3 Pristine Picks For Thursday's Sweet 16 Games In The NCAA Tournament

After face-planting during the conference tournaments, I rallied to make some of my money back during the 2024 NCAA Tournament. I came into the Big Dance 3-6 in conference tourney games and have gone 8-5 since. This is rare for me, but my bracket hasn't been busted heading into the Sweet 16. Granted, it probably helps that this is the chalkiest NCAA Tournament in recent seasons. 

LISTEN to the OutKick Best with Geoff Clark Podcast: 2024 Sweet 16 Gambling Powwow ft. Dan Z & Scott Martin

Regardless, I'm moving forward as if I'm a college basketball expert. I've been hanging out with my buddies Ken Pom, Bart Torvik, and Erik Haslam this week and I'm confident in the insights they've provided. In light of said "confidence", I'm going to be dealing out a couple of 2-unit (u) bets for Thursday and Friday's Sweet 16 games. God willing, they hit and I can profit off of this racket. 

NCAA Tournament 2024 Picks: Thursday's Sweet 16 Card 

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing. 

West Region: 6-seed Clemson vs. 2-seed Arizona (-7.5), 7:09 p.m. ET 

Bettors are falling in love with this Clemson team. Sports betting reporter Ben Fawkes tweeted Wednesday morning that the Tigers are the fifth-most bet team in the Sweet 16 at DraftKings. But, Clemson is turning into a public underdog, which tends to get slaughtered by sportsbooks and I love Arizona's roster. The Wildcats have four 3-point shooters surrounding a 7-foot big in their starting 5. 

The Arizona Wildcats watching a technical free throw a 2024 NCAA Tournament vs. the Dayton Flyers at Vivint Smart Home Arena-Delta Center in Utah. (Gabriel Mayberry-USA TODAY Sports)

Arizona guards Caleb Love, Pelle Larsson, Kylan Boswell and forward Keshad Johnson are all above-average 3-point shooters. Love is the 2024 Pac-12 Player of the Year. Larsson and Johnson are shooting 40+% from behind the arc. Wildcats C Oumar Ballo is All-Pac-12 First Team, averaging a double-double: 12.9 points per game and 10.0 rebounds. Ballo is also on the Pac-12 All-Defensive team. 

Adding to that, Arizona is more battle-tested. The Wildcats are 6-1 vs. teams in the top 25 of Ken Pom's rankings with a +15.4 scoring margin. Finally, this crowd will be overwhelmingly pro-Arizona. The West Region Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games are at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. There will be a lot of Arizona alumni packing that place out. 

Bet 1.1u on Arizona -7.5 (-110), which is several legal U.S. sportsbooks. The Wildcats are playable up to -8. 

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West Region: 4-seed Alabama (+5) vs. 1-seed North Carolina, 9:39 p.m. ET

One of UNC's only weaknesses is an inability to force turnovers. The Tar Heels are 310th out of 362 D-1 schools in defensive turnover rate, per Ken Pom. This gives me faith that the Crimson Tide can run their offense, which is very good. Alabama ranks fourth in offensive efficiency and 10th in effective field goal shooting. 

Furthermore, Crimson Tide Second Team All-American PG Mark Sears is the best player on the floor despite North Carolina PG R.J. Davis being a First Team All-American. Davis has better teammates, but Sears has a better offensive rating (129.2-121.5), assist rate (22.3-19.6%), and effective field goal shooting (59.9-53.2%). 

Alabama Crimson Tide PG Mark Sears drives the ball up the court vs. the Charleston Cougars during the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

Not to mention, this game is either mis-priced or has a sketchy spread. The Tar Heels were -3.5 favorites vs. 8-seed Michigan State Spartans in the Round of 32 and the Crimson Tide are better than the Spartans. Bettors must think they are getting a good deal because roughly 90% of the money is on UNC at the time of writing, according to Pregame.com. 

Of my three bets for Thursday's Sweet 16 games, this is probably my weakest. A large portion of this handicap is based on reports that the public is hammering North Carolina. Call it a hunch, but this will be a one-possession game either way and I'll take the points. Even if UNC is up big early, Alabama has the shooting to backdoor cover the spread. 

Bet 1.15u on Alabama +5 (-115) at DraftKings. Give me the Crimson Tide down to +3.5. 

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East Region: 3-seed Illinois (+105) vs. 2-seed Iowa State, 10:09 p.m. ET

One of my things about college basketball is the Big 12 being overrated. I'm putting my money where my mouth is for this game and the Duke-Houston game Friday. The Cyclones had the 346th-toughest non-conference schedule, per Ken Pom. Nine of Iowa State's 13 non-Big 12 opponents during the regular season were outside Ken Pom's top-248 teams in net efficiency. 

More importantly, Fighting Illini guard Terrence Shannon is the best player on the floor and maybe the best player in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Since February, Shannon is scoring 26.5 points per game on 63.6% true shooting, which accounts for 2-point, 3-point, and free-throw shooting. 

Plus, Illinois has two strength-on-weakness edges over Iowa State. The Fighting Illini are 16th in offensive rebounding rate, according to Ken Pom. Their offensive FT/FGA rate is 4.2% higher than the national average. The Cyclones are 229th in defensive FT/FGA and 196th in defensive rebounding. 

Lastly, Illinois has a much better shot profile. The Fighting Illini attempts a higher rate of "close 2-pointers" and attempts a lower rate of inefficient, long-mid-range jumpers, per Bart Torvik. Illinois is +10.0% in 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) differential while Iowa State has a -13.0% 3PAr differential. 

Bet 2u on the Fighting Illini's moneyline (+105) at Caesars. For the record, this is my first 2u play of the 2024 NCAA Tournament. 

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