layout and putting variance contribute to random golfers showing up on the 3M Open leaderboards.
I’m shopping for accurate ball strikers because of all the water hazards at TPC Twin Cities. Also, the 3M Open is a “putting contest”. Last year, the top-15 golfers on the 3M Open’s leaderboard picked up strokes with the putter.
3M Open 2023 'Horses for the course'
Look for sportsbooks that payout placement bets in full instead of applying “dead heat rules”. My strategy for the 3M Open is to earn 20u if one of my guys wins. Otherwise, I'm betting placements to profit 1u plus the outright wager lost.
Aaron Rai
This is a "value bet" because Rai is 3rd on my 3M Open 2023 power rankings and he is only 13th by the odds to win. Also, it's is my 1st time betting Rai even though he's a very accurate ball striker.
Over the last 36 rounds, Rai is 3rd in this field for SG: Ball striking (BS), 6th in SG: Approach (APP), and 9th in Good Drives Gained, which blends driving distance with accuracy.
Furthermore, Rai is 2nd in this field for Par 5 scoring during that stretch and 19th in Birdies-or-Better (BoB) Gained. TPC Twin Cities provides a bunch of scoring opportunities, especially on its Par 5s.
Aaron Rai of England reacts to his missed putt on the 13th green during the final round of the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club in Michigan. (Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images)
Rai is making his 3M Open debut but is playing solidly this season on Tour. Recently, Rai tied for 9th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in early July and tied for 3rd at the RBC Canadian Open in June.
I'm concerned about Rai's putting. But, prior to his last start at the Genesis Scottish Open 2023, Rai picked up strokes on the greens in his previous three starts. Plus, Rai is +6.2 SG: Tee-to-Green (T2G) and +4.0 SG: APP in his last five events.
My 1st thoroughbred for TPC Twin Cities: Aaron Rai
Lucas Glover
Behind Matsuyama, Glover is 2nd in my 3M Open 2023 power rankings. His last win on Tour was the 2021 John Deere Classic, which was played at another softee-cup course, TPC Deere Run.
In 2021, Glover picked up strokes on the greens in four straight starts heading to his John Deere win. He has a T4 at the Rocket Mortgage, T6 at the John Deere, and 6th at the Barbasol. One of the keys to Glover's recent success has been his hot putting.
He was actually -0.7 SG: Putting at the Barbasol but +3.6 SG: Putting at the John Deere and +5.4 at the Rocket Mortgage. If Glover's putter stays hot, he has the ball striking to contend at the 3M Open.
Lucas Glover looks over a putt on the 17th green during the final round of the 3M Open 2019 at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Glover missed back-to-back 3M Open cuts in 2020 and 2022 and tied for 7th in 2019. Yet the field was stronger at the 3M Open 2019-20 since it was pre-LIV Tour.
A lot of current PGA Tour stars played in the 3M Open 2019 such as 2023 U.S. Open winner, Wyndham Clark, and the 2023 Champion Golfer of the Year, Brian Harman.
Over the last 24 rounds, Glover is 1st in my stats-based model. He leads the field in SG: BS, is 2nd in Good Drives Gained, 3rd in SG: APP, 12th in BoB Gained, and 6th in Bogey Avoidance in that span.
My 2nd thoroughbred for TPC Twin Cities: Lucas Glover
Eric Cole
Cole bettors were left with a bad taste in their mouths after his finish at the Scottish Open. He shot a final round 79 (+9) at the Scottish Open and tied for 60th.
Entering Sunday of the Scottish Open, Cole was -10, which would’ve tied for 3rd place had Cole finished with that score. But, the scoring conditions were difficult in the Round 4 of the Scottish Open.
Also, The Renaissance Club (host of the Scottish Open) is a different setup than TPC Twin Cities. That is a links course while TPC Twin Cities is a parkland-style track. There are both ample scoring chances and danger at TPC Twin Cities.
Cole excels vs. either condition. He lost to Chris Kirk at The Honda Classic 2023, which is played at one of the toughest courses in the Florida Swing, PGA National, with a lot of water on the property.
