3M Open 2023 Head-To-Head Bets Feature Hideki Matsuyama Vs. Sungjae Im

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The 3M Open 2023 at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota is the least exciting PGA Tour event since before the Super Bowl. The last major of the season wrapped up this past weekend with The 151st Open Championship.

3M OPEN 2023: ‘HORSES FOR THE COURSE’

All that's left for casual golf fans to possibly be interested in is the FedExCup Playoffs teeing off August 10th. That said, I've handicapped most PGA Tour tournaments this season and there's no football to stop me from gambling on the 3M Open.

Truth be told, I'm running bad in all things "golf betting" including head-to-head bets. Hence I'm only risking half-unit (u) wagers on the following ...

3M Open 2023 Tournament Matchups

Hideki Matsuyama (+100) > Sungjae Im

Sungjae has crushed TPC Twin Cities in his two 3M Open starts. Im tied for 2nd at last year's 3M Open and T15 in 2019. However, Matsuyama is 1st in my power rankings for this tourney and Sungjae is 12th.

In my stats-based model courtesy of FantasyNational.com, Matsuyama ranks 8th over the last 24 rounds (Sungjae is 56th) and 2nd over the last 36 rounds (Sungjae is 18th).

Plus, Hideki is generating the most scoring chances in this field over the last 24 rounds. While Sungjae is just busting out of a recent slump. Im was T20 at The Open this past weekend but has missed four cuts in his last eight events otherwise.

Hideki Matsuyama hits his approach shot on the 10th hole during the pro-am prior to the 3M Open 2022 at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota.

Hideki Matsuyama hits his approach shot on the 10th hole during the pro-am prior to the 3M Open 2022 at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

Sungjae is a better putter than Matsuyama. Over the last 12 rounds, Im ranks 43rd in Strokes Gained (SG): Putting on Bentgrass greens (Hideki is 142nd). But, the greens are easy at TPC Twin Cities and Matsuyama is 5th in total SG at easy courses and Sungjae is 13th.

Finally, Hideki is the 3rd-best ball striker in this field over the last 24 rounds and Im is 58th in SG: Ball striking (BS). Matsuyama also leads the field in SG: Approach (APP) and Bogey Avoidance over that span.

BET: 0.5u on Hideki Matsuyama (+100) over Sungjae Im at DraftKings

Hideki Matsuyama's odds vs. Sungjae Im for the 3M Open 2023 at TPC Twin Cities from DraftKings.

Hideki Matsuyama's odds vs. Sungjae Im for the 3M Open 2023 at TPC Twin Cities from DraftKings.

Stephan Jaeger (-115) > Ryan Fox

Jaeger was an honorable mention to make my 3M Open 2023 betting card because he is 8th on my power rankings. Fox on the other hand is 42nd however that's skewed. My golf modeler, Fantasy National, uses shot-link data from the PGA Tour.

Fox's last two events — Genesis Scottish Open 2023 and The 151st Open Championship — don't have shot-link data. Fox was T12 at the Scottish Open and T42 at The Open. Jaeger didn't play in the UK-Swing.

Stephan Jaeger line up a putt the during the 3rd round of the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas.

Stephan Jaeger line up a putt the during the 3rd round of the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. (Eston Parker/ISI Photos/Getty Images).

That said, Fox is more of a DP World Tour Pro who goes big-game hunting on the Tour. Jaeger is a full-time PGA Tour pro. Six of Fox's last seven PGA Tour tournaments have been "elevated events".

Entering the 3M Open 2023, Jaeger was T13 at the John Deere Classic and T9 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, both of which are played at comp courses to TPC Twin Cities. Jaeger is 15th in total SG at comp courses over the last 12 rounds.

BET: 0.58u on Stephan Jaeger (-115) over Ryan Fox at DraftKings

Stephan Jaeger's odds vs. Ryan Fox for the 3M Open 2023 at TPC Twin Cities from DraftKings.

Stephan Jaeger's odds vs. Ryan Fox for the 3M Open 2023 at TPC Twin Cities from DraftKings.

Taylor Pendrith (+100) > Garrick Higgo

Both of these guys whale the ball off-the-tee (OTT) but Pendrith is in better form. Pendrith finished T6 at the Barbasol and T14 at the Rocket Mortgage coming into the 3M Open 2023.

But, Higgo's iron-play has been awful lately. Over the last 36 rounds, Higgo ranks 146th in this field for SG: APP. Since iron-play is the most predictive stat in golf, SG: APP carries the biggest weight in my model.

Taylor Pendrith plays his shot from the 1st tee during the 2nd round of the Barbasol Championship 2023 at Keene Trace Golf Club.

Taylor Pendrith plays his shot from the 1st tee during the 2nd round of the Barbasol Championship 2023 at Keene Trace Golf Club. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

With that in mind, Pendrith is 40th in my 3M Open 2023 power rankings and Higgo is 60th. Pendrith ranks at least 27 spots ahead of Higgo in my stats-based model over the last 24, 36, and 75 rounds.

Pendrith is making his 3M Open debut. However, Higgo missed the cut at the 3M Open 2022. He was -7.4 SG: Tee-to-Green, -5.1 SG: OTT, and -4.8 SG: APP last year.

BET: 0.5u on Taylor Pendrith (+100) over Garrick Higgo at DraftKings

Taylor Pendrith's odds vs. Garrick Higgo for the 3M Open 2023 at TPC Twin Cities from DraftKings.

Taylor Pendrith's odds vs. Garrick Higgo for the 3M Open 2023 at TPC Twin Cities from DraftKings.

Check out the Hot Links golf gambling show hosted by Geoff Clark on the OutKick Bets podcast feed. New episodes drop Tuesdays for most full-field PGA Tour events in the 2022-23 season.