Florida Has No Business As A Touchdown Favorite Vs. Texas Tech In Elite Eight

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The West Regional final between the 3-seed Texas Tech Red Raiders and 1-seed Florida Gators tips off an Elite Eight doubleheader Saturday in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. The Gators waxed the 4-seed Maryland Terrapins 87-71 Thursday in the Sweet 16. Texas Tech rallied from a 16-point deficit to beat the 10-seed Arkansas Razorbacks 85-83 in overtime. 

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Florida lost against the spread in the first two rounds. The Gators destroyed the 16-seed Norfolk State 95-69 in the Round of 64 but failed to cover as -28.5 favorites. As -9 favorites, they held off the reigning back-to-back national champion UConn Huskies 77-75 in the second round. 

Texas Tech played with its food in an 82-72 first-round victory as -15 favorites over 14-seed UNC Wilmington. The Red Raiders squashed any hope 10-seed Drake had of being the 2025 NCAA Tournament's Cinderella team in the second round; TTU beat Drake 77-64 as -7.5 favorites. 

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Florida Gators Handicap 

UF's depth is the reason it covered as -6.5 favorites vs. Maryland. It was a 2-point game at halftime. Then the Gators wore down the Terrapins and won the second half 47-33. Maryland's bench scored just 3 points, and Florida's bench countered with 29 points. The Gators won despite losing starting big Alex Condon to a sprained ankle in the first half. 

Red Raiders SG Chance McMillian hasn't played in the 2025 NCAA Tournament yet. McMillian is a game-time decision for the Elite Eight. However, even if McMillian doesn't play, I still like the Red Raiders +7.5 (down to +6) because depth isn't a problem for them. The two backups that played for TTU in the Sweet 16 combined for 19 points. 

Because they've been dealing with injuries all season, the Red Raiders' backups have experience. In fact, McMillian's backup, SG Christian Anderson, was Ken Pom's MVP for Arkansas-Texas Tech Thursday. Mr. Anderson scored a team-high 22 points on 50.0% shooting (5-for-5 from the foul line) with 3 assists and no turnovers. 

Texas Tech Red Raiders SG Christian Anderson shooting a 3-point in the Sweet 16 of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. (Photo credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images)

Texas Tech Red Raiders SG Christian Anderson shooting a 3-point in the Sweet 16 of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. (Photo credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images)

Also, the market is penalizing the Red Raiders for pulling off a miracle to beat the Razorbacks. The NCAA tourney is "survive and advance", and Arkansas was clearly better than its 10-seed indicated. Since Maryland closed as a +6.5 underdog vs. Florida, the market is saying Texas Tech is 1-point worse than the Terrapins. I'm calling "Bullsh*t". 

The Red Raiders do better in the turnover battle than the Gators. TTU shoots better from behind the arc and the charity stripe and grabs defensive rebounds at a higher rate. Maybe these remaining SEC schools are that good. But, I just think someone is going to play them tight eventually. Why not Texas Tech? 

Best Bet: Texas Tech Red Raiders +7.5 (-115) at BetMGM, down to +6.5. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my college basketball 2025 betting record via X all season.