3 NBA Thursday Best Bets From A Very Grumpy Gambler
Honestly, I cannot even use the words I want to describe how mad I am about the Los Angeles Clippers choking in a 116-112 loss Wednesday vs. the Los Angeles Lakers. OutKick is anti-cancel culture and even my bosses would cancel (fire) me for speaking my mind about the Clippers.
While handicapping the Detroit Pistons vs. Chicago Bulls game Tuesday I mentioned how the Pistons cost me more money than any other team in the NBA this season. Well, the Clippers have cost me more money than any team in professional or college sports since acquiring Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. It's at the point where I need to ban this team until the playoffs.
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I've said this a few times this season, but I mean it this time: That Clippers' loss Wednesday was the worst I've taken all season. Those betas squandered a 21-point, 4th-quarter lead as LeBron James massacred them. Of course, Kawhi and James Harden went missing in the final frame and deferred to Clippers 6-Man, SF Norman Powell.
Even though I should take a mental health day from betting basketball, I'll get back out there Thursday for a few reasons. First, I cannot get back to even if I don't bet the NBA. Second, for an NBA junkie, Thursday's slate is pretty sick. Third, I need something to throw on my other TVs when Gordon Ramsay's Next Level Chef is on.
NBA Thursday Best Bets
- The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
Utah Jazz at Orlando Magic (-6), 7 p.m. ET
This is a "great spot" for Orlando. The Magic are 8-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) as favorites between -4 and -7 with a +4.4 spread differential. They beat the Jazz 115-113 in Utah Nov. 2nd and Orlando covered as -1.5 road favorites. But, both teams are much tougher at home.
So, if the Magic can win and cover in Utah, albeit vs. a small spread, they should be able to win by margin in their home gym. Orlando is 19-7 SU and 18-8 ATS at home this season with a +6.9 scoring margin. The Jazz are 9-21 SU and 13-17 ATS on the road with a -10.6 scoring margin.
Orlando Magic PF Paolo Banchero reacts to a dunk vs. the Utah Jazz at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City. (Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports)
Both teams crash the glass and get easy putbacks. However, Orlando is 3rd in second-chance points per game (PPG) allowed and Utah is 20th. Also, the Magic have the 2nd-best shot quality in the NBA and attempt the highest rate of shots at the rim, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Finally, Utah is 25th in defensive rating and Orlando is 4th. The Jazz are 1-10 SU on the road vs. top-10 defenses with a -5.3 spread differential, according to CTG. While the Magic are 15-4 SU vs. bottom-10 defenses with a +4.7 spread differential.
Bet 1.12u on Orlando -6 (-112) at FanDuel. The Magic are playable up to -7.
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Atlanta Hawks (+1.5) at Brooklyn Nets, 7:30 p.m. ET
This is the front-end of a Hawks-Nets back-to-back (B2B) in Brooklyn with the 2nd leg tipping off Saturday. These teams split their 1st two regular-season meetings in Atlanta with the Hawks winning the 1st 147-145 in overtime and the Nets taking the 2nd 114-113.
Ultimately, I'm buying stock in Atlanta as long as All-Star PG Trae Young is out injured. Trae and Hawks combo guard Dejounte Murray don't belong in the same backcourt together and SG Bogdan Bogdanović is their best player by on/off net rating, per CTG.
Atlanta Hawks PG Dejounte Murray attacks the paint on Brooklyn Nets SF Mikal Bridges at State Farm Arena in Georgia. (Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, the Nets have fallen out of playoff contention and are 4.0 games back of Atlanta for the 10-seed out East. Brooklyn is 3-8 SU and 3-7-1 ATS this month with a -10.4 scoring margin and a -6.8 spread differential, according to CTG. I.e. Brooklyn is a team I'm looking to fade post-All-Star break.
Lastly, the Hawks can score with or without Young on the floor. They are 6th in offensive rating and the Nets are 22nd in defensive rating. Per CTG, Brooklyn is 3-19 SU vs. top-10 offenses with a -5.4 spread differential, which ranks last in the NBA.
Bet 1.08u on the Hawks +1.5 (-108) at Caesars. Give me Atlanta up to -2.
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Miami Heat (+5) at Denver Nuggets, 10 p.m. ET
I understand if you want to fade my Miami +5 bet here. The Heat are visiting the Nuggets in the Mile High City for a 2023 NBA Finals rematch. Denver is rolling right now and you never know what you're getting with Miami in the regular season.
But, the Heat are white-hot currently (pun intended) and could be getting back their 2nd-leading scorer, SG Tyler Herro. Miami is on a 5-game winning streak and an 8-game ATS winning streak. The Nuggets beat the Heat 4-1 last year in the NBA Finals without Herro. I contend Miami would've won at least two games if Herro played.
Miami Heat SF Jimmy Butler drives past Denver Nuggets PG Jamal Murray in Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals at Kaseya Center. (Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports)
Herro's ability to catch-and-shoot, create his own look, and operate the pick-and-roll takes offensive pressure off Jimmy Butler's shoulders. Furthermore, Miami has better half-court efficiency on both ends of the floor in February, according to CTG.
This is a "good spot" for the Heat. It's a revenge game, the Nuggets are on the 2nd of a B2B, and Miami is a better underdog than favorite. Since 2022, the Heat are 4-1 SU and ATS as road underdogs vs. teams playing on zero rest days with a +14.6 scoring margin.
Bet 1.1u on Miami +5 (-110) at FanDuel. The Heat are bet-able down to +4.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.