3 Player Props For NBA Finals Game 1 Heat Vs. Nuggets
Game 1 of the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET Thursday, June 1st at the Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.
I've already locked in my Heat-Nuggets Game 1 bet of Miami plus the points. Now, I'm looking to fill out my betting card with some player props.
Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic drives against Heat C Bam Adebayo at Miami-Dade Arena. (Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
Typically, I prefer to bet sides and totals more than player props. But, this has been by far the most profitable regular season and playoffs with them.
Because I'm running hot in these player props, I'm upping my wagers to 0.75 units (u) from 0.25u and 0.5u bets. Friendly reminder: Always shop around for the best odds in player props.
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Denver Nuggets PG Jamal Murray Point Prop: 25.5
Miami allowed the 2nd-fewest points per game (PPG) to opposing point guards during the regular season. Murray scored just 14 points in the one Heat-Nuggets meeting he played this season. Granted, he is averaging 27.7 PPG in the playoffs.
Pinnacle Sportsbook differs from the U.S. legal sportsbooks in pricing Murray’s point prop. The Over for Murray’s point prop is more expensive than the Under.
At Pinnacle, Murray’s Over is at +102 and the Under is -130. Pinnacle is a “market-making shop” that the legal sportsbooks copy. This is a handicapping shortcut that has been profitable for me in these NBA playoffs.
Denver Nuggets PG Jamal Murray shoots it over Miami Heat SG Duncan Robinson at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. (C. Morgan Engel/Getty Images)
A lot of the NBA betting analysts I follow think the Heat are going to force Nikola Jokic beat them and not allow him to get his teammates open looks.
Murray relies on difficult shots anyhow and plays more iso-ball than any other Nugget. If Murray plays too much 1-on-1 basketball, I’ll live with him going Over his point total by hitting tough shots.
BET: Nuggets PG Jamal Murray UNDER 25.5 points in Game 1 (-110) at DraftKings
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Nuggets SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope made 3-pointers: 1.5
Sometimes you have to spend a little extra for the finer things in life. I’m not crazy about laying -145 on anything but KCP has been on-fire in these playoffs.
Caldwell-Pope is shooting 41.1% from behind the arc this postseason, which is actually down from his 42.3% regular-season 3-point rate.
KCP has made at least two 3-pointers in nine of his 15 games this postseason. He went 6-of-7 from 3-point land in the two Heat-Nuggets meetings this regular season and made at least two 3s in both games.
Nuggets SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope celebrates a 3-pointer vs. the Miami Heat at Ball Arena. (C. Morgan Engel/Getty Images)
Also, KCP was part of the 2019-20 Los Angeles Lakers team that beat the Heat in the NBA Orlando Bubble Finals. That series went six games and KCP hit at least two 3s in five of those games.
On one hand, it’s not apples-to-apples because they are completely different teams. But, this version of Jokic is as good of a shot-creator as LeBron James.
Caldwell-Pope is your quintessential 3-And-D guy who spaces the floor and defends multiple positions. As long as KCP doesn’t get into foul trouble, he’ll get enough run to put up the requisite volume of 3s to go Over this prop.
BET: Denver SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope OVER 1.5 made 3-pointers (-145) at DraftKings
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Miami Heat big Bam Adebayo Point Prop: 16.5
I’m going to about-face my analysis for the Under in Murray’s prop here. Bam’s Under for his point prop is pricier at Pinnacle than his Over. But, I just have a hunch Adebayo gets buckets in Game 1.
With all due respect to Jokic, he is the worst defender Bam has faced this postseason. In the 1st round, Adebayo matched up against Milwaukee Bucks big Brook Lopez, who was a finalist for 2022-23 NBA Defensive Player of the Year.
Then Bam faced New York Knicks elite defensive big, Mitchell Robinson in the 2nd round. The Knicks had one of the best defenses in the NBA this season and Robinson was their rim protection.
Heat C Bam Adebayo attacks the paint against the Nuggets at the Ball Arena in Denver. (Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images)
In the Eastern Conference Finals, Adebayo went against Boston Celtics bigs Al Horford and Robert Williams III. Everyone knows Williams is a great frontcourt defender. But, Horford is a savvy vet that is underrated defensively.
In two games vs. the Nuggets during the regular season, Bam averaged 20.5 PPG and went 17-for-18 from the charity stripe in those meetings.
Finally, Adebayo has played well in his 1st three Game 1s this postseason. Bam is averaging 19.3 PPG in those Game 1s He scored 22 vs. the Bucks in the 1st round and 20 vs. the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals.