3 'Square' NBA Bets For Thursday Include Clippers Over Warriors
The NBA giveth and taketh away. Well, in my case Wednesday, the opposite is true. I cashed all three best bets — including one lucky win — after a 1-2 Tuesday. My San Antonio Spurs +3.5 bet came through when they out-scored the Lakers by 15 in the fourth quarter of a 122-119 loss.
With that in mind, after Thursday, I could be in the black betting the NBA for the first time since November. My goal is to be up money in the Association by Christmas. It would help to cash at least two of my three ...
NBA Thursday Best Bets
OVER 225 in Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics, 7:30 p.m. ET
This is the second of a Cavaliers-Celtics back-to-back (B2B) in Boston with the C's winning the first, 120-113. That game went Over the 227-point total despite several things that held these offenses back. It was the fifth consecutive Cavaliers-Celtics Over since last season.
For instance, the Cavs attempted only 9 free throws Tuesday. Plus, Celtics All-Star Jayson Tatum was just 37 percent from the field and big Kristaps Porzingis shot 31%. I'm expecting bounce-back games from both or either.
Plus, the three referees assigned to this game have a combined Over/Under (O/U) record of 29-15. If Cleveland is more aggressive Thursday maybe the Cavaliers will get a bunch of freebies from an Over-friendly officiating crew.
Celtics wing Jayson Tatum goes to the basket on the Cleveland Cavaliers at TD Garden in Boston. (Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
Furthermore, the Cavs hit 19 threes vs. the Celtics Tuesday, which is 7.5 more than their per-game average. Since last season, Cleveland is 40.2 percent from behind the arc in three games in Boston. The Cavaliers just shoot well in TD Garden.
Also, Boston wing Jaylen Brown tweaked his ankle Tuesday and his status is in question. On paper, this feels like it would be a big loss, right? Brown is a 20+ point-per-game (PPG) player. But, more is put on Tatum and KP's plates if Brown is out and I kind of like how that sounds.
Lastly, Cleveland big Evan Mobley is out again Tuesday. According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), the Cavaliers allow opponents to score 8.8 MORE points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. I.E. Mobley's absence significantly hurts Cleveland's defense.
My prediction: Celtics 122, Cavaliers 112
OVER 230 in Brooklyn Nets at Denver Nuggets, 9 p.m. ET
I'm going to be square and put another Over on my NBA Thursday bet slip. My main factor is a hunch that there will be great shot-making in this game. The Nets upset the Nuggets 122-120 in Denver last season and both teams shot 50.0% from the field.
The Nuggets average 120.1 PPG at home on 51.3 percent shooting. Brooklyn averages more points on the road this season (118.6-115.6 PPG) and shoots 41.7 percent from 3-point land. More importantly, the Nets have a small frontcourt that Nikola Jokic can abuse.
Denver Nuggets big Nikola Jokic reacts to getting ejected in an NBA game versus the Chicago Bulls at the United Center in Chicago. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Jokic is well-rested thanks to his bogus ejection from Denver's 114-106 win at the Chicago Bulls Tuesday in only 15 minutes of action. And The Joker has been at monster at home. He is averaging 31.3 PPG on 56.5 percent shooting with a 134 offensive rating in Denver.
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If Jokic is "doing his thing" Thursday, his supporting cast will have wide-open looks. Nuggets All-Star Jamal Murray is in the Denver's projected starting 5 after getting a night off for injury management.
Finally, the Nets are playing the second of a B2B and upset the Phoenix Suns 116-112 Wednesday. Brooklyn has gone Over the total in its first two games with no rest by an average of 8.5 PPG.
My prediction: Nuggets 123, Nets 116
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers (-5.5), 10:30 p.m. ET
At this point, Golden State is a team to sell and LAC are a team to buy. Draymond Green is rightfully suspended indefinitely after hitting Suns big Jusuf Nurkic in the face Tuesday. The Warriors are already struggling and this just puts a further damper on their season.
Sans Draymond, I don't see Golden State's defense being the difference-maker in this game. But, the Dubs don't have the firepower to keep up with the Clippers. Steph Curry is the only Warrior playing well offensively.
LAC's defense has been good all season even after acquiring James Harden who sucks defensively. The Clippers are fifth in defensive rating but their offense is clicking lately. Over the past two weeks, LAC is ninth in offensive rating.
Clippers wing Kawhi Leonard handles the ball against Golden State Warriors SG Klay Thompson at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. (Tony Ding/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Clippers All-Star Paul George is questionable for this game. If PG cannot go Thursday, the Clippers have plenty of dudes that can step up. Clippers 6-man Norman Powell is shooting a team-high 44.2 percent from deep and Russell Westbrook is running their second unit.
They beat the Warriors 113-112 in LA December 2 but the Clippers failed to cover as -5 favorites. That Clippers team wasn't playing as well as this one and Draymond was in that game. Ultimately, I make LAC a -6.5 favorite over Golden State.