3 NBA Bets To Nibble On Friday Ahead Of NFL's Playoff Feast
A possible 2024 NBA Finals preview headlines Friday's card when the Boston Celtics host the reigning champion Denver Nuggets. I know OutKick readers don't love the NBA like me. Yet, Nuggets-Celtics is one of the few NBA regular-season games worth watching.
More importantly, for daily sports bettors like myself, the NBA's Friday card is a good appetizer for this weekend. There's a title fight in UFC 297 Saturday along with two NFL divisional round games followed by two more Sunday. With that in mind, I'm trying to build my bankroll with three ...
Best Bets In The NBA Friday
Denver Nuggets at Boston Celtics (-7), 7:30 p.m. ET
The Celtics are at full strength and the Nuggets are in “championship mode.” Meaning, Denver doesn’t really care about these regular season games. Even if the Nuggets are “up” for this game, Boston is the hardest place to play in the NBA.
Boston is 20-0 straight up (SU) and 13-7 against the spread (ATS) at home this season. They are 8-0 SU at home vs. teams with a winning record. Seven of those wins are by at least six points. The Celtics are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS against Denver since 2021. Boston is out-performing the Nuggets in all “four factors” in those games.
Celtics wing Jayson Tatum goes to the hoop on Denver Nuggets point guard Jamal Murray at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
If these teams met in the NBA Finals, the Celtics would be -4.5 or -5 home favorites. But, to-date, Boston is the much better team. DunksAndThrees.com accounts for strength of schedule. The Celtics have a +9.7 adjusted net rating and the Nuggets are +5.2. After a 3-point boost for home-court, Boston should be -7.5 vs. Denver Friday.
The Celtics have a way better bench and the defensive backcourt to neutralize Nuggets PG Jamal Murray. Boston's bench has the best net rating in the NBA and Denver's bench is 25th in net rating. Celtics guards Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are two of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA. If Murray and Nuggets SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope don't step up, Denver will lose to good teams.
My prediction: Celtics 125, Nuggets 114
Phoenix Suns (+2) at New Orleans Pelicans, 8 p.m. ET
There has been reverse line movement headed in NOLA's direction off the opener. As of 11:30 a.m. ET Friday morning, Pregame.com says more than 80 percent of the action is on the Pelicans. However, I bet Phoenix at +2.5 earlier in the morning and am willing to BET SUNS +2 (down to a pick 'em).
Phoenix’s Big 3 — Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and SG Bradley Beal —are healthy and the Suns are ballin’. When those three guys are the floor, Phoenix has the best 5-man lineup in the NBA, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Suns All-Stars Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Kevin Durant after scoring against the Charlotte Hornets at Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
New Orleans SF Herbert Jones is an elite defensive wing. But, outside of Jones, the Pelicans don’t have enough guys to defend KD, Booker, and Beal. Furthermore, if this game is close late, I trust the Suns to get more quality looks.
The Pelicans are 27th in net rating (-20.4) in the "clutch" and have the worst offensive turnover rate during those moments. "Clutch" is when there's a 5-point margin in the final five minutes of regulation. NOLA's absence of a true point guard is the big reason for the high turnover rate.
Finally, Durant and Booker on the other hand are two of the best 10 iso-scorers in the NBA. Plus, over the last two weeks, the Suns are fifth in non-garbage time net rating and second in offensive efficiency, per CTG.
My prediction: Suns 123, Pelicans 118
OVER 221.5 in Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat, 8 p.m. ET
This number is just a little too low. Granted, Hawks-Heat has gone Under the total in four straight meetings including both this season. Atlanta and Miami are 0-4 Over/Under (O/U) in their previous four games prior to Friday.
The first Hawks-Heat meeting this season had a 227.5 total Nov. 11th (Miami won 117-109). Then the second had a 238.5 total Dec. 22nd. (Miami won again, 122-113). But, Heat SF Jimmy Butler didn’t play in either game and SG Tyler Herro missed the first.
Herro leads Miami with 22.4 points per game (PPG) and Butler is third at 21.2 PPG. When Butler is on the floor, the Heat’s offensive rating is +7.1 better, according to CTG. Herro is one of the best shooters in the NBA and plays great pick-and-roll offense.
Heat forward Jimmy Butler shoots a free-throw against the Atlanta Hawks in an NBA game at Kaseya Center in Miami. (Bryan Cereijo/Getty Images)
Jimmy Butler rounds out their offense. Miami gets to the foul line at a much higher rate when Butler is on the floor. Butler himself leads the NBA in percentage of points scored at the free-throw line. Herro and Butler suiting up for this game should make this total at least 230.
Also, Miami plays a lot of half-court offense and Atlanta’s defense is awful in the half-court. The Heat have a ton of 3-point shooters and role players shoot better at home. Miami’s 3-point rate goes from 35.9 percent on the road to 40.3 percent in home games. The ladder would lead the NBA.
Hawks PG Trae Young is out of Friday’s game with an illness. On paper, you’d think that hurts Atlanta’s offense. However, Trae is “addition by subtraction” and the Hawks score when he is out of the game.
Young is a ball-stopper and makes Atlanta easier to defend. Less Trae equals more Hawks shooting guard Bogdan Bogdanovic and small forward Saddiq Bey who are good offensive players and weak defensively.