3 NBA Wednesday Money-Making Wagers Worth Betting
Guess what happened after I whined about going 50/50 betting the NBA? That's right, I split my two best bets Tuesday. Hey, at least it wasn't an 0-fer. Still, I'm getting paper cut to death by the juice. I'm eight games above-.500 for the season but down 35 cents on the dollar.
NBA Wednesday Best Bets
Milwaukee Bucks at Cleveland Cavaliers (+4), 7:30 p.m. ET
If you did a 5-point flip for home-court advantage, the Bucks would be -9 favorites at home vs. the Cavs. Meaning, Milwaukee -4 in Cleveland is too many points. In fact, these teams are closer than the casual NBA bettor or fan realizes.
For instance, DunkAndThrees.com accounts for strength of schedule. That website says the Cavaliers have a +2.4 adjusted net rating and the Bucks are +3.4. Basketball Reference does a "Simple Rating System" (SRS), which blends strength of schedule and scoring margin. That site gives Cleveland a +2.1 SRS and Milwaukee a +4.1 SRS.
Also, the Bucks beat the Cavs 119-111 in Cleveland Dec. 29th. Milwaukee covered as -5 favorites so bettors will be enticed by the "Bucks -4" price for Wednesday. Especially, considering the Bucks have a rest edge for this meeting.
Milwaukee Bucks PF Giannis Antetokounmpo and Cavaliers SG Donovan Mitchell fight for a loose ball at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland, Ohio. (Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports)
But, it feels like the sportsbooks are laying a trap. Despite losing, Cleveland out-scored Milwaukee in three of the four quarters last month. Yet, the Bucks crushed the Cavaliers 41-20 in the 3rd quarter.
Milwaukee attempted 19 more free throws (28-9) in that contest, which is an outlier performance. In their five meetings since 2022, the Bucks only average +1.4 more free throws per game than the Cavs.
Lastly, Cleveland All-Star Donovan Mitchell lit up Milwaukee a couple of weeks ago. Mitchell scored 34 points on 60.9% shooting with 9 assists and 6 rebounds. Spida only hit 2-of-10 threes so Mitchell left meat on the bone so to speak.
My prediction: Cavaliers 118, Bucks 114
Miami Heat (-126) at Toronto Raptors, 7:30 p.m. ET
There's a weird vibe with the Raptors because they are about to be trade-deadline sellers. Reportedly, Toronto is shopping All-Star PF Pascal Siakam. The Raptors already sent former wing OG Anunoby to the New York Knicks for SF R.J. Barrett and combo guard Immanuel Quickley.
Per CleaningTheGlass.com, Anunoby led the team in non-garbage time on/off net rating this season before the trade. Toronto's best current player (SF Otto Porter Jr.) and 5th-best (big Jakob Poeltl) by on/off net rating are "out" for this game.
Miami Heat wing Jimmy Butler shoots a floater on the Raptors during an NBA basketball game at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Mark Blinch/Getty Images)
All three of these Raptors suited up in their 1st game vs. the Heat Dec. 6th. Miami won in Toronto 112-103 as a +4 underdog, and won three of the "four factors". The Heat didn't have defensive anchor Bam Adebayo and leading scorer SG Tyler Herro either.
Finally, Miami is 10th in defensive rating (3rd this month) and the Raptors suck against bad defenses. Toronto is 2-11 straight up vs. top-10 defenses with an -8.3 adjusted net rating (22nd) and a -3.2 spread differential, according to CTG.
My prediction: Heat 114, Raptors 108
Charlotte Hornets at New Orleans Pelicans, 8 p.m. ET
My NBA gambling tend to be boring. Usually, I pick sides, sometimes I'll bet a total, and, even more infrequently, I'll bet player props. However, I found a derivative worth betting in Hornets-Pelicans: New Orleans -6.5 (-115) FIRST HALF at BetMGM, up to -7.5.
The Pelicans have the 2nd-best 1st-half margin in the NBA at +6.3 while Charlotte has the 2nd-worst at -6.3. Per EVanalytics.com, NOLA is 28-12-1 against the spread (ATS) in the 1st half. At home, the Pelicans are an NBA-best 15-4-1 ATS in the 1st half.
New Orleans Pelicans All-Star Zion Williamson squares up vs. Hornets forward Miles Bridges at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)
New Orleans beat Charlotte 112-107 in their 1st meeting this season last month. The Pelicans didn't cover as -9 road favorites. But, they did have a 11-point lead at halftime. This month, the Hornets are trailing 55.2-44.7 at the end of the 1st-half on average.