Two 'Locks' For Heat-Bulls, Mavericks-Kings In 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament
The 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament continues Wednesday with two must-win games. Whoever loses Wednesday is eliminated. While the winners live to fight another day and will advance to the playoffs by winning again Friday to clinch the 8-seeds in their respective conferences.
LISTEN: OutKick Bets Podcast's 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament Best Bets Ft. David Troy
The first matchup in the doubleheader pits two teams who participate in the play-in tournament annually: Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls. Afterward is a game between two teams that both traded their best players mid-season: Dallas Mavericks vs. Sacramento Kings. Rather than waste more time, here are my looks for both games.
2025 NBA Play-In Tournament Best Bets for Wednesday
These bets were released on the OutKick Bets Podcast on Monday, April 14.
- OVER 219 (-110), up to 221, in Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls via DraftKings, risking 1.1 units (u)
- Dallas Mavericks +5 (-110) at Sacramento Kings via DraftKings, risking 1.1u.
- "Sprinkling" on the Dallas Mavericks' moneyline (+180) via Caesars Sportsbook, risking 0.5u.
OVER 219 in Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls
This is the third consecutive season these teams have met in the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament. Miami beat Chicago for the 8-seed each of the past two years. The Bulls swept the Heat in the regular-season series this year, 3-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). All three were fast-paced with 223+ points scored.
Chicago likes to get out in transition, and Miami should want to play fastbreak basketball. The Bulls get out in transition at the fifth-highest frequency in the NBA since the All-Star break, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). The Heat are 17th in half-court offensive efficiency over that span, but sixth in fastbreak efficiency.
The Miami Heat visit the Chicago Bulls Wednesday at the United Center in the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament. (Photo credit: David Banks-Imagn Images)
Besides All-Star combo guard Tyler Herro, Miami doesn't have anyone who can create their own shot. But, the Heat have a bunch of sharpshooters, and Chicago likes to run and gun. Lastly, the Bulls have gone Over this number in nine of their last 10 regular-season games, and Miami has gone Over this number in seven of its last 10.
Prediction: Heat 117, Bulls 113
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Dallas Mavericks (+5) at Sacramento Kings
I'm more or less fading Sacramento, which doesn't have a single defensive difference-maker on its roster. Basically, I don't trust a team led by Kings big Domantas Sabonis, SG Zach LaVine, and wing DeMar DeRozan in a must-win game. LaVine and DeRozan were on the Bulls when they lost to the Heat in the last two play-in tourneys.
Furthermore, Sacramento's seventh-ranked offensive rating is misleading. LaVine and DeRozan settle for too many inefficient mid-range jumpers, which won't work against Dallas's size. Meanwhile, the Kings are a bad 3-point shooting team. They are 24th in 3-point attempts per game and 19th in 3-point shooting percentage.
The Sacramento Kings host the Dallas Mavericks in the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament Wednesday (Photo credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images)
Also, Mavs' big Anthony Davis is the best player on the floor and will wear out Sabonis on Wednesday. AD leads Dallas in on/off net rating this season, per CTG. Plus, the Mavericks have three more bigs to throw at Sabonis, such as centers Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford and PF P.J. Washington. The bottom line is styles make fights, and this is a bad matchup for Sacramento.
Prediction: Mavericks 114, Kings 107
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