Sungjae Im Busting His Slump And Winning The 2024 Wyndham Championship
The PGA TOUR has a hard act to follow after last week's spectacular 2024 Paris Summer Olympic Men's Golf Tournament. Between the leaderboard, dramatic finish, and Le Golf National, the Olympics are the best golf tournament this year. Unfortunately, this week is a relative dud: 2024 Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina.
Granted, 20 Olympians are in the Wyndham's 150-plus-golfer field. But, it's the final regular-season event. So, the best PGA TOUR players are resting up for next week's FedExCup Playoffs, giving golfers a chance to sneak in. Since only the top 70 golfers make the FedExCup Playoffs, most of the guys around the bubble are playing in the Wyndham.
By the way, *golf clap* to the French for hosting an excellent event. Le Golf National was a beautiful course. The leaderboard was filled with superstars. There was action and suspense down on the back nine. More importantly, for yours truly, I snapped my PGA TOUR betting skid by correctly picking Scottie Scheffler to win the Olympic Gold.
Not only did I bet Scheffler preflop, but I bet Scottie again at 12-to-1 odds after the second round when he was five strokes behind the leader. If Xander Schauffele doesn't melt down Sunday and if Hideki Matsuyama could've made a putt on his back nine, I would've had a MONSTER Paris Summer Olympics.
All in all, I added a crucial 9.9 units (u) to my PGA TOUR 2024 bankroll. Here's a shocker: Betting the best golfer in the world is smart. Instead of fading Scheffler and getting my brains beat in, I bet him and won. I wish I had done that earlier because I'm -56.81u this season with second-place finishes in two of Scottie's wins.
Spoiler alert: I'm using the same strategy and betting the favorite at the Wyndham Championship. Plus, buyer beware: Rainstorms are forecasted for Thursday and Friday in North Carolina and I'm not sure how or when this tournament finishes).
Wyndham Championship 2024 Best Bets
Outright Picks
The odds chosen are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks.
Sungjae Im (+1400)
The South Korean hasn't won since the 2021 Shriners Children's Open, but he lights Sedgefield up. In five career Wyndham Championships from 2019-23, Im finished T6, T9, T24, T2, and T14. Sungjae has gained strokes tee-to-green (T2G) in his five starts at Sedgefield and has gained strokes off-the-tee (OTT), on approach (APP), and putting in four of them.
He has finished T12 or better in eight of his last 10 starts. This includes a T4 at the Wells Fargo Championship, T8 at the Memorial Tournament, T3 at the Travelers Championship, T4 at the Genesis Scottish Open, and T7 at The 152nd Open Championship. The two non-T12’s were missed cuts at the PGA Championship and U.S. Open, played on far tougher courses and much stronger fields.
Also, you have to "go low" at Sedgefield. Im set a PGA TOUR record for most birdies in his T5 at The Sentry in January. Sungjae has gained strokes on the greens in four of his five starts at this course and Bermudagrass greens are his best putting surface. He has picked up strokes with his putter in nine of his last 11 starts on TOUR, per DataGolf.com.
Sungjae has Strokes Gained (SG): Olympic snub. His homeland only got two spots in the Olympics and South Korea chose Tom Kim and Byeong Hun An. Kim is a better golfer than Im but An isn’t. Either way, having to sit at home and watch the Olympics like the rest of us will motivate Sungjae to finish this season strong.
I could see Im winning the Wyndham and the first round of the 2024 FedExCup Playoffs next week.
BET 1.5u on Sungjae Im (+1400) to profit 21u.
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Brian Harman (+3000)
The Georgia Bulldog is the best golfer on my 20-round model at Bet The Number. Harman ranks third in this field for driving accuracy, 10th in SG: APP, 12th in SG: Putting on Bermudagrass greens, and fourth in 3-Putt Avoidance from 25+ feet. Those are the most important stats for the Wyndham Championship.
