Fading An Overrated SEC In Two Of Three Bets Friday In The 2025 NCAA Tournament's First Round

Apparently, the SEC is God's gift to college basketball. If you don't believe me, just listen to every betting preview for the 2025 NCAA Tournament, besides my OutKick Bets Podcast (shameless plug), which has glazed the SEC. Well, call me a skeptic because I'm fading these jabronis all tourney. 

I'm starting Friday in the first round of the Big Dance with two of my best bets. The other is a fade of the second-most overrated conference in college hoops, the Big Ten. Without any further ado, let's get into who I'm betting on, and why, Friday in the Round of 64. 

2025 NCAA Tournament Betting Card: March 21

These bets are the best available odds at legal U.S. sportsbooks at the time of writing. 

• East Region: 9-seed Baylor Bears (+100) vs. 8-seed Mississippi State Bulldogs via DraftKings, risking 1 unit (u).
• West Region: 8-seed UConn Huskies -5.5 (-105) vs. 9-seed Oklahoma Sooners via FanDuel, risking 1.05u.
• East Region: 12-seed Liberty Flames +7.5 (-115) vs. 5-seed Oregon Ducks via BetMGM, risking 1.15u.

Baylor (+100) vs. Mississippi State, 12:15 p.m. ET

Since I have St. John's cutting winning the national title and the Bears beat the Johnnies on a neutral floor, I guess they can beat anyone in the country. Baylor is thin but has a couple of players I like, including PF Norchad Omier, who helped Miami make the 2023 Final Four, and a probable top-10 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, wing V.J. Edgecombe.  

Also, Mississippi State is an awful 3-point shooting team. The Bulldogs are 297th out of 364 DI schools in 3-point percentage, 314th in defensive 3-point shooting, and 250th in defensive 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr), per Ken Pom. I watched the Bears go 15-for-29 from behind the arc vs. St. John's earlier this season, the best defense in college basketball. 

Aside from Baylor's edge from 3-point range, these teams are fairly even. The Bears are 29th in Ken Pom's ratings and the Bulldogs are 32nd. But, since 3-balls are the end-all-be-all in basketball nowadays, Baylor has more postseason experience, and Mississippi State was an 8-10 in an overrated SEC, I'll roll with the Bears. 

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Oklahoma at UConn (-5.5), 9:25 p.m. ET 

The Sooners epitomize the SEC being overrated. The selection committee excused their 6-12 conference record because "It just means more in the SEC" and OU started the season 13-0 in non-conference games. So, to make Oklahoma a 9-seed, the selection committee is banking on the SEC being "historically great" as the media says. 

However, Big East basketball is historically underrated and even though it's a down year for the Huskies, the reigning back-to-back national champions will dust the Sooners Friday. UConn has a better shot profile, attempting more dunks and 3-pointers than the Sooners and allowing fewer on defense, per Bart Torvik. 

The UConn Huskies play the Oklahoma Sooners Friday in the East Regional of the 2025 men's college basketball NCAA Tournament. (Photo credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images)

Furthermore, Connecticut punishes opponents inside, ranking 16th nationally out of 364 DI schools in 2-point percentage. Oklahoma is 322nd in defensive 2-point percentage and 284th in defensive 3PAr. It's concerning that OU doesn't protect the paint or close out on 3-pointers. 

Lastly, UConn has a strength-on-weakness edge on the boards. The Sooners are 277th in offensive rebounding rate and 277th defensively, according to Ken Pom. While the Huskies are 63rd in defensive rebounding rate and 24th offensively. Basically, Oklahoma has too many weaknesses for a well-coached team like Connecticut to exploit. 

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Liberty (+7.5) vs. Oregon, 10:10 p.m. ET 

I'm relying on the college basketball gurus here. Ken Pom makes the Ducks a -5 favorite and Bart Torvik and Erik Haslam make Oregon a -2 favorite over the Flames. The sportsbooks agreed with Ken Pom initially, opening the Ducks as -4.5 favorites before the betting market steamed them up to the current odds. 

The recipe for pulling off an upset in the NCAA tourney is to slow down the pace and hit 3-pointers, and Liberty does both. The Flames are 290th in tempo, fifth in 3-point percentage, and 23rd in 3PAr, according to Ken Pom. 

Finally, Liberty has a better shot profile, albeit vs. much easier competition. The Flames have a +5.5% differential in dunk rate taken vs. allowed (the Ducks are -2.2%), per Bart Torvik. Liberty's "farther 2-point" volume is smaller than Oregon's (25.6-10.3%), which is the worst shot in basketball. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my college basketball 2025 betting record via X all season.