2024 U.S. Open Picks To Win, Finishing Position Bets, One-And-Done Pick
I'm going for the "North American trifecta" on the PGA TOUR this week, which I totally made up. But, my only two outright wins on TOUR this season are Jake Knapp at the Mexico Open in February and Robert MacIntyre at the RBC Canadian Open two weeks ago. Winning the 2024 U.S. Open this week at the Pinehurst Resort & Country Club's No. 2 course completes my trifecta.
LISTEN: OutKick Bets Podcast's 2024 US Open Betting Powwow Ft Geoff Fienberg from the Mayo Media Network
Pinehurst is a Donald Ross design, restored by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw in 2010. They replaced acres of turf with wire grass and sandy areas. The No. 2 course is a Par-70, playing at 7,588 yards with small Bermuda grass greens. Three U.S. Opens have been played here: 1999, 2005, and 2015. This course is a mind f---. Only three golfers shot under par here in the 2015 U.S. Open. Crenshaw called it "a thinking man’s test".
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler enters the 2024 U.S. Open as a 3-to-1 favorite to win his second major of the season after collecting his second green jacket in April. This is the shortest odds for any golfer since Tiger Woods in the 2013 PGA Championship. Speaking of which, Tiger is playing in the 2024 U.S. Open and Woods has +30000 odds. Second on the odds board is the 2024 PGA champion, Xander Schauffele, who is +1000.
Last week, I got Scottie'd for a second time this year at the Memorial Tournament. Scheffler won his fifth tournament in 2024, beating my guy Collin Morikawa, who I had an outright bet on for the Memorial, by one stroke at Muirfield Village. Because I had a top-five bet on Scheffler and two other finishing position cashes, I was only -1.56 units (u) at the Memorial. For the season, I'm -40.42u.
2024 U.S. Open Betting Card
Stats courtesy of Bet The Number from the Tour Junkies, Pay Mayo's Fantasy National, and the PGA Tour.
‘Starting 5’
The odds chosen are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks as of 4 p.m. ET Tuesday, June 11th.
Collin Morikawa (+1600)
The two-time major winner (2020 PGA Championship and 2021 Champion Golfer of the Year) is on a heater entering the 2024 U.S. Open. Morikawa has finished ninth or better in five of his last six starts, not counting the Zurich Classic, a team event. This includes a T3 at The Masters, ninth at the RBC Heritage, T4 at the PGA Championship, and second at the Memorial.
Collin is contending in tournaments while being mediocre with his irons and he's one of the best golfers with his irons. Morikawa is doing this because he's second in driving accuracy on TOUR this year and 10th in Strokes Gained (SG): Around-the-Green (ARG), the two most important skills for winning at Pinehurst.
Collin Morikawa after nearly hitting a birdie chip on the 18th green during the Round 4 the 2024 Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Ohio. (Kyle Robertson-USA TODAY Sports)
However, his iron play is coming around and Collin has picked up strokes on approach (APP) in three straight starts. Finally, Morikawa is close to winning again and generally plays well in majors. Collin was T14 at last year's U.S. Open, T5 two years ago, and T4 in 2021.
BET 1.4 units (u) on Collin Morikawa (+1400) at FanDuel to profit 22.5u.
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Hideki Matsuyama (+4500)
Until his odds drop to 25-to-1 or shorter, I'll always have money on 'Deki at a major. Matsuyama is a wizard ARG and from the bunker. He leads the PGA TOUR in SG: ARG this season and ranks 19th in sand save rate. Hideki is one of the best on TOUR at recovering from bad shots; he is sixth in Scrambling.
Hideki Matsuyama plays a shot from a bunker in a practice round prior to the 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst Resort in North Carolina. (Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)
Also, Matsuyama plays better on tougher courses. He won the 2014 Memorial and the 2021 Masters. The U.S. Open is the hardest cut to make in golf and Hideki has only missed it once in his 10 U.S. Opens. The 32-year-old finished T10 in the 2013 U.S. Open, T2 in 2017, and fourth two years ago at Brookline.
BET 0.5u on Hideki Matsuyama (+4500) at FanDuel to profit 22.5u.
- I'm also putting a 0.5u bet on Hideki Matsuyama Top-10 (+320) to profit 1.5u at BetMGM.
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Cameron Smith (+4500)
While Pinehurst is in North Carolina, the sand-scape gives me desert vibes, and Smith is an Aussie familiar with the No. 2 course’s terrain. U.S. Opens are usually on courses that wouldn’t be a good setup for Smith. Yet, the 2022 Champion Golfer of the Year finished fourth at last year’s U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club's (LACC) North Course, which resembles Pinehurst.
The "generously wide fairways" at the No. 2 course — again, not my words, Golfweek’s — help Smith because he’s inaccurate off-the-tee. Plus, he doesn’t have to worry about distance since the fairways will be firm and fast, and get a lot of rollout. Regardless, the elevated greens are Pinehurst’s best defense and Smith’s strength is his short-game.
Finally, Smith just plays well on difficult courses. At Bet The Number, I pulled total SG data for several major-type courses, including Augusta National, TPC Sawgrass (host of THE PLAYERS Championship), and various PGA Championship and U.S. Open courses. Smith is fourth in total SG at those venues, per Bet The Number.
