3 NBA Friday Best Bets Include 2 Sides, 1 Total
I'm rallying in the NBA to close out the work week. After my NBA betting balance fell to as low as -6 units (u)-ish earlier this week, I have a chance to get above zero Friday. In order for that to happen I'll need to be on the "right side" of my Mavericks-Hawks, Pacers-Suns, and Thunder-Pelicans ...
NBA Friday Best Bets
Dallas Mavericks (-120) at Atlanta Hawks, 7 p.m. ET
I'm buying low on the Mavericks who've lost four of their last five games including three consecutive. However, those losses are against the New Orleans Pelicans, on the road at the LA Lakers, the Phoenix Suns, and Boston Celtics.
Atlanta on the other hand is 24th in net rating, which ranks worse than the aforementioned teams, and 28th over the past two weeks, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). The Hawks have the worst spread differential on the season and over the past two weeks.
Moreover, the Mavs have been profitable as a short favorite. Since 2021, they are 27-12 straight up (SU) and 25-14 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite of -3 or less. Dallas is 4-1 SU and ATS in those spots including 3-0 SU and ATS on the road.
Dallas Mavericks PG Luka Doncic shoots a fadeaway over Atlanta Hawks SG Dejounte Murray at American Airlines Center in Texas. (Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports)
I like the Mavericks even more considering sportsbooks project this to be a close game. Dallas has a +15.6 net rating in the clutch (ranked 8th) and Atlanta is -16.0 (ranked 26th). "Clutch" is when there's a 5-point margin in the last five minutes of the game.
Hawks PG Trae Young's poor decision making and shot selection is the major reason the Hawks suck in the clutch. They are 23rd in assist-to-turnover ratio in those moments and 28th in effective field goal shooting.
Trae is "questionable" for Friday after missing the past two games with a concussion. I've said this before but Young is "addition by subtraction". Or, in this case, "subtraction by addition". Per CTG, Trae has a -2.2 non-garbage time on/off rating. Meaning, Atlanta plays better with Young on the bench.
My prediction: Mavericks 125, Hawks 115
UNDER 244 in Phoenix Suns at Indiana Pacers, 7 p.m. ET
Indy will be without All-Star PG Tyrese Haliburton Friday. Haliburton was voted as a starter on the Eastern Conference All-Star team and leads the NBA in assists. Without Haliburton on the floor, the Pacers score 10.4 fewer points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, per CTG.
He is Indiana’s only facilitator and it’s going to be tough for the Pacers to create good looks without Haliburton. Plus, it’ll be harder for them to control the tempo. Indiana plays at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA whereas Phoenix is 24th in pace.
A slower pace equals fewer possessions and fewer points. Haliburton missed the Suns-Pacers meeting in Phoenix this past Sunday. The Suns beat the Pacers 117-110 and that game had a 98.6 pace. The NBA average is 99.2 and Indy has a 102.6 pace.
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Furthermore, the Pacers just traded for PF Pascal Siakam who’s immediately improved their defense. Indy is allowing 7.0 fewer points per 100 possessions when Siakam is on the floor. Ultimately, no one can stop Suns All-Star Kevin Durant.
But, Siakam is about as good as it gets. Phoenix attempts a ton of mid-range jumpers. Siakam’s and Pacers C Myles Turner’s length will make it tough for KD and Suns All-Stars Devin Booker and Bradley Beal to operate in the mid-range.
Indiana Pacers SG Andrew Nembhard defends Phoenix Suns SG Devin Booker at Footprint Center in Arizona. (Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports)
The only thing Indiana does right defensively is contest 3-pointers. The Pacers have the best wide-open 3-point attempt rate in the NBA. “Wide-open” is when the 3-point shooter has at least six feet of distance from the nearest defender.
Indy is on the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the Philadelphia 76ers 134-122 Thursday and Phoenix had a day’s rest. The Pacers are 1-6 Over/Under (O/U) in their past seven games with a rest disadvantage including five consecutive Unders. They have a -10.8 O/U margin in those contests.
Finally, both teams are 3-7 O/U in their last 10 games. This includes Phoenix’s 117-110 home win vs. Indiana Jan. 21st, which had a 245-point total.
My prediction: Suns 122, Pacers 113
Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans (-110), 8 p.m. ET
New Orleans beat Oklahoma City 110-106 in their 1st meeting this season Nov. 1st. The Pelicans won despite playing without forwards Brandon Ingram, Naji Marshall, and Trey Murphy III. Ingram is their 2nd-leading scorer, averaging 21.4 points per game (PPG).
Murphy and Marshall have 1st- and 2nd-best non-garbage time on/off net rating on the Pelicans, per CTG. They aren’t starters but are key contributors. Both teams have strong benches — New Orleans’ bench is 2nd in net rating and Oklahoma City's is 3rd — but the Pelicans won without were down a couple of guys.
New Orleans Pelicans PF Zion Williamson drives down the court on Thunder SG Aaron Wiggins in an NBA game at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. (Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, NOLA has two strength-on-weakness edges over OKC on the boards and drawing fouls. The Pelicans are 6th in free-throw attempt rate (FTr) and the Thunder are 27th in defensive FTr. Zion Williamson's aggressiveness usually gets him to the charity stripe and Ingram is good at drawing fouls as well.
Finally, New Orleans is much bigger and will crush Oklahoma City on the glass. The Pelicans are 10th in offensive rebounding rate. While the Thunder are 29th in defensive rebounding rate and 2nd-chance PPG allowed.