Who Wins The 2025 National Championship And Why: Florida Gators Vs. Houston Cougars
Thank God, the hellscape of the 2025 NCAA Tournament concludes Monday, April 7. Mercifully, the Florida Gators face the Houston Cougars at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas, for the men's college basketball national championship at 8:50 p.m. ET. After a mostly drama-less first four rounds of the NCAA tourney, a Final Four with all 1-seeds lived up to the billing.
However, besides two Sweet 16 games, I've been wrong about everything in this tournament. I started the tourney losing nine consecutive games. My pick to win the national championship, St. John's Red Storm, got knocked out in the second round. Then I face-planted in the Final Four, giving out losers when I titled the article "Three Winning Wagers".
SIGN UP for The Daily OutKick. New Look, Same Attitude.
Enough about me, though. Let's discuss the national championship, which, according to the sportsbooks, is a coin-flip game. Florida punched its ticket into the title game by beating the SEC rival Auburn Tigers 79-73. Gators All-American guard Walter Clayton Jr. scored a game-high 34 points to help them rally from an 8-point first-half deficit.
Florida Gators guard Walter Clayton Jr. gets to the cup against the Auburn Tigers in the Final Four of the 2025 NCAA Tournament at Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas. (Photo Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images)
Then Houston pulled off the shocker of the tournament by upsetting the Duke Blue Devils 70-67 as +5 underdogs. The shocking part wasn't the Cougars winning, it was how they did it. Duke looked like the better team for 39 minutes, leading by as many as 14 points. But, between missed free throws, sketchy officiating, and brain farts, the Blue Devils choked the game away.
Related: MEN'S FINAL FOUR DRAWS MASSIVE NUMBERS, APPARENTLY PEOPLE LIKE GREAT TEAMS
Duke is a tougher matchup because of its size and is a better team than Florida. So, if the Cougars can find a way to beat the Blue Devils, they should beat the Gators too. Three of Houston's four losses this season have been in overtime, and it hasn't lost in regulation since Nov. 9, 2024, to Auburn 74-69.
Houston Cougars guard L.J. Cryer shoots a 3-pointer over the Duke Blue Devils in the Final Four of the 2025 NCAA Tournament at the Alamodome. (Photo credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images)
Furthermore, 3-point shooting and the "battle for possessions" are the most important things in basketball, and the Cougars have the edge in both. They lead the nation in 3-point shooting rate. Houston's three leaders in 3-point attempts per game all shoot above 40% from behind the arc, while Florida doesn't have anyone shooting better than 40% from deep.
Lastly, the Cougars are 20th in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) and 24th defensively, and lead the nation in defensive rating, per Ken Pom. Florida is 75th in offensive TOV% and 201st in defensive TOV%. As we saw with Houston in the Final Four, it finds a way to hit 3-pointers when needed and forces opponents into making mistakes with aggressive defense.
Prediction: Houston 75, Florida 70
- The best odds I found for the Cougars were at DraftKings, where their moneyline is -105. For the record, I'd bet Houston's moneyline up to -125.
_____________________________
Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my college basketball 2025 betting record via X all season.