3 Friday Bets From The Coldest NBA Handicapper In The World
For those who care (I don't), the NBA in-season tournament begins Friday. That doesn't have anything to do with my analysis below, I just thought it was worth mentioning.
I'm not going to sugarcoat it: My NBA betting has been atrocious lately. I've lost five straight bets and my record has fallen to 12-12 and my bankroll is -2.48 units (u). Hopefully, it's a ...
'Get-Right' Friday in NBA Betting
OVER 224.5 in Knicks-Bucks, 7:30 p.m. ET
Since last season, the Bucks are 29-17 Over/Under (O/U) with a +5.0 O/U margin as home favorites. They are 3-1 O/U so far this season. Partially due to Milwaukee’s defense regressing under 1st-year head coach Adrian Griffin.
The tweet above is from the most successful known NBA gambler ever. Voulgaris was so good at betting the NBA that the Dallas Mavericks hired him as a basketball consultant. He correctly predicted the Bucks would struggle defensively without former coach Mike Budenholzer.
Currently, the Bucks rank 29th in non-garbage time defensive rating, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). Trading for Damian Lillard this offseason raises Milwaukee’s offensive ceiling but he is a bad defensive player. Lillard is replacing Jrue Holiday, one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA.
Also, we are fading recency bias with New York's offense. The Knicks are 1-4 O/U in their 1st five games this season. But, they went Under the total in both games of a home-and-away back-to-back (B2B) with the Cavs, which is a budding rivalry.
Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo talking vs. the Miami Heat at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
Furthermore, Cleveland had the best defense in the league last season. New York’s other two Unders were against the Boston Celtics in its 1st game of the season and the New Orleans Pelicans. However, the Celtics have an elite defense and the Knicks were in the 2nd of a B2B when playing the Pelicans.
Lastly, most casual NBA fans think of the Knicks as a defensive team because of head coach Tom Thibodeau. That said, last season, New York had the 2nd-best offensive rating in non-garbage time and ranked 19th in defensive rating, per CTG.
My prediction: Bucks 117, Knicks 113
LISTEN: OutKick Bets NBA Show for Nov. 3rd featuring David Troy
Brooklyn Nets (+3.5) at Chicago Bulls, 8 p.m. ET
Chicago beat Brooklyn 131-87 in their final meeting last season. That kind of whooping makes this a revenge game for the Nets. This was after Brooklyn traded Kevin Durant so both teams had essentially the same rosters that’ll play Friday.
Also, Brooklyn has a strength-on-weakness edge over Chicago in getting to the charity stripe. The Nets are 9th in offensive free-throw attempt rate (FTr) and the Bulls are 23rd in defensive FTr, according to CTG.
Brooklyn Nets SF Mikal Bridges shoots a floater against the Hornets at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina. (David Jensen/Getty Images)
Chicago takes a lot of inefficient mid-range jumpers. Per CTG, the Bulls rank 20th in shot selection, and the Nets are 12th and attempt the 3rd-highest rate of corner 3-pointers, which is the most efficient shot in basketball.
The Nets have several long wings who are good defenders such as forwards Mikal Bridges, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Royce O’Neale. The bottom line is it'll be tough for Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan to hit their difficult shots over Brooklyn's athletic defenders.
My prediction: Nets 112, Bulls 110
Dallas Mavericks (+6) at Denver Nuggets, 10 p.m. ET
Mavs All-Star Luka Doncic is balling out right now. Luka leads the NBA in points per game (33.8) and PER. Doncic is shooting a career-high 42% from behind the arc on roughly 11 attempts per game.
Luka's teammates are shooting well from 3-point land as well. Four Mavericks are shooting at least 40% from deep. Coincidently, Kyrie Irving is the worst 3-point shooting Mav but that'll definitely improve.
Mavericks SF Luka Doncic drives to the basket against Denver Nuggets big Nikola Jokic at American Airlines Center in Dallas. (Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
Plus, the Mavericks are one of the few teams that don't get crushed in Denver. Dallas is 4-4 outright and 5-3 vs. the spread in Denver since 2018-19 (Luka's rookie season).
Finally, we have some sketchy line movement in Mavericks-Nuggets. According to Pregame.com, nearly 70% of the bets are on Denver but Dallas has gone from a +6.5 'dog to +6 at PointsBet.