2024 Stanley Cup Finals Prediction: Edmonton Oilers At Florida Panthers Game 7
Most of you stopped caring about the 2024 Stanley Cup Finals when the Florida Panthers took a 3-0 lead over the Edmonton Oilers. Maybe I'm projecting because I thought the Oilers were cooked. But, Edmonton rallied back to tie the series and we get the greatest two words in sports Monday: "Game 7".
The Oilers are trying to become the fifth NHL team to win a series after falling three games behind and the second in a Stanley Cup Final. As a lifelong New York Yankees fan who'll forever be haunted by the Boston Red Sox coming back from a 3-0 deficit to win the 2004 ALCS, I wish this upon no fan.
Edmonton Oilers vs. Florida Panthers Game 7 Odds (BetMGM)
- Moneyline: Edmonton (-110) | Florida (-110)
- Puck Line: Oilers +1.5 (-285) | Panthers -1.5 (+228)
- Total — 5.5 — Over (+130) | Under (-150)
BetMGM (via the Yahoo! Sports app) and DraftKings (via VSIN.com) report that most betting action is on Edmonton as of 10:30 a.m. ET Monday. That's also the case with the consensus betting market, according to Pregame.com. You probably didn't need to read this to assume the public is betting the Oilers given the swing in momentum.
Oilers three-time Hart Trophy winner (NHL MVP), and heavy Conn Smythe favorite (Stanley Cup Playoffs MVP), Connor McDavid has taken this series over. He has five more points than the next closest player in the finals (11). Per BetMGM's John Ewing, McDavid has gone from +1800 odds to win the Conn Smythe after Game 3 of this series to -3000 entering Game 7.
Edmonton Oilers All-Star Connor McDavid celebrates an empty net goal with Mattias Ekholm and Adam Henrique vs. the Panthers in Game 5 of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final at Amerant Bank Arena in Florida. (Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports)
The momentum of this series has swung due to the netminders. Edmonton goalie Stuart Skinner has upped his save rate from 86.8% in Games 1-3 to 94.2% in the last three games of the finals. Florida goalie Sergei Bobrovsky was the Conn Smythe favorite following Game 3. But, Bobrovsky has gone from a 95.3% save rate in the first three games to 79.3% in Games 4-6.
Yet, despite going to Game 7, Florida is outplaying Edmonton in virtually every advanced metric. Per NaturalStatTrick.com, the Panthers have better Corsi, Fenwick, scoring-chance, and expected-goal differentials in the Stanley Cup Finals. Corsi is "any shot attempt including blocks and misses" and Fenwick is "unblocked shot attempts".
READ: If X Posts Means Anything, The Oilers Are Hyped For Game 7, While the Panthers Are Shaking In Their Skates
With this in mind, I'm going to play the percentages and fade the public in Game 7. Even though it looks like the Panthers would be lucky to hoist Lord Stanley's Cup, they are the better team. Florida was favored over the Presidents' Trophy-winning New York Rangers in the conference finals and the highest power-rated NHL team entering the playoffs.
Best Bet: Florida Panthers (-110) to win the 2024 Stanley Cup in Game 7
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