4 Nations Face-Off Championship: Canada Vs. USA Betting Odds, Predictions
The NHL has done what no league has: Create an exciting in-season exhibition. The 2025 4 Nations Face-Off took over social media Saturday when the Canada vs. USA Round Robin game had three fights in the first nine seconds. Their rematch in the 4 Nations Face-Off Championship at the TD Garden in Boston Thursday will be the most-watched hockey game in a long time.
Canadian C and three-time Hart Trophy (NHL MVP) winner, Connor McDavid, opened the scoring with a first-period goal. But, American C Jake Guentzel tied the game 1-1 nearly five minutes later. Then C Dylan Larkin gave the USA a 2-1 lead with an even-strength goal in the second period. Guentzel put the final nail in Canada's coffin with an empty netter with 1:19 left in the game.
Team USA clinched a berth in the 4 Nations Championship with its victory over Canada Saturday. With nothing to play for, the USA rested C Auston Matthews and forward Matthew Tkachuk for their final Round Robin game against Sweden Monday (a 2-1 loss).
The Canadians held off Finland 5-3 thanks to two goals by C Nathan MacKinnon and an empty-netter by Pittsburgh Penguins C Sidney Crosby to advance to the 4 Nations title game. Canada beat Sweden 4-3 in their first 4 Nations Round Robin contest.
4 Nations Championship Betting Odds: Canada vs. USA
Via DraftKings as of noon ET, February 20.
- Moneyline: Canada (-110) | USA (-110)
- Puck Line: Canada +1.5 (-278) | USA -1.5 (+225)
- Total — 5.5 — Over (+110) | Under (-130)
Projected Lines
Courtesy of Sports Illustrated's Karl Rasmussen
USA
Forwards
First Line: LW- Jake Guentzel, C- Auston Matthews, RW- Jack Hughes
Second: LW- Brady Tkachuk, C- Jack Eichel, RW- Matthew Tkachuk
Third: LW- J.T. Miller, C- Dylan Larkin, RW- Matt Boldy
Fourth: LW- Brock Nelson, C- Vincent Trocheck, RW- Kyle Connor
Defense
First Pairing: LD- Jaccob Slavin, RD- Brock Faber
Second: LD- Zach Werenski, RD- Jake Sanderson
Third: LD- Noah Hanifin, RD- Adam Fox
Goalies
Starter: Connor Hellebuyck
Backup: Jake Oettinger
Team USA goalie Connor Hellebuyck makes a save vs. Team Canada in the second period during the 4 Nations Face-Off Round Robin stage at the Bell Centre in Montreal. (Photo credit: Eric Bolte-Imagn Images)
Canada
Forwards
First Line: LW- Brayden Point, C- Connor McDavid, RW- Mark Stone
Second: LW- Sidney Crosby, C- Nathan MacKinnon, RW- Sam Reinhart
Third: LW- Brandon Hagel, C- Anthony Cirelli, RW- Mitch Marner
Fourth: LW- Brad Marchand, C- Sam Bennett, RW- Travis Konecny
Defense
First Pairing: LD- Devon Toews, RD- Cale Makar
Second: LD- Josh Morrissey, RD- Colton Parayko
Third: LD- Travis Sanheim, RD- Drew Doughty
Goalies
Starter: Jordan Binnington
Backup: Adin Hill
Canada vs. USA Pick
There is no motivation angle to use for betting on either team. Canada and the USA have been chirping at each other through the media all week. No money is at stake and this is the first year of the 4 Nations competition. Both teams are just playing for their countries. It's a beautiful thing to see.
Look, I won't sit here and pretend to be a hockey betting analyst. The last hockey game I bet was Game 7 of the 2024 NHL Stanley Cup Finals between the Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers. But, for the record, I did cash on my Panthers -110 Game 7 wager when Florida beat Edmonton 2-1 to hoist Lord Stanley's Cup.
That said, it's my patriotic duty to bet on America Thursday. Canadian and Boston Bruins forward, Brad Marchand, told the press USA is the best team he's ever faced at any level of hockey. That's high praise from Marchand, a four-time All-Star who has played in 157 NHL playoff games and won the 2011 Stanley Cup with the Bruins.
American C Dylan Larkin celebrates his goal against Canada in the 4 Nations Face-Off at the Bell Centre. (Photo Credit: Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images)
Also, netminder Connor Hellebuyck has been a wall in front of America's goal. Hellebuyck is 2-0 in the 4 Nations tournament with a 95.7% save rate (45 saves on 47 shots). The two-time Vezina Trophy winner for best NHL goalie leads the league this season in wins, goals against average, save rate, and shutouts for the Winnipeg Jets.
Canada G Jordan Binnington, on the other hand, has been mediocre in the 4 Nations. Binnington is fourth in save rate (89.2%) among eight goalies that have played in the 4 Nations with 8 goals allowed. According to NHL.com, Binnington has given up four goals on 13 mid-range shots this tournament.
Ultimately, this game is in Boston, Team USA has the better goalie, and the matchup between the skaters is a toss-up. I'd be lying if I said I'm betting with my brain, but I'm taking the Americans over their 51st state Thursday.
Prediction: USA 3, Canada 2
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Player Props
American C Jake Guentzel OVER 0.5 points (+110)
Guentzel leads all American forwards in ice time per game during the 4 Nations and is on the USA's first power-play line. He had the highest Corsi rate (77.1%) in a two-goal effort vs. Canada in their Round Robin game Saturday, according to MoneyPuck.com. Corsi rate measures shot attempt differential during even-strength play in hockey.
Canada C Sidney Crosby UNDER 0.5 points (+100)
In 19:03 of ice time vs. Team USA Saturday, Crosby had 0.0 expected goals despite starting his shift in the offensive zone a team-high nine times, per MoneyPuck.com. McDavid is the best player in the sport, and he should be able to get scoring chances regardless of the American defense. But, Crosby isn't at that level anymore and Team USA can shut him down.
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