Initially, I wasn't going to bet on any college basketball games Thursday. But, while watching my St. John's Red Storm beat down the Butler Bulldogs, I got FOMO and decided to make a few wagers. I mean, I have to get some reps because it's March, and I'm making a ton of bets this month. With that in mind, here are my three best bets for Thursday's slate. Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Best Bets: March 13 Villanova (+6.5) vs. UConn at ‘The Garden’, 9:30 p.m. ET The vibe I get entering March Madness is that people think the Huskies are a "dark horse" to do some damage in the NCAA Tournament and perhaps beat #6 St. John's in the Big East tourney. It's funny to act like the reigning back-to-back national champion with the supposed "best coach in the f*cking sport" is a "sleeper" pick. Anyway, I like this matchup for Villanova and this UConn team is significantly worse than its title teams, which isn't a criticism, it's just true. The Huskies are 264th out of 364 DI schools in defensive 3-point percentage and 326th in defensive FT/FGA rate, per Ken Pom. The Wildcats are second in 3-point make rate and fifth in free-throw percentage. Villanova split the regular-season series with Connecticut, but ‘Nova covered both meetings. Furthermore, the Wildcats have covered eight of their last 10 games vs. the Huskies with the "best coach in the f*cking sport." UConn is 178th in experience and Villanova is 17th, according to Ken Pom. So, these Wildcats are used to playing these Huskies and playing them tough. _____________________________ Oklahoma (+6.5) vs. Kentucky in Nashville, 9:30 p.m. ET Kentucky's defense isn't aggressive enough to beat Oklahoma by margin (cover). According to Ken Pom, the Wildcats are 338th in defensive turnover rate and 320th in defensive 3-point-attempt allowed. So, Oklahoma can get good looks from behind the arc, and 3-pointers are the most important thing in basketball nowadays. The Sooners are 38th in 3-point shooting and hit 40.0% of their 3-pointers (10-for-25) in an 83-82 home loss to the Wildcats February 26. Oklahoma can put several lineups where all five guys on the floor can shoot 3-pointers. OU is 18th in defensive 3-point percentage and UK is 22nd in 3-point rate and shot 7-for-23 vs. the Sooners last month. Also, Kentucky had a bye in the first round of the SEC tourney, whereas Oklahoma played Wednesday and got used to the sightlines of Bridgestone Arena. Lastly, Oklahoma has more momentum, is more consistent, and is better away from home, per college basketball analyst Erik Haslam. _____________________________ Boise State vs. San Diego State (+2.5) in Las Vegas, 5:30 p.m. ET People will talk themselves into betting on the Broncos under the guise of "it's tough to beat a team three times in one season" because the Aztecs are 2-0 straight up and against the spread vs. Boise State in the regular season. However, that's an overused and overrated narrative and isn't backed by much data. What if this is just a bad matchup for the Broncos? San Diego State has a better shot profile. Per college basketball analyst "Bart Torvik" (which probably isn't his real name), the Aztecs have better differentials in dunks taken vs. allowed and "close 2-pointers" taken vs. allowed. Plus, they are bigger: SDSU has two 6-foot-10 bigs in its starting 5, while Boise State's tallest player is 6-foot-8. The Aztecs’ size keeps teams from getting into the paint. Thus, they are 350th in defensive 3-point-attempt percentage, according to college hoops guru Ken Pom. The Broncos need to get into the paint because they are 297th in 3-point rate. They went 23.3% and 16.7% from behind the arc in their two regular-season games vs. San Diego State. Ultimately, SDSU has a better resume, is one of the best defensive teams in the country, and has been a top-25 program since hiring head coach Brian Dutcher in 2019. Whereas Boise State isn't "one of the best" at anything. If the Broncos beat the Aztecs, and me, because "they are due," so be it. _____________________________ Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my college basketball 2025 betting record via X all season.