Sportsbooks Were More Accurate About The 2025 NFL Draft 1st Round Than Football Analysts
Don't listen to the insiders next year. Instead, pay attention to the betting odds because the sportsbooks did a better job predicting the 2025 NFL Draft's top-10 picks than people who do mock drafts professionally. The favorites to be taken in the first seven picks Thursday all cashed.
Granted, how they got there was a little wonky. For instance, you couldn't specifically bet that the Jacksonville Jaguars would trade their fifth pick and future draft capital to the Cleveland Browns for the second pick. Yet, Jacksonville traded up to select Colorado Buffaloes WR/CB Travis Hunter at No. 2, who was a hefty -900 favorite to go second.
But, Cleveland did right by the market and took Michigan Wolverines DT Mason Graham fifth, and he was a -115 favorite to get drafted in that spot. Before Graham, the New York Giants picked Penn State Nittany Lions pass rusher Abdul Carter third (-650), and the New England Patriots grabbed LSU Tigers OT Will Campbell at No. 4 (-450).
Despite getting late action to be picked fifth overall, which I fell for, Boise State Broncos RB Ashton Jeanty went to the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 6 (-125), as the sportsbooks projected earlier this week. The only plus-money payout among the top-seven picks won when the New York Jets drafted Missouri Tigers OT Armand Membou (+150) seventh.
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Then, the betting favorites to go 8-10 struck out. The Carolina Panthers opted for Arizona Wildcats WR Tetairoa McMillan with the eighth pick rather than Georgia Bulldogs LB Jalon Walker, who had the best odds of going there (+150). Texas Longhorns OT Kelvin Banks Jr. went to the New Orleans Saints at No. 9, not the favorite Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders (+215).
Penn State Nittany Lions edge rusher Abdul Carter is selected by the New York Giants third in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. (Photo Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images)
The biggest surprise of the first round was the Chicago Bears passing on Penn State TE Tyler Warren (+350) to draft Michigan TE Colston Loveland 10th. Warren closed as a -450 favorite to be the first tight end selected in the 2025 NFL Draft. I didn't see anyone mock Loveland ahead of Warren among the 20 mock drafts I read before Thursday.
Look, as someone who bets sports daily, I've trusted sportsbook odds for games, futures, player awards, etc. more than the so-called "experts" for years. That said, the movement of NFL draft odds is usually due to people betting stuff (aka "price speculation") following an insider's report or a popular analyst's mock draft. But, this is a great reminder that "money talks and bullsh*t walks".
Finally, if you blindly bet to win $100 on the favorites for the first round's top-10 picks, you would've profited $450 from the 2025 NFL Draft Thursday. Albeit, it would've taken two "bridge jumper bets" on Miami Hurricanes QB Cam Ward (-20000) and Hunter. However, a $450 gain over two hours sounds like a good return on investment to me.
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