AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Outrights, Placement Bets, One-And-Done Pick
The best PGA TOUR field so far this season tees it up at the second "signature event" of 2025: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, No. 3 Rory McIlroy, and the 2017 AT&T champion Jordan Spieth make their season debuts at the Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill this week.
Before becoming a "signature event" last season, the AT&T had one of the weakest fields on TOUR, which is a shame since Pebble Beach is the second-most iconic American golf course behind Augusta National. Last year, Wyndham Clark won a weather-shortened, 54-hole AT&T by going nuts and shooting a third-round 60.
LISTEN: OutKick Bets Podcast's 2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Best Bets Ft. Geoff Fienberg
You can read about the AT&T's format and past winners, and the tee times for the first two rounds. That's not really my jam, I'm only into gambling on golf. Excuse me, "losing money" on golf. Speaking of which, I'm -12.22 units (u) this season. But, all I need is one outright and I can get into the black. Let's hope it comes this week since rent is due in a couple of days.
2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Card
Picks To Win
The odds chosen are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks at the time of writing, according to OddsChecker.com.
Hideki Matsuyama (+2200)
Originally, I had Justin Thomas (+1400) as my pick the furthest up the betting board. But, Hideki is my favorite golfer, has won three times (the Genesis Invitational at another California course and FedEx St. Jude Championship last season, and The Sentry 2025) since JT's last victory, the 2022 PGA Championship, and has a better payout.
Plus, Matsuyama ranks higher than Thomas in my 24-round models at Fantasy National and BetTheNumber.com. The inputs for those models include Strokes Gained (SG): APP, SG: Around-the-Green (ARG), and proximity to the hole on APP shots from within 150 yards. Hideki is one of the best golfers in the world in all three of these skills.

Hideki Matsuyama hits an approach shot during the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. (Photo Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
We are getting good odds for Hideki because he finished T71 at the 2024 AT&T and T32 at the Farmers Insurance Open last week. Yet, last year was Matsuyama's second career start at Pebble Beach. The first was the 2019 U.S. Open, where he finished T21, but gained strokes on APP and putting. Hideki was T15 entering the final round of last week's Farmers and led the field in SG: APP among golfers who made the cut before ejecting in the final round.
Ultimately, the best argument I have for not betting Matsuyama to win at these odds is that "He won recently, and it's hard to win multiple golf tournaments in a short period", which is counter-intuitive. Winning begets more winning and Hideki has 19 international victories, including the 2021 Masters.
BET 1u on Hideki Matsuyama (+2200) to profit 22u
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Jason Day (+3500)
J-Day has never won at Pebble Beach but almost always plays well. According to Ron Klos from Betsperts, Day's average finish in the AT&T since 2016 is 7.9. Day has six T7s or better in his last seven AT&Ts with a T6 last season.
Also, good course history has been winning so far in 2025. Nick Taylor and Harris English didn't play that well before winning the Sony Open and Farmers, respectively. But, Taylor was T11, T7, and T7 in his three previous starts at the Sony. English was T2 in the 2015 Farmers and T3 in the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines, which hosts the Farmers.

Jason Day lines up his putt during the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. (Photo Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
Day's ball-striking is where I want it, but he has struggled putting to start the season. He's lost strokes on the greens in his first three starts of 2025 while gaining on approach (APP) in all three and off-the-tee (OTT) in his past two events.
However, I'm expecting the putter will come around for the Aussie. Day is one of the best putters on Poa grass greens in the world and has gained strokes putting in his final 16 starts last year, which includes all four majors and the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics. Maybe he finally wins at Pebble Beach this week as English did at Torrey Pines last week.
BET 0.57u on Jason Day (+2200) to profit 20u
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Robert MacIntyre (+6600)
It's the Pebble Beach Golf LINKS, so the Scot should be comfortable here. According to Uncle Google, "links" comes from the Scottish word "hlin" and golf was invented on links-style courses. I.e. MacIntyre grew up playing "links golf". The weather forecast says it'll be cold and windy at Pebble Beach, which sounds like Scotland.
More importantly, MacIntyre has better odds than worse golfers. He won twice on TOUR last year, including the RBC Canadian Open (which I cashed on) and the Genesis Scottish Open. Hamilton Golf & Country Club hosted the Canadian Open and is the most similar course to Pebble Beach according to DataGolf.com's "Course Fit Tool".
Since the course is short, Pebble Beach can turn into a putting contest. Well, MacIntyre proved he can putt his way to a win by gaining 11.2 strokes on the greens at the Canadian Open. Lastly, the greens at Pebble Beach are small, and you need to card "go low" here. MacIntyre is tied for third in "Going for the Green — Birdie-or-Better rate" this year and 24th last season.
BET 0.3u on Robert MacIntyre (+6600) to profit 20u
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Finishing Position Bets
Make placement bets at BetMGM or DraftKings. BetMGM never applies ‘dead heat’ rules. DraftKings and FanDuel have top-5, -10, and -20 bets that "include ties" for the 2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Harry Hall Top-20 (+220) at BetMGM: 0.5u to win 1.1u
The Englishman's five straight Top-20-finish streak was snapped with a T21 in his last start at The American Express, which sucked because I bet him to place inside the top 20. Regardless, Hall has the eighth-most total SG in this field over the last 20 rounds, per DataGolf.com. Hall is a lights-out putter, streaky with the irons, and his weakest club, the driver, shouldn't hurt him too much at Pebble Beach.
Tom Hoge Top-20 (+210) at DraftKings: 0.5u to win 1.05u
My second outright golf win ever was Tom Hoge at the 2025 AT&T, so he will be "one of my guys" forever. Hoge was T8 at the AT&T last year and 12th in 2021. Pebble Beach is the quintessential "second shot" golf course and Hoge is one of the best in the world at hitting his irons. He has gained strokes on APP and putting in his first three starts this season.
Adam Scott Top-20 (+200) at DraftKings: 0.5u to win 1u
"Scott to finish top-20" was my only winning bet in the 2024 AT&T. He finished T20 despite losing strokes putting because he was eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green. Nevertheless, Poa greens are Scott's best putting surface, and he won the 2020 Genesis Invitational at the Riviera Country Club, which also has Poa grass greens.
Moreover, Scott was T15 at The Sentry 2025 and had a fantastic end to last season. He was second at the Scottish Open, T10 at the 152nd Open Championship (golf's fourth major), T18 at the FedEx St. Jude, T2 at the BMW Championship, T4 at the TOUR Championship, T3 at the DP World Tour Championship
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2025 One-And-Done Pick: Jason Day
Me and my girlfriend's "Race for the 2025 Mayo Cup" split-entry is tied for 3,609th place out of 4,500 entries. This "One-And-Done" league started at the Sony Open. Our first three picks were Austin Eckroat at the Sony (missed cut for $0), Sam Burns at The American Express (T29 for $57,640), and Rico Hoey at the Farmers Insurance Open (missed cut for $0).
I'll take the blame for our sh*tty first two picks but Hoey was all her idea. Granted, it was her choice to make because I had to forfeit picking duties after my first two picks sucked. Nonetheless, we're aligned on Day here because of his strong course history, current form, and my girlfriend's good vibes about him since he is no longer wearing baggy pants (seriously).
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X all season.