Rolling With Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama In The 2024 TOUR Championship

Initially, I wasn't interested in betting on the 2024 TOUR Championship. Between the goofy format and how poorly last week's BMW Championship went for me, I figured it was time to throw in the towel for the season. That said, I've bet every other non-team PGA TOUR event this year, so I shouldn't be a coward and quit. 

Anyway, the top 30 players in the FedExCup standings compete for the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. Neither fans nor golfers like the PGA TOUR's playoff format. And the TOUR Championship isn't a good tournament for betting purposes because of the "starting strokes" format.

Last year, I dominated the TOUR Championship. I hit "Viktor Hovland as the outright winner with starting strokes (+500)" and "Xander Schauffele Top-5 with starting strokes (+280)". But, man, it's tough going to the betting window with picks for the 2024 TOUR Championship after last week's bullsh*t. 

Two of my three BMW Championship picks, Robert MacIntyre and Hideki Matsuyama, withdrew. Matsuyama's WD before Round 2 was particularly awful. Hideki was one stroke off the lead and won the first FedExCup playoff event two weeks ago, the St. Jude Championship. 

On top of Matsuyama saying "No Más" at the BMW, two of my top-10 bets, Tony Finau and Wyndham Clark, tied for 13th and double-bogeyed one of their final three holes. All in all, I lost -5.6 units (u) in the 2024 BMW Championship. My 2024 PGA TOUR balance is -46.68u entering the TOUR Championship for this cursed season. 

2024 TOUR Championship Betting Card 

Hideki Matsuyama "Winner with starting strokes" (+1200) at FanDuel 

After missing the TOUR Championship last year for the first time since becoming a full-time PGA TOUR pro in 2014, Hideki has bounced back this year. Matsuyama won the St. Jude and The Genesis Invitational ("signature event") and has top-10 finishes at THE PLAYERS Championship (T6), the Memorial Tournament (T8), and the U.S. Open (sixth). 

More importantly, Hideki has been on fire with the flat-stick and putts well on Bermudagrass greens because he is a Floridian, who practices on these greens. Per DataGolf.com, Matsuyama was +1.21 Strokes Gained: Putting per round in his bronze medal finish in the Men's Paris Olympic Golf Tournament, +2.25 at the St. Jude, and +1.09 at the BMW. 

Even though he royally screwed me last week, I'm going back to the well with Matsuyama. I bet Hideki at +1800 odds in a 50-golfer field at last week's BMW, so I love this number for the TOUR Championship. Finally, Matsuyama is my favorite golfer, and I'd rather lose with "my guy" at this price than take a shot with someone else. 

BET 1.25u on Hideki Matsuyama "winner with starting strokes" (+1200) to profit 15u

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Rory McIlroy "Top-5 with starting strokes (+140)" at BetMGM

There are no "dead heat" rules at BetMGM, so this bet cashes if McIlroy ties for fifth at the TOUR Championship. Ultimately, I cannot pass on plus-money odds for Rory to finish in the top five when he starts in sixth. McIlroy is a three-time TOUR Champion (2016, 2019, and 2022) and dominates East Lake. 

Furthermore, Rory is judged harder than other golfers because his expectations are high. By listening to the PGA TOUR's talking heads, you'd think McIlroy is having a bad season. In reality, Rory has won twice this year, the Wells Fargo Championship ("signature event") and the Zurich Classic with Shane Lowry. 

Rory McIlroy holds up the FedEx Cup trophy after winning the 2022 TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia. (Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports)

He has five more top-five finishes, including a second at the U.S. Open, T4 at the Genesis Scottish Open, and T5 at the Olympics. Lastly, golfers need to be solid throughout the bag to win at East Lake and McIlroy doesn't have a weakness. Rory is a top-five ball striker in the world and an underrated short-game. 

BET 1u on Rory McIlroy "top-5 with starting strokes" (+140) to profit 1.4u. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.