Fade The 'Fishy' Line For Indiana Pacers At Oklahoma City Thunder Game 5 Monday

The 'Swing Game' of the 2025 NBA Finals.

The Oklahoma City Thunder gave the Indiana Pacers a taste of their own medicine in Game 4 to even the 2025 NBA Finals at 2-2 on Friday. Down 10 points late in the third quarter, OKC shut down Indy's offense, and NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 15 of his 35 points in the final five minutes, willing the Thunder to a 111-104 Game 4 win. 

Remember, the Pacers have won several games down double digits in the second half in these playoffs, including the series opener of the NBA Finals. But, unlike Indiana with its high-octane offense, Oklahoma City's defense saved its season. The Thunder held the Pacers to 17 points on 27.8% shooting (0 for 8 from 3-point range) in the fourth quarter. 

Of course, it was a typical 2024-25 NBA result for me. I bet the Pacers +6.5 in Game 4, and they did everything in their power to lose the game outright and blow the cover. Indy backup SG Bennedict Mathurin, in particular, is on my sh*t-list. This effing guy missed three of four free throws and committed two "away from play" fouls in the last 23 seconds. 

Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder Game 5 Betting Odds 

While there won't be a "hangover effect" for Indy after a terrible Game 4 loss, OKC has been a different team at home in these playoffs. Plus, the market will back the Pacers on Monday because +9.5 is a big spread in a tied series. So, we have the "fade the public" angle, for what it's worth. 

Also, the Thunder are winning three of the "four factors" in the NBA Finals, such as rebounding, turnover, and free-throw battles. Indiana is shooting better in this series. However, besides SGA, Oklahoma City relies on role players, like SGs Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, etc., who typically shoot better at home.

Now, I know the Pacers have been a lock on the road this postseason. They are 7-3 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in road games with a +7.2 spread differential. Yet, the Thunder are 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS with a +21.5 scoring margin at home in these playoffs. Their opponents are shooting 35.9% from the field and averaging roughly 19 turnovers in those games. 

Oklahoma City's defense has been the best thing in the 2025 NBA Playoffs, and I'm more confident the Thunder have figured out Indiana's offense than vice versa. Granted, OKC got lucky to win Friday, but the Pacers have been lucky throughout the postseason and the Thunder will put their season on the brink after Game 5.

Best Bet: Oklahoma City Thunder -9 (-115) in Game 5 

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