2025 NBA Playoffs Best Bets: Pacers-Cavaliers Game 1, Warriors-Rockets Game 7
One series begins and another ends Sunday in the 2025 NBA Playoffs. First, the first-place Cleveland Cavaliers host the divisional rival Indiana Pacers for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Then, the seventh-seeded Golden State Warriors visit the second-seeded Houston Rockets for Game 7 of their first-round postseason series.
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As a true basketball betting sicko, I'm betting both games Sunday. I won six of my last seven playoff games, including four straight before the Los Angeles Clippers Clippers'd Saturday, and got crushed by the Denver Nuggets in Game 7. That said, I'm calling my shot and starting a new streak on Sunday with the following looks.
2025 NBA Playoffs Best Bets: May 4
The odds are the best available at the time of writing.
- Indiana Pacers +8.5 (-108), down to +7, at the Cleveland Cavaliers via DraftKings, risking 1.08u.
- Houston Rockets -2.5 (-108), up to -3.5, vs. the Golden State Warriors via FanDuel, risking 1.08u.
Pacers (+8.5) at Cavaliers Game 1
I'm saying these teams split the regular-season series 1-1 straight up and against the spread. They played four times, but I'm not counting Indiana's two wins in April because Cleveland locked up the 1-seed for the Eastern Conference Playoffs and rested most of its starters.
Despite the Cavs finishing 14.0 games better than the Pacers, Cleveland isn't eight points better than Indy. Granted, the Cavaliers have gotten much better under first-year head coach Kenny Atkinson. Nonetheless, these teams know each other, and the Pacers have the same coach and roster that made the 2024 Eastern Conference Finals.
Indiana split its home-and-away back-to-back vs. Cleveland January 12 and 14 even though Pacers PG Tyrese Haliburton missed the second half of the first game with a hamstring, forcing him to miss their next meeting. Haliburton has played much better since the NBA All-Star Game and balled in the first round of the playoffs.
His true shooting rate, which factors in 2-point, 3-point, and free-throw shooting, increased by nearly 100 percentage points post-All-Star break (68.1-58.9%). Haliburton's offensive rating went from 124 to 146 in the second half of the season and his assists per game from 8.5 to 11.0.
Related: TYRESE HALIBURTON'S DAD BANNED FROM PACERS GAMES, TELLS NEW STORY ON SPAT WITH GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO
The 2024 Paris Summer Olympics gold medalist averaged 17.6 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 11.6 assists against the Milwaukee Bucks last round. Haliburton capped off the series by blowing past Giannis Antetokounmpo, one of the best defensive players in the world, for a game-winning layup in overtime.
If Haliburton is playing well, the Cavs have no one to guard him, whereas Pacers wing Aaron Nesmith and SG Andrew Nembhard are solid perimeter defenders. Will Cleveland All-Star SG Donovan Mitchell "get his?" Probably. But, at least Indy will make him work. Haliburton could potentially get in the paint whenever he wants in this series.
In this fast-paced, 3-point shooting era of the NBA, -8.5 isn't a big spread to cover. However, that works both ways for this matchup since Indiana can also sneak in the backdoor by draining 3-pointers. Regardless, between continuity, coaching, and roster depth, the Pacers won't need to sneak in the backdoor to cover Game 1.
Prediction: Cavaliers 116, Pacers 112
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Warriors at Rockets (-2.5) Game 7
I'll say some stuff I don't even believe anymore, e.g., the sportsbooks know everything and sharp vs. sucker money. They (the sportsbooks) are begging you to take Golden State +2.5 and Houston is the sharp play. The Rockets are unproven and would have to come back from a 3-1 series deficit, while the Dubs have champions and Hall of Famers.
Houston Rockets C Alperen Sengun shoots a floater over the Golden State Warriors in Game 6 of their first round series in the 2025 NBA Playoffs. (Photo credit: Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images)
Yet, Houston was a -2 home favorite in Game 1 and -2.5 in Game 7. This tells us the market is changing its opinion about the Rockets, and I have too. They are winning three of the "four factors" (shooting, rebounding, and free-throw margin) and out-scoring the Warriors 106.5-104.2 in points per game. Houston waxed Golden State in Games 5 and 6.
Finally, the Rockets are just physically overwhelming the Warriors. Houston is scoring 10.3 more paint PPG (47.0-36.7) and 5.3 more putback points per 100 misses, per CleaningTheGlass.com. Rockets bigs Alperen Şengün and Steven Adams are dominating the interior, and the Dubs don't have enough 3-point shooters to play them off the floor.
Prediction: Rockets 109, Warriors 100
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