Harman's previous 20 rounds have been in The Open, Scottish Open, Travelers, U.S. Open, and the Memorial. He made the cut in those five tournaments with a T9 at the Travelers and T21 at the U.S. and Scottish Opens.
Furthermore, two of those are "signature events", two are majors, and the Scottish Open had the toughest field for any non-major or signature event this year. With that in mind, the Wyndham will have a softer field, thus Harman has a much higher win probability.
Since Harman isn’t long OTT, these short, positional courses fit his game. The 2023 Champion Golfer of the Year has missed six cuts in his 10 starts at Sedgefield. But, Harman tied for third in the 2013 Wyndham and tied for sixth in the 2019 Wyndham. He’s gained strokes with the putter in eight of those 10 appearances and has been ball striking well lately.
Ultimately, I’ll overlook Harman’s sketchy course history because of the price and his recent form.
BET 0.7u on Brian Harman (+3000) to profit 21u.
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Keegan Bradley (+5000)
The 2024 U.S. Ryder Cup captain has played his best golf this season at short, easy courses similar to Sedgefield. For instance, Bradley lost in a playoff at the Sony Open, tied for 11th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and tied for second at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
According to Fantasy National, 6.5% more APP shots come from the 150-175-yard bucket at Sedgefield compared to the PGA TOUR average. Keegan has the third-closest proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards on TOUR in 2024. Over his last 36 rounds, Bradley is 20th in driving accuracy and 15th in SG: APP, according to Bet The Number.
He’s a lousy putter, but Bradley has picked up strokes with the flat-stick in his two career Wyndham Championships, albeit in 2016-17. Keegan has gained strokes in three of his four starts this season on Bermudagrass greens: Sony Open, Arnold Palmer Invitational, and U.S. Open.
Lastly, Bradley is a six-time PGA TOUR champion, including the 2023 Travelers (again, played at comp course to Sedgefield) and the 2011 PGA Championship, so he has legit "win equity".
BET 0.5u on Keegan Bradley (+5000) to profit 25u.
- I'm adding a top-20 bet on Keegan Bradley (+220) at BetMGM: 0.5u to win 1u.
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Finishing Position Bets
Make placement bets at BetMGM, DraftKings, or FanDuel. BetMGM never applies "dead heat" rules. DraftKings and FanDuel have top-5, -10, and -20 bets that "include ties" for the Wyndham Championship 2024.
Billy Horschel Top-10 (+260) at DraftKings: 0.5u to win 1.3u
The last time we saw Billy Ho, he had the 54-hole lead at The Open and tied for second. He withdrew from the 3M Open the following week with an illness and hasn't played since. Nevertheless, Horschel is an eight-time PGA TOUR winner with outstanding course history. He has four top-10s in 11 career Wyndham Championships, with a T11 in 2018, T6 in 2019, second in 2020, and fourth last year.
Eric Cole Top-20 (+275) at DraftKings: 0.5u to win 1.38u
After a dreadful beginning to 2024, Cole is showing some life. The 2023 PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year tied for sixth in the Rocket Mortgage Classic in June and tied for seventh the week after in the John Deere Classic. The Rocket Mortgage is at the Detroit Golf Club, another Donald Ross course.
Also, Cole has gained at least 2.2 strokes with his putter in his last four starts with shot-link data, per Bet The Number. Last year, Cole tied for 14th at the Wyndham and was an insane +8.8 SG: Putting. Cole is heating up with the flat-stick and this is a tournament where you need to knock down putts to win.
Cam Davis Top-20 (+200) at DraftKings: 0.5 to win 1u
The Aussie comes in great form and has a solid course history. Davis has gained at least 8.5 strokes T2G in his last three starts, including his second Rocket Mortgage win. Over his 28 rounds at Donald Ross courses, Davis leads the field in total SG, per Fantasy National.
Davis has progressively played better in his three career Wyndham Championships: T22 in 2019, T15 in 2020, and T7 last season. In those starts, Davis was +4.8, +5.2, and +1.7 SG: Putting, according to Bet The Number.
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