3 NFL Player Props For Week 6 Sunday 1 P.M. Games

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In Week 3, I did a column giving out 12 NFL player props for all the Sunday early and late afternoon games. It went spectacularly bad, which made me gun-shy. Handicapping player props is a different animal than spreads and totals.

But, after a couple of weeks of a self-imposed suspension from betting player props, I'm ready to back out there. The player props below correlate with how I think those games will play out. Also, these bets will be smaller units ("Pizza Bets") than my regular game wagers.

NFL Week 6 player props

Minnesota Vikings RB Alexander Mattison UNDER 50.5 rushing yards

The Vikings acquired RB Cam Akers for a reason. Akers is averaging 5.5 yards per rush and has a 60% success rate. Mattison averages 4.3 yards per rush with a 48% success rate.This is Akers’ 3rd game as a Viking so perhaps he gets more carries Sunday.

Mattison gained 54 rushing yards on 11 carries in Week 18 last year vs. the Bears. However, Chicago threw in the towel on the season by then and was sitting several starters. In the 1st Vikings-Bears game last year, Chicago held Mattison to just 19 rushing yards on 9 carries.

Minnesota Vikings RB Alexander Mattison is gang-tackled by the Chicago Bears at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.

Minnesota Vikings RB Alexander Mattison is gang-tackled by the Chicago Bears at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. (Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

Furthermore, the Bears are better vs. the run this year. Only four of 20 ball carriers the Bears have faced this season has rushed for more than 41 yards. Chicago’s defense is 11th in yards per rush allowed (3.7). 

Finally, the Vikings don’t even like running the ball. Minnesota has the 4th-highest passing rate over expectation and the 2nd-lowest run rate. 

Carolina Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard OVER 15.5 receiving yards 

First of all, Hubbard should be in line for more usage since Panthers 1st-string RB Miles Sanders is out with a concussion. 

Carolina rookie QB Bryce Young has the 2nd-lowest average depth of target in the NFL. The Panthers don’t have any game-breakers at WR either. Meaning, Hubbard could get a lot of check-down passes from Young. 

Carolina Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard warms up before the game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Carolina Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard warms up before the game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports)

Miami’s defense allows nearly 10 yards per catch to opposing RBs. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Dolphins LB David Long Jr. is 71st out of 78 eligible linebackers in pass coverage and LB Jerome Baker grades out 54th. 

Finally, PointsBet is “off-market” on this prop as well. Most legal U.S. sportsbooks list Hubbard’s receiving yards prop at 16.5. At Pinnacle Sportsbook, there is more juice on the Over. Pinnacle is a market-making sportsbook so PointsBet may eventually raise this number. 

Washington Commanders WR Curtis Samuel UNDER 35.5 receiving yards

This is another prop PointsBet is “off-market” on. Samuel’s receiving yards prop is 32.5 at most places including Pinnacle Sportsbook, where the Under is more expensive.

For the record, Samuel has at least 54 receiving yards in four of his five games this season. Yet, that makes this 35.5 number, with juice on the Under at Pinnacle, even more suspicious. 

Arizona Cardinals CB Jalen Thompson tackles Washington Commanders WR Curtis Samuel at FedExField in Landover, Maryland.

Arizona Cardinals CB Jalen Thompson tackles Washington Commanders WR Curtis Samuel at FedExField in Landover, Maryland. (Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

Also, Atlanta is allowing the 4th-fewest receiving yards to opposing WRs entering Week 6. PFF grades Falcons CB Dee Alford has the 5th-best CB in the NFL. Alford plays in the slot, where Samuel mostly lines up. PFF gives this Samuel-Alford matchup a 41.2 grade (out of 100), which is “below average”.