3 NBA Wednesday Best Bets: Pelicans-Clippers, 1 Team Total, 1 Player Prop
This past weekend, I was at my breaking point in terms of NBA gambling. I had taken seven straight losses between Saturday and Sunday and my NBA 2023-24 betting bankroll was down more than 10 units (u).
Yet, I'm starting to climb out of that hole and enter Wednesday on a 5-bet winning streak in the NBA. If you're a god-fearing person, please include me in your prayers. I need to get my head above water before next week's All-Star break.
NBA Wednesday Bet Slip
- The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Washington Wizards, 7 p.m. ET
My look in this game is WIZARDS Team Total UNDER 111.5 (-120) at BetMGM. Shout out to hoops handicapping homie, and fellow OutKick writer, David Troy for flagging this bet for me Tuesday night. Washington has gone Under its team total in nine of the last 10 games. D.C. has scored 110 or fewer points in nine consecutive Cavaliers-Wizards meetings.
Since Jan. 1st, Cleveland leads the NBA in defensive rating and Washington is 28th in offensive rating, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). The Cavs have held opponents to 110 or fewer points in eight of their last 10 games overall. Cleveland bigs Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen form the best defensive frontcourt in the NBA.
(Jeff Hanisch - USA TODAY Sports)
When Mobley and Allen are on the floor together, the Cavaliers allow just 107.8 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, per CTG. That ranks in the 96th percentile of all 5-man lineups in the NBA. Mobley and Allen are so good they make up for Cavaliers PG Darius Garland and SG Donovan Mitchell who are both bad defenders.
Finally, the Wizards are 21st in true shooting rate, which accounts for 2-point, 3-point, and free-throw shooting, and 20th in 3-point attempt rate. They rank 27th in offensive free-throw attempt rate and 29th in offensive rebounding rate. Washington won’t get to the foul line or easy second-chance points because Mobley and Allen protect the paint and clean the glass.
BET 1.2u on Wizards UNDER 111.5 team total (-120) at BetMGM.
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Toronto Raptors C Jakob Poeltl OVER 10.5 points vs. Charlotte Hornets
Poeltl has scored at least 11 points in 22 of his 39 games this season. He only scored 8 and 4 points in his 1st two games vs. the Hornets. However, this was before former Raptors forwards Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby were traded. Siakam led Toronto in usage rate before his trade to the Indiana Pacers.
(John Jones - USA TODAY Sports)
Also, this season, Charlotte C Mark Williams played in the 1st two Raptors-Hornets games. Williams leads Charlotte in defensive rating and on/off net rating. His loss diminishes an already terrible defense. Finally, the Hornets allow the most PPG to opposing centers.
BET 0.62u on Raptors C Jakob Poeltl OVER 10.5 points (-123) at Caesars Sportsbook
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New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Clippers (-7), 10 p.m. ET
I've seen the Pelicans lose this game against another elite team all the time. The Clippers are 8-2 straight up (SU) and 7-3 against the spread (ATS) at home vs. teams with a winning record. LAC has a +8.5 scoring margin in those games.
These teams split their 1st two meetings 1-1 SU and ATS with the road team winning and covering both. New Orleans’ win was Nov. 24th and James Harden’s 9th game as a Clipper. It took a little while for the Clippers to find their groove with Harden running the offense. But, after it all started clicking, LAC became one of the best teams in the NBA.
Since Dec. 1st, the Clippers are 26-5 SU and 21-10 ATS with the best non-garbage time net rating in the Association, per CTG. They beat the brakes off of the Pelicans, 111-95, in New Orleans Jan. 5th and both teams were at full strength. New Orleans PF Zion Williamson is "questionable" with a foot injury.
( )
Zion sat Jan. 31st but has played in the past two games. I’m guessing Williamson will suit up Wednesday because he played 22 minutes in NOLA’s 138-100 beatdown of the Raptors Monday. Zion’s availability is a "free-roll" though. If he misses Tuesday, great. If Zion plays, well, that’s okay too, because I’m that confident in the Clippers here.
My last reason for backing LAC Wednesday is they should light up the Pelicans from deep. The Clippers lead the NBA in 3-point shooting at 39.9% and the Pelicans are 2nd in defensive 3-point shooting. But, New Orleans’s 3-point percentage is misleading.
The Pelicans are 27th in wide-open 3-point attempt rate and their opponents are shooting an NBA-worst 35.8% on wide-open threes. "Wide-open" is when the 3-point shooter has six feet of distance from the nearest defender. The bottom line is if NOLA loses LAC’s 3-point shooters, the Clippers should cruise to a victory Wednesday.
BET 1.1u on the Clippers -7 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook. Gimme the Clippers up to -8.
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