4 'Locks' For 2024 NCAA Tournament 1st-Round Action Thursday

Alright, "locks" is a bit of a stretch. As I warned everyone when previewing the regions of the 2024 NCAA Tournament, I'm dead money in these bracket pools. I'm fully expecting my bracket to be busted by the end of the first weekend in the Big Dance. Regardless, I won't sit on the sidelines for the biggest gambling event of the year. 

LISTEN to the OutKick Bets Podcast: 2024 NCAA Tournament Preview Ft. Trey Wallace & Dan Z

Especially because I put myself in a hole during the conference tournaments. Coming into the NCAA Tournament, my March Madness betting record is 3-6 and I'm -3.8 units (u). I'm rolling up my sleeves and getting to work. 

Best Bets for the 2024 NCAA Tournament: Thursday, March 21st 

The odds used are the best available prices at the time of writing. 

West Region: 9-seed Michigan State (-114) vs. 8-seed Mississippi State, 12:15 p.m. ET on CBS

Look, I hate the Big Ten Conference. It’s the most overrated thing in sports. However, because of Tom Izzo, Michigan State basketball is the most legit program in the Big Ten. Furthermore, both teams allow their opponents to chuck threes, but the Spartans hit 3-pointers at a higher clip. 

The average 3-point rate in college basketball is 33.8%. Michigan State hits 35.9% of its threes (ranked 64th nationally out of 362 D-1 schools) and Mississippi State is 32.5% from behind the arc (247th). The Spartans are 11th in Ken Pom’s net efficiency rankings and the Bulldogs are 31st. 

Michigan State Spartans SG Tyson Walker works around Purdue Boilermakers PG Braden Smith at Target Center in Minneapolis. (Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports)

Mississippi State upset the Tennessee Volunteers in the SEC tourney and covered in a 73-66 loss to the Auburn Tigers in the conference semifinals. Michigan State lost four of its final six games in the regular season and the Big Ten tourney. I.e. there is some recency bias in the market with these two teams. 

Finally, and you'll read this a lot from me, the most important thing in tournament basketball is the "battle for possessions". According to Ken Pom, Mississippi State is 290th in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) and Michigan State is 71st in defensive TOV%. 

Bet 1.14u on Michigan State's moneyline (-114) at FanDuel

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Midwest Region: 11-seed Oregon (+100) vs. 6-seed South Carolina, 4 p.m. ET on TNT

Ducks head coach Dana Altman is a wizard in the NCAA Tournament. Oregon has won its first-round game in all seven NCAA tourney appearances under Altman. Over that span, the Ducks have made one Final Four, one Elite Eight, and three Sweet 16s. On top of that, 11-seeds are 15-13 vs. 6-seeds in the Big Dance since 2016. 

South Carolina runs most of its offense through senior C B.J. Mack, but Oregon senior C N'Faly Dante is the better big. Dante leads the Ducks in scoring (16.2 points per game), rebounding (8.8 boards per game), and defensive rating. Oregon won three NCAA Tournament games last year without N'Faly. 

He led the conference with a 28.6 Player Efficiency Rating (PER) last season and is having a better season in 2024. Dante's 30.3 PER this season would lead the Pac-12, but he missed the first 14 games this season and doesn't qualify. I consider these teams fairly equal but N'Faly is the best player on the floor and Altman is a G in tourney time. 

Bet 1u on Oregon's moneyline (+100) at FanDuel

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West Region: 10-seed Nevada vs. 7-seed Dayton (+1.5), 4:30 p.m. ET on TBS 

I'm going with the Flyers here because they beat my alma mater, St. John's University, earlier this season and I like how Dayton plays. Plus, I'm salty about the Mountain West getting six teams into the tournament when the Big East got only three. Especially because the Mountain West perennially chokes in the Big Dance. 

Furthermore, the Flyers are more "battle-tested". The Wolf Pack's non-conference strength of schedule ranked 230th in the country and Dayton's was 39th. Nevada's most impressive non-conference is TCU, which has a lower net efficiency than St. John's, per Ken Pom. The Wolf Pack got crushed by Drake, a team we'll discuss again below. 

Dayton Flyers PF DaRon Holmes II blocks Cincinnati Bearcats guard Day Day Thomas at Heritage Bank Center in Ohio. (Albert Cesare/The Enquirer/USA TODAY NETWORK)

The Flyers have four 3-point shooters in their starting 5 and the best player on the floor in Atlantic 10 Player of the Year, DaRon Holmes. As a team, Dayton knocks down 40.2% of its threes, which ranks third nationally. Nevada is 299th in defensive 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) and Dayton is 29th in offensive 3PAr. If the Wolf Pack allows the Flyers to chuck threes, Dayton could roll Nevada Thursday. 

Lastly, I'm counting on the Flyers winning the free-throw battle. Nevada is third in offensive FT/FGA but 226th defensively, per Ken Pom. However, Dayton is third in defensive FT/FGA and 70th offensively. 

Bet 1.1u on Dayton +1.5 (-110) on FanDuel

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East Region: 10-seed Drake (-118) vs. 7-seed Washington State, 10:05 p.m. ET on truTV

The redemption tour for Drake wing Tucker DeVries begins with Thursday's NCAA Tournament finale. Drake was a popular pick last year as a 12-seed to upset Miami in the first round. The Bulldogs lost to The U 63-56 mostly because DeVries went 1-for-13 from the field (1-for-11 from deep). DeVries won Player of the Year for the Missouri Valley Conference and is the best player on the floor in this game. 

Drake Bulldogs SF Tucker DeVries flashes a three after making a 3-pointer vs. the Indiana State Sycamores during the Missouri Valley Conference Championship at Enterprise Center. (Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports)

Drake does three things well that make me want to bet on it. The Bulldogs lead the country in defensive rebounding rate. They are 14th nationally in offensive TOV% and 19th in true shooting, which accounts for 2-, 3-, and free-throw shooting rates. For what it's worth, I got Drake making the Elite Eight in my bracket. So, if they advance, expect to see me bet on the Bulldogs again this weekend. 

Bet 1.18u on Drake's moneyline (-118) on FanDuel 

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