BET 0.5u on Cameron Smith (+4500) at FanDuel to profit 22.5u.
- I'm also adding a 0.5u bet on Cameron Smith Top-10 (+320) to profit 1.5u at BetMGM.
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Sungjae Im (+8000)
The South Korean is showing some form lately. Im has three T9s or better in three of his last four starts and a T12 at the RBC Heritage five starts ago. Including the RBC, three of those tournaments were "signature events" with the other two being the Wells Fargo Championship (T9) and last week's Memorial (T8).
Also, Sungjae has average distance OTT, but he's been more accurate than the field in 13 of his 15 majors with shot-link data, according to DataGolf.com. As I've said many times, accuracy OTT is much more important than length at Pinehurst No. 2. Finally, per Bet The Number, Im is third in Sand Save rate, 16th in SG: ARG, and 20th in Scrambling, over the last 40 rounds.
BET 0.28u on Sungjae Im (+8000) at FanDuel to profit 22.5u.
- I'm also putting a 0.25u bet on Sungjae Im Top-10 (+600) to profit 1.5u at BetMGM.
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Russell Henley (+9000)
The four-time PGA TOUR champion is quietly having a great year. Henley is 10th in total SG. His biggest weakness is he doesn’t drive the ball far off-the-tee (OTT). But, Henley is seventh on TOUR this season in driving accuracy and Pinehurst is more about precision than length OTT.
Furthermore, Henley has an underrated short-game; he is 19th in SG: ARG on TOUR this season. Russell has gained strokes ARG in 11 of his last 12 majors with shot-link data, according to DataGolf.com. Lastly, Henley leads the TOUR this year in Sand Save rate, and he's a Georgia native who putts well on these southern Bermuda grass greens.
BET 0.25u on Russell Henley (+9000) at FanDuel to profit 22.5u.
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Additional Finishing Position Bets
Make placement bets at BetMGM, DraftKings, or FanDuel Sportsbooks. BetMGM doesn't apply "dead heat" rules ever. For the majors, DraftKings and FanDuel now have top-5, -10, and -20 bets that "include ties".
Xander Schauffele Top-10 (+110): 1u to profit 1.1u
Besides Scheffler, taking "Schauffele to finish top-10" is the best bet in the PGA TOUR this season. Xander got the "monkey off of his back" by winning his first major, the 2024 PGA Championship. Schauffele has 10 top-10 finishes in 14 events in 2024, including seven "signature events" and majors. More importantly, Xander plays well at U.S. Opens; he has six top-10s in seven career U.S. Opens.
Tommy Fleetwood Top-20 (+138): 0.75u to profit 1.04u
The Englishman's elite short-game makes him a perfect fit for Pinehurst No. 2. Fleetwood has gained strokes ARG in nine of his last 10 majors with shot-link data, according to DataGolf.com. Over the last 40 rounds, Fleetwood is eighth in both SG: ARG and Scrambling, per Bet The Number. He's finished in the top 20 in eight of his last 11 majors, including a T5 at the 2023 U.S. Open.
Tommy Fleetwood hits a tee shot during a practice round for the U.S. Open at Pinehurst in North Carolina. (Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)
Sepp Straka Top-20 (+250): 0.5u to profit 1.25u
The Polish Georgia Bulldog has four top 10s on TOUR since mid-April: T5 at the RBC Heritage ("signature event"), T8 at the Wells Fargo ("signature event"), T5 at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and T5 at the Memorial ("signature event"). Sepp finished T12 at The Sentry ("signature event") and T16 at both THE PLAYERS and The Masters. Straka is second in driving accuracy on TOUR this year, the most important stat for the 2024 U.S. Open.
Aaron Rai Top-20 (+450): 0.25u to profit 1.13u
Since I prioritized accuracy and long irons for the 2024 U.S. Open, Rai is fifth in my Bet The Number model and fourth in my Fantasy National model. Now, I don't think Rai has that good of a chance of winning this week at Pinehurst. However, the Englishman is ninth on TOUR in driving accuracy this season and seventh in SG: APP. Par will be a good score at the U.S. Open and Rai is sixth in Bogey Avoidance this season.
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U.S. Open 2024 One-And-Done Pick: Cameron Smith
After 21 PGA TOUR events in the 2024 Mayo Cup, I'm 962nd of 4,400 entries with $10,483,877 collected. My one-and-done choice for the Memorial, Viktor Hovland, added only $329,000 to my season-long balance. Unfortunately, I'm running out of good players to use for one-and-done. Rory McIlroy, Xander, Morikawa, Hideki, and Scheffler have been used.
Listen, anyone who isn't picking or has already used Scottie, myself included, is just looking for someone whose A-game can beat Scheffler if he plays his A- game. Smith is one of the 20 golfers I could see beating Scheffler at Pinehurst No. 2. The Aussie's touch ARG and putting are world-class. Smith is almost as good of a putter as Scottie is with his irons.
Cameron Smith lines up a putt in the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club in Kentucky. (Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Sports)
Ultimately, he's the 2022 Champion Golfer of the Year and performs well in majors. I've heard many compare TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS) and the Plantation course at Kapalua (host of The Sentry) to Pinehurst No. 2. Well, Smith won THE PLAYERS and The Sentry in his final season on TOUR in 2022.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.