3 Can't Miss (Probably) NBA Player Props For Thursday
I'm all jacked up while watching the first round of The Masters and want to gamble on other sports Thursday. But, there are only five games in the NBA and I don't like a side or total in any of them. So, I'm looking at a few player props even though I usually suck at betting them until the NBA postseason. That said, I'm +2.17 units (u) on player props this season, which is far better than my sides and total wagers.
NBA Player Props for Thursday
The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
Chicago Bulls SF DeMar DeRozan UNDER 27.5 Points vs. Detroit Pistons
DeRozan’s Under is -118 at Pinnacle Sportsbook, a market-making shop that legal U.S. sportsbooks copy, while DraftKings and Caesars make his Under more expensive.
Furthermore, DeMar scored 28+ points in just 22 of his 77 games this season and once in his three games vs. the Pistons. Post-All-Star break, DeRozan has gone Over 27.5 points in only 11 of his 24 games.
Bulls wing DeMar DeRozan looks to pass the ball vs. the Detroit Pistons at United Center in Chicago. (Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports)
He has the lowest 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) on the Bulls. With that in mind, DeMar relies on getting to the charity stripe and inefficient mid-range jumpers. It's hard to score 28 points without chucking a bunch of threes.
Bet 0.75u on Bulls SF DeMar DeRozan UNDER 27.5 points (-110) at DraftKings
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New York Knicks C Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 19.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists (PRA) vs. Boston Celtics
Hartenstein is more of a complete player than most casual NBA fans recognize. He has a nice little floater. He is a great rebounder on both ends of the floor and an elite passing big man.
Since March 1st, the Celtics are 21st in defensive rebounding rate, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). Plus, the Celtics spend most of their defensive effort on preventing threes, so Hartenstein can get his "float game" on.
New York Knicks C Isaiah Hartenstein to the hoop on Atlanta Hawks SG Bogdan Bogdanovic at Madison Square Garden. (Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, he replaced Knicks C Mitchell Robinson in the starting 5 while Robinson was out with an injury. In his 47 games as a starter, Hartenstein averages 8.6 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 3.1 assists. He’s gone Over 19.5 PRA in 11 of his last 14 games.
Finally, this is the 3rd Knicks-Celtics meeting this season and Hartenstein’s 1st start vs. Boston. He played 15 minutes in the 1st Knicks-Celtics contest and 29 minutes in the 2nd. In the latter, Hartenstein scored 5 points, grabbed 14 boards, and dished 4 assists.
Bet 0.75u on Knicks C Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 19.5 PRA (-115) at BetMGM
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Sacramento Kings SF Keegan Murray OVER 16.5 Points vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Murray is a young player and in his 2nd NBA season, so it makes sense that he performs better at home. He scores 4.5 more points per game at home (17.5-13.0) and his offensive rating goes from 108 on the road to 121 in Sacramento.
Keegan is shooting 9.4 threes per game in five games this month. Murray’s increase in aggressiveness most likely coincides with the injuries to Kings shooting guards Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter.
Sacramento Kings SF Keegan Murray shoots a three over Oklahoma City Thunder PF Jalen Williams at Paycom Center. (Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports)
He’s scored at least 18 points in three of those five games and 17+ in seven of his 10 games dating back to March. Finally, the Pelicans have the highest defensive 3PAr in the NBA since March 1st, according to CTG.
Bet 0.75u on Kings SF Keegan Murray OVER 16.5 Points (-120) at FanDuel
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.