3 Hot-Garbage NBA Bets From An Ice-Cold Basketball Bettor
I followed up a 2-0 Saturday with an 0-3 Sunday, which put me further in the hole betting the NBA this season. One of my losses (Indiana Pacers +4.5) was just bad "load management" or injury luck when Indy PG Tyrese Haliburton was ruled out prior to tip-off.
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However, the other two losses were user error on my part. Regardless, I cannot do worse than Sunday with my three ...
Best Bets for NBA Monday
Cleveland Cavaliers (-2) at Orlando Magic, 7 p.m. ET
Low-key, the Cavaliers are playing some of the best basketball in the NBA currently. They've won seven consecutive games and are 6-1 against the spread (ATS) over that span.
Also, Cleveland is 3rd in defensive rating and Orlando is 24th in offensive rating. Against bottom-10 offenses, the Cavs are 13-2 straight up (SU) with a +11.5 non-garbage time net rating and a +6.5 ATS differential, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Cleveland Cavaliers SG Donovan Mitchell shoots it over Magic SG Anthony Black during an NBA Game at Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. (Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, the Cavaliers have a better shot quality than the Magic on both ends of the floor, per CTG. Over the last six games, Cleveland is averaging 5.5 more wide-open 3-point attempts per game than Orlando. "Wide-open" is when there's at least six feet of distance from the 3-point shooter and the nearest defender.
The Magic are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back (B2B). They boat-raced the Miami Heat 105-87 Sunday, a game I was on the wrong side of. But, Orlando is 2-6 SU on the 2nd of a B2B with a -9.5 scoring margin. Finally, the Cavs are 6-2 SU and ATS with a rest edge over their opponent and they have a +5.1 ATS margin in those games.
My prediction: Cavaliers 115, Magic 106
Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks (+2.5), 8:30 p.m. ET
Celtics-Mavericks will be a 3-point shooting contest. Boston leads the NBA in 3-point attempt rate and Dallas is right behind them in 2nd. With that in mind, I'll side with the home team because Boston's 3-point shooting dips on the road and vice versa for Dallas.
The Celtics go from 40.5% 3-point shooting in their home gym to 35.5% on the road. While the Mavs' 3-point shooting increases from 34.7% in away games to 38.9% at home. The Mavericks have won three straight games outright as a home 'dog.
Boston Celtics SF Jayson Tatum defends Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. (Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports)
Plus, Boston guards Jrue Holiday's and Derrick White's play declines on the road. For instance, Holiday's field goal shooting dips from 47.8% in Boston to 43.4% in away games. White's offensive rating decreases from 131 at home to 121 on the road.
Finally, Dallas has a massive rest edge over Boston. The Mavs are playing on four days of rest. Whereas the Celtics are in the 2nd of a B2B after beating the Rockets 116-107 in Houston Sunday.
My prediction: Mavericks 122, Celtics 118
Atlanta Hawks (+8) at Sacramento Kings, 10 p.m. ET
Hawks PG Trae Young will miss Monday's with a concussion and this is "addition by subtraction" for them. Per CTG, Young has a -4.8 on/off non-garbage time net rating. Meaning, Atlanta scores 4.4 more points per 100 possessions when Trae is off the floor.
The Kings beat the Hawks 117-110 Dec. 29th in Atlanta. The Hawks held a 23-point lead in that game despite Trae having a -11 net rating. Young had the worst net rating among Atlanta's five starters.
Atlanta Hawks SG Dejounte Murray shoots a floater over Kings SF Harrison Barnes at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Moreover, Hawks SG Bogdan Bogdanovic is replacing Young in Atlanta's starting 5. Bogdanovic is a much better fit alongside Hawks combo guard Dejounte Murray whose a better player than Trae. Per CTG, Bogdanovic has a +11.8 non-garbage time on/off net rating.
Also, Sacramento's record is misleading. According to CTG, the Kings have a +3.1 win differential, which means they should have three fewer wins based on net efficiency. In fact, Sactown's net rating is just 17th in the NBA.