Coming Back From A Bloody First Day In 2025 NBA Playoffs With 'Best Bets' For Easter Sunday
As I forewarned in my best bets (🤮) for the first day of the 2025 NBA Playoffs: "I'll regroup if I get smacked in the first few days of the postseason." Well, that's exactly what happened Saturday. I ambitiously bet all four Game 1's in the first round of the playoffs, and they all lost.
One was a "tough beat." My Denver Nuggets -2.5 bet lost when the Los Angeles Clippers hit a meaningless 3-pointer with less than a second left in their 112-110 overtime loss. It's not a "bad beat," though. The underdog should always cover in overtime, and the Clippers had a 15-point lead at one point. The other three were just garbage reads that were pretty much dead by halftime.
Because I had to sleep off this pathetic performance, I'm getting a late start to my bets for Easter Sunday in the 2025 NBA Playoffs. So, rather than write up my player prop for the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. the Memphis Grizzlies tipping off at 1 p.m. ET, I posted it on X. Otherwise, I'm sticking to the original plan and betting the four Game 1's Sunday since "shooters shoot."
2025 NBA Playoffs Betting Card: April 20
The odds are the best available at the time of writing.
- OKC Thunder C Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 22.5 points-rebounds-assists (-115) vs. Memphis Grizzlies via FanDuel, risking 0.58 units (u).
- OVER 205 (-110), up to 207, in Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics via DraftKings, risking 1.1u.
- Miami Heat +12.5 (-108), down to +11, at Cleveland Cavaliers via DraftKings, risking 1.08u.
- Houston Rockets moneyline (-115) vs. Golden State Warriors via Caesars Sportsbook, risking 1.15u.
OVER 205 in Magic at Celtics
Despite going 0-4 Saturday, this is the biggest "sucker bet" I've made so far in the postseason. After all, three of my four bets Saturday had "closing line value," which is loser talk, but at least I got good prices. That said, Overs in the playoffs or primetime games, for any sport, are considered "square."
Yet, the total for Magic-Celtics April 9 was 206 and Boston was resting all of its starters. I know the market is adjusting to the slower pace we usually see in the playoffs, but this total is just too low. Or maybe not and I'll lose again. We'll see. Nevertheless, eight of the last 10 Magic-Celtics meetings have combined for 209+ points.
Also, Boston is 2-1 Over/Under (O/U) on four-plus days of rest with a 6.5 O/U margin and its home games combine for 227.5 points per game (PPG), compared to 221.8 PPG on the road. Finally, Orlando gives up 4.1 more PPG in away games (107.6-103.5 PPG) and is 13-8 O/U as a road underdog.
Prediction: Celtics 111, Magic 100
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Heat (+12.5) at Cavaliers
If you've read my NBA stuff before (most of you haven't, judging by the page views), you'll know I'm a big believer in "Heat Culture." Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra is one of the best in the NBA. Heat big, and 2024 Paris Olympic gold medalist, Bam Adebayo, is one of my favorite non-New York Knicks, and I love combo guard Tyler Herro's game.
Cleveland was 2-1 straight up, but 1-2 against the spread (ATS) vs. Miami this season. The Heat covered as +13.5 road underdogs without Herro in a 112-107 loss to the Cavs, at full strength, in their final regular-season meeting March 5. That matters because Miami has been playing well down the stretch after dealing with the Jimmy Butler situation earlier this year.
The Heat were fifth in net rating (+9.4) in the last 15 games of the regular season, and the Cavaliers were 14th (+2.7). Granted, Cleveland had home court in the playoffs locked up a while ago. But, that doesn't change how well Miami is playing. Plus, the Cavs haven't played an important game in months, while the Heat won two "must-win" play-in games to make the postseason.
That said, Spoelstra has figured out his playoff lineups and the Heat have a few ways they can cover this number Sunday. First, Miami is ninth in defensive rating, and Bam and rookie C Kel'el Ware can hold up against Cavaliers bigs Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. Second, Spoelstra and the Heat's core have more playoff experience. Lastly, they are stacked with 3-point shooters.
Prediction: Cavaliers 117, Heat 110
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Warriors at Rockets (-115)
Like we saw in the Minnesota Timberwolves' 117-95 boat-race of the Los Angeles Lakers Saturday, this younger, hungrier Houston squad will punch the Golden State veterans in the face Sunday. If I had to make a bet for the series, it would be the Warriors. However, the Rockets are taking Game 1 at home.
Houston waxed a healthy Golden State 106-96 on the road earlier this month. Rockets wing Amen Thompson "locked up" Steph Curry, and Houston out-performed the Warriors in three of the "four factors". Curry scored just 3 points on 1-for-10 shooting. Ultimately, the Rockets have plenty of on-ball defenders and agitators to throw at Curry.
The Houston Rockets host the Golden State Warriors Sunday for Game 1 of their first round series in the 2025 NBA Playoffs. (Photo credit: Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images)
Furthermore, Houston should own Golden State on the glass. The Warriors play mostly small-ball lineups and 6-foot-6 forward Draymond Green is their starting center. Whereas the Rockets have a +6.4 rebound-per-game margin this season and a deep frontcourt with four 6-foot-11 bigs, including centers Alperen Şengün and Steven Adams, and PF Jabari Smith Jr.
Prediction: Rockets 114, Warriors 109
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.