3 Player Props: Lions Vs. 49ers 2024 NFC Title Game Sunday
The 3-seed Detroit Lions visiting the 1-seed San Francisco 49ers in the 2024 NFC title game is the nightcap of conference championship Sunday. Betting Unders in player props for marquee NFL games can be profitable.
There's more public money in these markets at this time of the season and the public loves betting Overs. With that in mind, I'm fading a couple of household names and "buying low" on a player that the public lost betting on last weekend.
3 NFC Championships Player Props
Lions RB David Montgomery Anytime TD (+160) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Montgomery's anytime TD prop was one of the most popular player props of the 2024 NFL divisional round. It closed at -120 and Montgomery failed to cash for backers. Because bettors got burned by him last week, Montgomery's anytime TD is now 80 cents on the dollar higher.
Lions RB David Montgomery runs for a TD in the 2024 NFC wild card game vs. the Los Angeles Rams at Ford Field in Detroit. (David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports)
However, at this price, Montgomery's anytime TD prop is an auto-bet. He has touchdowns in 12 of his 15 games this season including one against the Los Angeles Rams on Super Wild Card Weekend.
Finally, Detroit's offensive line has a huge run-blocking edge over San Francisco's defensive line. Per Pro Football Focus, the Lions have a +54% edge on the ground in the trenches for this game, which is the highest among the four offensive lines playing in the conference championships.
Niners TE George Kittle UNDER 4.5 Receptions (-115) at FanDuel
Kittle is more of a big-play threat than a possession receiver. He has fewer than five catches in 12 of his 17 games this season including the playoffs. Kittle has 5+ receptions in just one of his 10 career postseason contests.
Also, San Francisco's offense has a ton of mouths to feed such as RB Christian McCaffrey and WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Deebo left the divisional round early with a shoulder injury but was cleared to play in the NFC title game Sunday morning.
49ers TE George Kittle delivers a stiff-arm to Green Bay Packers safety Jonathan Owens in the 2024 NFC divisional round at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
Presumptively, Samuel playing Sunday eats into Kittle's target-share. Detroit's defense is weak on the outside but halfway decent in the middle of the field. On top of that, 49ers QB Brock Purdy targets his wideouts at a higher rate than the NFL average.
San Francisco pass rusher Nick Bosa UNDER 0.75 Sacks (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Ultimately, this is just a hunch-bet. Bosa is the 2022 NFL Defensive Player of the Year and he led the 49ers with 10.5 sacks this season. But, he is lining up against PFF's highest-graded tackle, Lions RT Penei Sewell.
Detroit Lions RT Penei Sewell blocks San Francisco 49ers DE Nick Bosa at Ford Field during an NFL Week 1 game in 2021. (Junfu Han/USA TODAY NETWORK)
Detroit QB Jared Goff is a righty so he'll looking directly at Bosa when he drops back to pass. Lastly, San Francisco's pass rush is a tad overrated. The 49ers are 20th in sack rate while the Lions offensive line gives up sacks at the 4th-lowest rate in the NFL.