3 Scorching-Hot NBA Picks For Wednesday
After getting smacked around in the first seven weeks or so of the NBA season, I'm on a heater. My record is 12-6 and I'm up 6.0 units (u) over the past seven days.
Since my goal was to get above zero betting on the NBA by Christmas, I could mail it until this upcoming Monday. But, I'm not a chicken-s***. I'm here to gamble and have convinced myself that I have an edge betting basketball.
NBA Best Bets for Wednesday
Miami Heat at Orlando Magic (-5), 7 p.m. ET
The Magic are waxing teams at home. They are 11-1 straight up (SU) and 10-2 against the spread (ATS) at home with a +11.5 spread differential. This includes an active 9-game home winning streak with wins over the Milwaukee Bucks, Denver Nuggets, and Boston Celtics.
Orlando scores 13.7 MORE points per game (PPG) at home and allows 6.2 FEWER PPG. The Magic are shooting 50.2% from the field and 37.1% from behind the arc in their home gym. Whereas Miami scores 6.5 FEWER PPG on the road.
More importantly, Heat All-Star Jimmy Butler and big Kevin Love will miss Wednesday. According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Butler's +15.2 on/off net rating in non-garbage time leads Miami and Love is 2nd with a +12.9.
Magic wing Franz Wagner drives past Toronto Raptors big Chris Boucher during an NBA In-Season Tournament game at Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. (Rich Storry/Getty Images)
Furthermore, the Magic's size and aggressiveness are a problem for the Heat. Orlando has the best shot quality in the NBA and attempts the highest volume of shots at the rim, per CTG. The Heat are 29th in defensive field goal percentage at the rim.
Miami on the other hand has the 2nd-worst shot quality in the NBA. The Heat settle for too many contested mid-range jumpers. Their biggest strength, getting to the foul line, is nerfed sans Butler. Miami's offensive free-throw rate (FTr) drops by 10.0% when Butler is out of the game.
My prediction: Magic 114, Heat 105
Denver Nuggets at Toronto Raptors (+4), 7:30 p.m. ET
Aside from the 2023 NBA playoffs, the Nuggets have sucked on the road since last season. Denver is 7-8 SU and 5-10 ATS on the road this season. The Nuggets average nearly 11 FEWER PPG on the road and their shooting rate falls from 50.9% at home to 47.4% in away games.
Also, Toronto likes to push the pace and Denver struggles to defend in transition. According to CTG, the Raptors get out in transition at the 3rd-highest rate in the NBA and rank 5th in offensive efficiency in the fastbreak. The Nuggets are 29th in defensive efficiency in transition.
Raptors wing Scottie Barnes celebrates is pumped after a bucket against the Chicago Bulls in an NBA In-Season Tournament game at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Mark Blinch/Getty Images)
Moreover, Toronto is one of the few NBA teams that has the size and length to matchup with Denver. Raptors big Jakob Poeltl is another big-body Euro that can bang down low with Nikola Jokic. Toronto forwards Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Scottie Barnes offset Nuggets forwards Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr.
Finally, the Raptors have a better shot quality on both ends of the floor, per CTG. They allow fewer wide-open 3-pointers and attempt more wide-open threes. "Wide-open" is when the 3-point shooter has at least six feet of distance from the nearest defender.
My prediction: Raptors 116, Nuggets 113
Los Angeles Clippers (-3.5) at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET
This is a rivalry game and I expect Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic to go off Wednesday. However, the Clippers are on an 8-game winning streak and have a +12.8 net rating over that span. They are also healthier than Dallas.
LAC could be without Paul George Wednesday but they have more than enough firepower to make up for his possible absence. The Mavs on the other hand will be without starting big Dereck Lively and Kyrie Irving. Lively has a +10.8 on/off net rating, according to CTG.
Clippers wing Kawhi Leonard goes to the rack on the Dallas Mavericks at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. (Ringo Chiu/Xinhua via Getty Images)
Plus, both teams play a lot of half-court basketball. They are tied in half-court offensive efficiency. But, the Clippers are 2nd in points allowed per 100 half-court plays, per CTG, and the Mavs are 18th in half-court defensive efficiency.
Lastly, Clippers All-Star Kawhi Leonard has low-key been the best player in the NBA this month. Kawhi is averaging 29.3 PPG in December on a 75.0% true shooting rate (.623/.548/.941) with a +29 net rating.