2025 Waste Management Phoenix Open Six Winning Bets To Sweat Super Bowl Sunday
Aka "The People's Open," everything about the Waste Management Phoenix Open kicks a**. The course (TPC Scottsdale), the frat party-like debauchery, perennial thrilling finishes, and a final round that serves as a betting appetizer for Super Bowl Sunday. The Phoenix Open is the most-attended event on the PGA TOUR annually.
Instead of repeating stuff from smarter people, look at the X posts embedded below. There is information on tee times for the first two rounds, Phoenix Open winners with their pre-tournament odds, the betting favorites for this year, and TPC Scottsdale stats. Maybe you can use this data to make better Phoenix Open bets.
I prevented a sweep at last week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am by hitting a top-20 bet on Tom Hoge. Still, none of my picks to win were in the mix on the weekend and I lost -1.76 units (u), which brings my PGA TOUR 2025 bankroll to -13.98u. I'm ditching finishing position bets this week to save and betting six guys to win outright.
2025 Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Card
Horses for the Course
The odds chosen are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks at the time of writing, according to OddsChecker.com.
Sahith Theegala (+4500)
Theegala should've won this tournament as a rookie in 2022. He had the 36-hole lead and was tied for the lead at the 17th hole in the final round but missed the playoff, which Scottie Scheffler won to claim his first PGA TOUR victory, and finished T3 thanks to an unlucky tee shot going into the water. Otherwise, Theegala was T39 in 2023 and fifth last year.
Granted, his first four starts this season are nothing to be excited about: T36 at The Sentry, T37 at the Sony Open, T52 at the Farmers Insurance Open, and T53 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Yet, Theegala randomly plays well after slumps. He was third at the 2024 TOUR Championship following a T46 and 48th in the first two rounds of the FedExCup Playoffs.
Sahith Theegala chips onto the 17th green in the second round of the 2024 Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. (Photo Credit: Rob Schumacher-Imagn Images)
However, Theegala contending in Phoenix wouldn't be a surprise considering his strong course history at TPC Scottsdale. Plus, two of his best finishes last season were at other TPC courses, such as a T9 in THE PLAYERS Championship at Sawgrass and a T6 in the 3M Open at Twin Cities.
Ultimately, I have a hunch Theegala is in the mix Sunday. His +4000 odds are the lowest I'm willing to bet because the guys with lower odds don't have a much better chance to beat Scheffler, given Theegala's versatility throughout the bag and his previous success at TPC Scottsdale.
BET 0.44u on Sahith Theegala (+4500) to profit 20u
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Matthew Fitzpatrick (+6000)
The Englishman sucked last season and is 53rd in the Official World Golf Rankings. His best finish last year was fifth at THE PLAYERS on another stadium-style course with "risk/reward" holes and many birdie chances. Fitzpatrick also has three top-10s in six FedEx St. Jude Championships at TPC Southwind.
Moreover, Fitzpatrick was T15 at the 2024 Phoenix Open, T29 two years ago, and T10 in 2022. He is fourth in this field for total strokes gained (SG) per round in the last five Phoenix opens while picking up strokes with his driver, irons, chipping, and putting. The 2022 U.S. Open winner is strong throughout the bag and has worse odds than several players he is better than.
BET 0.33u on Matthew Fitzpatrick (+6000) to profit 20u
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Kurt Kitayama (+6000)
Bay Hill Club & Lodge, which hosts the Arnold Palmer Invitational, is fifth in "similarity score" to TPC Scottsdale on DataGolf.com's "course fit tool." Kitayama's only win on the PGA TOUR is the 2023 Arnold Palmer. Also, most of the second shots at TPC Scottsdale are from 150-175 yards. Kitayama was second on TOUR in SG from that distance last season.
As a UNLV graduate, Kityama should be used to "desert golf", and he is third in my 30-round model at BetTheNumber.com. Over that span, Kitayama is sixth in this field for SG: Approach (APP), the most predictive stat in golf, and seventh in Par 5 scoring, which requires using four different clubs.
