3-Pack Of NBA Tuesday In-Season Tournament Best Bets
For those who care (not many of you I'm sure), the first-ever NBA In-Season Tournament wraps up group play Tuesday. Only two teams have punched their tickets into the knockout stage: Indiana Pacers and Los Angeles Lakers.
Unfortunately, I'm losing money betting on the NBA through the 1st six weeks of the season. Regardless, I'm loving this board and uncorking three ...
NBA Best Bets for Tuesday's In-Season Tournament
Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat (+4), 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off
The Bucks beat the Heat 122-114 on Oct. 30, barely covering as -7.5 home favorites. However, Miami was missing Bam Adebayo and wings Haywood Highsmith and Caleb Martin. These are the Heat's best defensive players and instrumental in defending Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Between Giannis and Damian Lillard, the Bucks run the sixth-highest frequency of isolation offense. Yet, the Heat are fourth in defensive efficiency vs. iso-ball. Since 2021, Giannis is averaging just 22.2 points per game (PPG) so clearly Miami is doing right.
Giannis Antetokounmpo drives the paint against Heat big Bam Adebayo in Game 4 of the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference First Round Playoffs at Kaseya Center in Miami. (Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
Finally, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra is one of the best coaches in the NBA. Milwaukee plays mostly half-court offense and Miami is 11th in defensive efficiency in the half-court, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
My prediction: Bucks 112, Heat 111
Houston Rockets (+4) at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off
I'm going to follow the line moving towards Houston. Per Pregame.com, a majority of the action is on Dallas but the Rockets have gone from +5.5 underdogs on the opener to +3.5 at some sportsbooks as of Tuesday afternoon.
Houston is taking professional money because it's ballin' recently. The Rockets are 7-3 straight up (SU) and 9-0-1 against the spread (ATS) over their last 10 games. While the Mavs have lost four of their last six games (2-4 ATS).
Those three losses for Houston were on the road to the Los Angeles Clippers and Lakers and Golden State Warriors. The Rockets destroyed the Denver Nuggets 105-86 with Nikola Jokic active in their previous outing Friday.
Denver Nuggets big Nikola Jokic attempts the shot vs. the Rockets during an NBA In-Season Tournament game at Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. (Alex Bierens de Haan/Getty Images)
Also, both teams play mostly half-court offense. However, Houston has a higher net rating in the half-court than Dallas. The Rockets play elite 3-point defense and the Mavericks spend most of their time behind the arc.
Lastly, Dallas has the better record but Houston is better when you look under the hoods of both teams. The Rockets is +4.2 in Basketball Reference's "Simple Rating System" (SRS), which blends scoring margin with strength of schedule and the Mavs are -0.6 SRS.
My prediction: Rockets 115, Mavericks 112
Golden State Warriors (+2.5) at Sacramento Kings, 10 p.m. ET tip-off
After flip-flopping back and forth on this game when sifting through the information, I've ultimately landed on the Warriors. Draymond Green returns from a 5-game suspension and Kings stretch-4 Keegan Murray is "doubtful" for Tuesday.
It's corny but Draymond is the heart and soul of the Dubs. Green orchestrates a lot of Golden State's offense through the high-post and dribble handoffs. More importantly, Draymond's defensive prowess is key to slowing down Sacramento All-Star PF Domantas Sabonis.
Sacramento Kings big Domantas Sabonis posts up Golden State Warriors PF Draymond Green at Chase Center in San Francisco. (Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)
Despite the Kings having a better record, the Dubs have a better net efficiency. DunksAndThree.com adjusts for strength of schedule and that site says Golden State has a +2.1 net rating and Sacramento is +0.3. Plus, the Warriors have a +2.2 SRS and the Kings are a flat-0.
Ultimately, this feels like a "buy-low" spot for Golden State. Steph Curry is the only Warriors playing well and Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins have been terrible this season. If Klay and Wiggins turn it around, Golden State will pile wins.