Eric Cole hits a shot during the final round of The Honda Classic 2023 at the PGA National Champion Course in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. (Aaron Gilbert/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
He also finished 5th at the 2023 Mexico Open, one of the easiest courses on Tour. He ranks 7th in this field for total SG at courses with easy scoring conditions over the last 36 rounds.
The 3M Open turn into putting contests and Cole is elite on the greens. Over the last 12 rounds, Cole ranks 3rd in this field for SG: Putting on Bentgrass and 2nd in SG: Putting on fast greens.
Finally, Cole is outside the top-25 for odds to win this event but 14th in my 3M Open power rankings. Cole was +3000 at the John Deere Classic, which has the same field strength as the 3M Open.
My 3rd thoroughbred for TPC Twin Cities: Eric Cole
Doug Ghim
Based on my bankroll, this spot was reserved for either Ghim or Austin Eckroat. Ghim is 6th on my 3M Open 2023 power rankings and Eckroat is 7th. A lot of PGA Tour handicappers I respect are on Eckroat this week, which caused his odds to drop.
Both Ghim and Eckroat opened at +8000. You can still find 80-to-1 tickets on Ghim but those odds are long gone for Eckroat. Actually, at DraftKings, Eckroat is down to +4500.
But, over the last 24 rounds, Ghim has been playing really good golf. Ghim ranks 4th in this field in my stats-based model over that span. He is 4th in Good Drives Gained, 6th in SG: BS, 12th in Bogey Avoidance, and 14th in SG: APP during that stretch.
Doug Ghim walks to the 1st green during the 3rd round of the 3M Open 2022 at TPC Twin Cities. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Ghim missed the Scottish Open cut in his previous start but finished T19 at the Byron Nelson (played at another TPC track), T12 at the Canadian Open, and T15 at the Travelers, aka an "elevated event".
Lastly, Ghim was T16 at the 3M Open in 2022 and T18 at the 3M Open in 2020 with a missed cut sandwiched in between. Ghim has picked up strokes with the irons and T2G in all three starts. He was +4.2 SG: Putting and +2.1 SG: Putting in the two 3M Open cuts he made.
My 4th thoroughbred for TPC Twin Cities: Doug Ghim
K.H. Lee
This is a “vibe bet” because K.H. aka TPC Lee plays well at TPC courses. He won back-to-back AT&T Byron Nelsons from 2021-22 for his only two victories on the PGA Tour.
Lee tied for 2nd at the 2021 Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. The Phoenix Open typically ends with a similar winning score as past 3M Opens and is obviously a comp course to TPC Twin Cities.
He skipped last year’s 3M Open but tied for 6th in 2021, which must have been a career-year for Lee. His T6 finish at the 3M Open 2021 is more impressive when you consider this was pre-LIV Tour so the field was tougher.
Granted, Lee isn’t playing nearly as well entering this year’s 3M Open as he was in 2021. In fact, Lee has missed the cut five of his last six starts. Four of those starts were either majors or newly created “elevated events”.
K.H. Lee at the 2nd tee of the 3M Open 2021 at TPC Twin Cities Blaine, Minnesota. (Bryan Singer/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The one cut Lee did make at the Scottish Open, he finished 72nd after shooting a final round 77 (+7). However, those field are far tougher than this week’s.
For what it’s worth, Lee is 14th in this field for Good Drives Gained over the last 36 rounds and 11th in Par 5 Efficiency: 550-600 yards. All three Par 5s at TPC Twin Cities are within that distance.
Again, there are water hazards all over the place at TPC Twin Cities so Good Drives will help golfers stay away from dangers. Plus, the 3M Open is a birdie fest and you need to take advantage of Par 5s if you’re going to contend here.
My 5th thoroughbred for TPC Twin Cities: K.H. Lee
Check out the Hot Links golf gambling show hosted by Geoff Clark on the OutKick Bets podcast feed. New episodes drop Tuesdays for most full-field PGA Tour events in the 2022-23 season.