BET 0.33u on Kurt Kitayama (+6000) to profit 20u
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Cameron Young (+8000)
We finally have a "good number" for a golfer who was too expensive to bet last season. Young was half the price (+4000) at the 2024 Phoenix Open even though he was T33 at The Sentry and 70th in the AT&T in his two PGA TOUR starts prior. This year, Young was T8 at The Sentry, missed the cut at The American Express, and 72nd at the AT&T.
After nearly winning several times in his three seasons on the PGA TOUR, the golf gambling community has been waiting for Young's first win while betting him at way worse odds in tougher fields. Young had five runner-ups and seven top-10s in his rookie season on TOUR (2021-22), five top-10s and one runner-up two years ago, and six top-10s and a runner-up last season.
Everyone is mad at Young for costing them money, but he still has a major-winning upside and is one of the most powerful ball-strikers in the world and TPC Scottsdale is a "bomber's paradise." Scheffler (2022-23), Hideki Matsuyama (2016-17), and Brooks Koepka (2015 and 2021) have won two Phoenix Opens, and they are fantastic ball-strikers.
Also, Scheffler lost a ton of tournaments and cost bettors money in his two seasons on the PGA TOUR before he finally broke through with his first career win at the 2022 Phoenix Open. Obviously, Young doesn't have Scheffler's ceiling. However, he'll win eventually on TOUR and wins usually come in bunches.
Lastly, TPC Scottsdale is one of the most predictive courses on TOUR, and Young was T8 here in 2024 while gaining strokes with his driver, irons, and putter. Young lost strokes around-the-green (ARG) in the Phoenix Open last season. But, he's gained strokes ARG in 11 straight starts, including the 152nd Open Championship, and the 2024 U.S. Open.
BET 0.25u on Cameron Young (+8000) to profit 20u
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Andrew Novak (+8000)
Novak was in the final group in Round 4 of the Farmers a couple of weeks ago and finished third. The Farmers is at Torrey Pines, one of the toughest courses on TOUR. If Novak can play well at Torrey Pines, he can contend at TPC Scottsdale. Last week, Novak was T13 at Pebble Beach, a "signature event" with the toughest field to date.
He was T8 in his Phoenix Open debut last season, which started a three-start streak of top-10 finishes with the Mexico Open (T8) and Cognizant Classic (T9) being the other two events. Novak is a "gut-feel play". His short-game has been on-point this season, gaining strokes on the greens in his last two starts, and he ranks third in APP from 150-175.
BET 0.25u on Andrew Novak (+8000) to profit 20u
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Jordan Spieth (+9000)
Spieth is making his second start following offseason wrist surgery. He was T69 last week at Pebble Beach, a place he plays well and won the 2017 AT&T. The 2015 Masters champion had some rust but showed signs of old Spieth Sunday. According to DataGolf.com, Spieth was eighth in SG: APP in the final round of the AT&T and gained strokes putting.
Furthermore, TPC Scottsdale is another place Spieth plays well, and he will get a ton of fan support. He has five T9 finishes or better in his last eight Phoenix Opens, including a T6 in the past two seasons and a T4 in 2021. Jordan is fifth in this field for total SG per round at TPC Scottsdale over the last five years.
Like all my other bets on this card, Spieth is a "numbers play". Whenever he finishes in the top 10, Jordan will be priced at +3000 or lower. Last season, Spieth was +1800 to win the Phoenix Open. He's been around for a while, but Jordan is only 31 years old. My point is I'd rather be late than early on Spieth and I saw enough from him last week to bet him at these odds.
BET 0.22u on Jordan Spieth (+9000) to profit 20u
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Waste Management Phoenix Open 2025 One-And-Done Pick: Andrew Novak
Jason Day's T13 at last week's AT&T Pebble Beach brought me and my girlfriend's split-entry in the "Race for the 2025 Mayo Cup" to 1,901st place out of 4,500 entries. Honestly, I'm not crazy about using Novak here instead of golfers with shorter odds. But, Novak will have lower ownership and the Phoenix Open isn't a "signature event", so a poor finish doesn't end our season.
Previous Picks
- Sony Open: Austin Eckroat ($0)
- The American Express: Sam Burns ($57,640)
- Farmers Insurance Open: Rico Hoey ($0)
- AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Jason Day ($368,500)
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X all season.