'Barnburners and Bracket Busters': Best Bets For Friday In The 2025 Sweet 16

After getting absolutely waxed in the first two rounds, I wasn't exactly champing at the bit to bet the Sweet 16 of the 2025 NCAA Tournament March 27-28. However, I dusted myself off and gave out two winning bets Thursday: The Alabama Crimson Tide -4.5 against the BYU Cougars, and Over 154.5 in the Arizona Wildcats vs. Duke Blue Devils. 

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I cannot understate how brutal March Madness has been for me socially, professionally, and financially. My bracket was busted when my alma mater and my pick to win the national title, St. John's, got upset by Arkansas in the second round. All five of my survivor pool entries have been eliminated. Oh, and I lost nine consecutive games entering the Sweet 16.

With that in mind, I'll try to climb out of the 2025 March Madness betting hole I've dug. The South and Midwest Regionals play their semifinals Friday. I should only bet on one game Friday. But, I ran hot Thursday in the Sweet 16 and Opening Day in MLB, and I feel like I'm due for a heater. If the following bets lose, I'll probably go AWOL for the Elite Eight Saturday. 

2025 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Best Bets for Friday 

The odds are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks at the time of writing. 

• Ole Miss Rebels +3.5 (-110) vs. Michigan State Spartans via DraftKings, risking 1.1 units (u).
• OVER 133 (-110) in Purdue Boilermakers vs. Houston Cougars via Fanatics Sportsbook, risking 1.1u.

Ole Miss vs. Michigan State 

Okay, technically this might not be a "bracket buster" because most people have either Duke or an SEC winning the national championship. Nevertheless, the Spartans were a sleeper pick to make the Final Four in some people's brackets, and the headline is catchy, so give me a break. 

Anyway, at the beginning of the NCAA tourney, I called the SEC "overrated". Instantly, those hillbillies made me look stupid, and five of the Elite Eight teams could be from the SEC. Well, being stubborn is a quick way to go broke betting on sports, and apparently, SEC basketball in 2025 is historic.  

More importantly, I love this matchup for the Rebels. Head coach Chris Beard is a defensive mastermind, and Michigan State is 323rd out of 364 DI schools in 3-point shooting. Finally, Ole Miss should win the "battle for possessions". Per Ken Pom, the Rebels are third in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) and 33rd defensively, while MSU is 245th in defensive TOV%. 

Prediction: Ole Miss 72, Michigan State 68 

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Purdue vs. Houston 

Overs went 4-0 Thursday in the Sweet 16, so the traditional sports betting logic suggests backing Unders Friday. Especially considering the public is hammering the Over in this game. Plus, the Boilermakers and Cougars both play at a snail's pace. According to Ken Pom, Purdue is 304th in offensive tempo, and Houston is 345th. 

However, the only way the Boilermakers can upset the Cougars on Friday is by speeding up the pace and getting hot from 3-point land. Purdue is eighth nationally in offensive efficiency, but Houston has the best defensive rating in the country. I.e., the Boilermakers are likelier to score by running and gunning than playing half-court offense. 

I used this analysis when correctly betting the Over 154.5 on Arizona-Duke Thursday. I knew the Blue Devils could score at will and the Wildcats would have to speed up the tempo to keep pace. Sure enough, Duke beat 'Zona 100-93. Even though the Blue Devils won pretty much wire-to-wire, Arizona hung in tough and covered the spread. 

Furthermore, Houston leads the nation in 3-point percentage, so it'll be comfortable with an up-and-down game. The Cougars can land "body blows" inside the arc because the Boilermakers rank 341st in defensive 2-point percentage, according to Ken Pom. Houston will get great looks from behind the arc since Purdue's interior defense is trash. 

Prediction: Houston 78, Purdue 68 

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