Do Yourself A Favor And Fade These Two Bets For NBA Playoffs Tuesday
Initially, I wanted to take a break from handicapping (not betting) the 2025 NBA Playoffs this past week because I was hemorrhaging money in the playoffs and partying with old friends in Austin, Texas. Then, I hit my two bets given out on X Thursday, so I wrote up a couple of picks for Friday, which both lost. This led me to post "My NBA content is cursed" on X Saturday morning.
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That said, I bounced back Monday by cashing on the Houston Rockets covering +4 in their 109-106 Game 4 loss at the Golden State Warriors, and I need betting content Tuesday. Furthermore, I'm transparent about my current cold streak, allowing you guys to fade my shi**y NBA picks. Hopefully, the people who tail me win, but either way, here are my looks for Tuesday.
2025 NBA Playoffs Betting Card: April 29
The odds are the best available at the time of writing.
- Milwaukee Bucks +8 (-108), down to +6.5, at Indiana Pacers via FanDuel, risking 1.08 units (u).
- UNDER 208.5 (-110), down to 207.5, in Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets, risking 1.1u.
Bucks (+8) at Pacers
My bankroll will take a hit whenever Indiana (3-1) closes Milwaukee out. I mentioned "betting one-third of my rent" on the Bucks +185 to win this series on my OutKick Bets Podcast previewing the first round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs. I'm admitting defeat based on how well the Pacers are playing and Milwaukee All-Star PG Damian Lillard suffering a season-ending injury in Game 4.
Yet, I'm taking one more swing with the Bucks in Game 5, perhaps foolishly. They were +6 on the road without Dame in the series opener and won't go out like punks Tuesday. "Pacers -6" is a big number for a close-out game and Bucks head coach Doc Rivers can talk his team into rallying from a 3-1 deficit since he is the only coach in NBA history to blow three 3-1 leads in the playoffs.
Plus, the market expects Milwaukee to quit because of the inevitability it loses this series, Lillard's injury and people watching the Cleveland Cavaliers slaughter the Miami Heat in a close-out game Monday. But, the Bucks and Pacers are splitting the "four factors" and Giannis Antetokounmpo can destroy Indy himself. Will it happen? Probably not, but Milwaukee +8 is a big number.
Prediction: Pacers 114, Bucks 110
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UNDER 208.5 in Clippers at Nuggets
Despite the total falling from 225 in the series opener to 211.5 in Game 4, the Under cashed in the first four games of this series. Clippers-Nuggets have the third-slowest pace of any first-round series in the 2025 NBA Playoffs. Also, Denver has the lowest 3-point-attempt rate in the postseason and LA is 13th in free-throw attempt rate among the 16 playoff teams.
Los Angeles Clippers' Kawhi Leonard looks to pass with Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic and PF Aaron Gordon defending him during Game 2 in the first round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs at Ball Arena. (Photo Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images)
Meanwhile, the Over cashed in four straight NBA postseason games, and more than 80% of the action is on the Over for Clippers-Nuggets Game 5 at the time of writing, per Pregame.com. The market probably thinks this total is too low considering Nikola Jokić is the best offensive player since Michael Jordan and Kawhi Leonard looks like he is at the peak of his powers.
Both teams like to run their half-court offenses and operate more in the mid-range than behind the arc, and Los Angeles has one of the best defenses in the NBA this season. Finally, Game 5 is usually "nut crunching time," and basketball games slow down when the stakes are higher.
Prediction: Nuggets 103, Clippers 101
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.