2025 NCAA Tournament: San Diego State Will Prove The North Carolina Naysayers Right In 2025 'First Four'

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Everyone complained about the North Carolina Tar Heels (22-13) sneaking into the 2025 NCAA Tournament. However, you can bet your a** everyone is betting on the Tar Heels vs. the San Diego State Aztecs (21-9) in their First Four game Tuesday in Dayton, Ohio to sneak into the Big Dance. 

UNC opened up as -2.5 favorites at DraftKings and has been steamed up to -4.5 across the board as of Tuesday morning. According to Pregame.com, nearly 75% of the bets are on the Tar Heels. The winner of North Carolina-San Diego State is the 11-seed in the South Region and will play the 6-seed Ole Miss Rebels Friday evening. 

The North Carolina Tar Heels meet the San Diego State Aztecs Tuesday in a 'First Four' game in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. (Photo credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images)

The North Carolina Tar Heels meet the San Diego State Aztecs Tuesday in a 'First Four' game in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. (Photo credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images)

North Carolina nearly upset a Cooper Flagg-less Duke Blue Devils in the 2025 ACC Championship but lost 74-71. It was a down year for the ACC and UNC, who were No. 9 in the preseason rankings. Cap tip to them for scheduling tough non-conference opponents, but the Tar Heels got smoked by those non-ACC schools. 

San Diego State has the better resume

North Carolina only has two wins against NCAA Tournament teams this season: American, who plays Mount St. Mary's in a First Four game Wednesday for the 16-seed and ranks 237th nationally by Ken Pom, and UCLA, the 7-seed in the Midwest. The Tar Heels are just 3-6 against the spread vs. ranked teams with a -4.3 spread differential. 

SDSU was eliminated in its first Mountain West Tournament game, losing to the Boise State Broncos 62-52. However, the Aztecs have a better "record quality" than the Tar Heels, per college basketball analyst Erik Haslam. San Diego State's best wins are UC San Diego (12-seed in the South), Houston (1-seed in the Midwest), and Creighton (9-seed in the East). 

Also, I like SDSU's profile as it relates to being a feisty underdog. The Aztecs are much bigger than North Carolina, which is 306th in average height, per Ken Pom. San Diego State ranks first in block rate and has a 7-foot big (Magoon Gwath) protecting the paint. SDSU lost in its first Mountain West tourney game because Gwath missed with an injury. 

Furthermore, the Aztecs are 13th in adjusted defensive rating, sixth in defensive effective field goal rate, which accounts for 2- and 3-point shooting, and 241st in offensive tempo. Hence, SDSU can slow it down and, because UNC is 310th in defensive turnover rate, the Aztecs can run their offensive sets. 

Ultimately, styles make fights and San Diego State matches up well with North Carolina. The Aztecs "D up" and Gwath will keep the Tar Heels out of the paint. Plus, everyone is backing UNC because it is one of the most popular programs in the country and First Four teams have made tourney runs every year since it began in 2011. 

Prediction: North Carolina 69, San Diego State 68

  • The Aztecs will turn this into a "rock-fight" and it'll be a nail-biter at the end, but I expect the Tar Heels to prevail. With that in mind, I'll bet SDSU to cover the spread and take UNC to advance to the Round of 64. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my college basketball 2025 betting record via X all season.