2025 NBA Playoffs Best Bets, Odds: Cavaliers-Pacers, Thunder-Nuggets Game 3s

As per tradition, I jinxed myself Wednesday when mentioning my 2025 NBA playoff betting heater. Plus, I have a "Wednesday basketball curse," that's plagued me all season. Whenever I play in my Wednesday pick-up basketball sessions, I lose whatever bets I make. I don't have an explanation, it's just a pattern I've noticed. 

Nevertheless, I'm getting back on the hardwood Friday in the 2025 NBA Playoffs. Honestly, I don't have anything else planned Friday except for gambling on basketball. I know that sounds lame, but I have a few summer trips lined up, and I want to make some "spending cash" for them. That said, here are my NBA looks for Friday. 

2025 NBA Playoffs Betting Card: May 9 

The odds are the best available at the time of writing. 

• Indiana Pacers +5 (-110), down to +3, vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers via DraftKings, risking 1.1 units (u).
• "Sprinkle" a 0.4u on Indiana's +178 moneyline via Caesars Sportsbook.
• Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 (-110), up to -6, at the Denver Nuggets via BetMGM, risking 1.1u.

Cavaliers at Pacers (+5)

Cleveland is a -4 favorite as of Friday morning for Game 3 after opening as a slight -1 favorite. Perhaps that line movement is based on Cavs PG Darius Garland and PF Evan Mobley being "questionable" in this "must-win". But, there's an expectation in the market that a 64-win Cavaliers team won't go out like punks, and it's usually wise to fade what people think. 

There is one historical comp to this situation: The Miami Heat upsetting the Boston Celtics in the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals. After winning the first two games of the series, Miami was a +4.5 home underdog for Game 3 and waxed Boston 128-102. No one believed the Heat could beat the Celtics until they did. 

Furthermore, even if they play, it could take Garland and Mobley a game or two to find their rhythm. Garland is Cleveland's primary ball-handler and hasn't played since Game 2 of the first round. Due to his elite defense, Mobley should be "plug-and-play," but you never know. Maybe he is skittish offensively or not 100%, so his defense suffers a little. 

Regardless, these teams rely on 3-balls, and the Pacers have an edge in that area. Their effective field goal rate, which accounts for 2-and 3-point shooting, is 23 percentage points higher at home than on the road (57.3-55.0%). Indy is getting nine more "wide-open" 3-point shots per game in this series. If that continues, Indiana will sweep Cleveland, regular-season records be damned. 

Prediction: Pacers 117, Cavaliers 113

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Thunder (-5.5) at Nuggets

Denver stole Game 1, rallying from down 11 points with 4:31 remaining to win 121-119. Then Oklahoma City woke up and destroyed the Nuggets 149-106 in Game 2 Wednesday. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tore Denver apart, scoring a game-high 34 points on 84.6% shooting in Game 2. 

This leads to my next point, "This is SGA's year". Look, Nikola Jokić is the best player in the world currently. I'll respectfully admit that. His numbers and importance to the Nuggets back that up. Yet, SGA has become almost underrated. He averaged an NBA-best 32.7 points per game on 51.9% shooting during the regular season, which is insane for a primary ball-handler. 

Also, there's been a different champion for the past six seasons. Five of those six champions were led by "generational players," including Jokic, Steph Curry, Giannis, and LeBron. Well, Gilgeous-Alexander is generational, and Thunder VP Sam Presti, 2024-25 NBA Executive of the Year, did a phenomenal job building around him. 

Finally, since the 2015 NBA Playoffs, home underdogs are 10-35 straight up and 12-32-1 against the spread in the game after losing by at least 20 points. Those teams have an -8.1 scoring margin and a -3.0 spread differential in those games. Essentially, the market wrongly bets on the team that just got slaughtered to bounce back, and that's not the case over the past 10 postseasons. 

Prediction: Thunder 121, Nuggets 112

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.