2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic: 'Starting 5', Finishing Position Bets, One-And-Done Pick
Thank god there are no more "signature events" on the PGA TOUR this season. These crappy field events, like this week's 2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic at the Detroit Golf Club, are the only ones I can win. My two outright cashes in 2024 are the Mexico and RBC Canadian Opens. I've been sucker money in the big-boy tournaments.
The Rocket Mortgage Classic is a victim of the PGA TOUR switching around its 2024 schedule. It just wrapped up a three-week swing with two "signature events" and the U.S. Open. The TOUR heads overseas in two weeks for the Scottish Open, followed by golf's final major of the season, The Open Championship.
Hence, the best player in the field per the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) is Tom Kim, who is 16th, followed by Cameron Young (23rd), and Akshay Bhatia (29th). Rickie Fowler defends his 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic title. It's the sixth year of this event and the first five have been birdie fests with an average winning score of -23.
My PGA TOUR 2024 bankroll is -46.71 units (u) after losing -6.73u at last week's Travelers Championship. Aside from Patrick Cantlay, none of my picks at the Travelers were in contention entering the weekend. At this point, it would take an absolute heater to break even on the season.
Rocket Mortgage Classic 2024 Betting Card
Stats courtesy of Bet The Number from the Tour Junkies, Pay Mayo's Fantasy National, and the PGA Tour.
‘Starting 5’
The odds chosen are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks.
Maverick McNealy (+2800)
McNealy's underlying stats are much better than his rankings suggest. He is 88th in the OWGR and 60th in the FedExCup standings. Maverick is eighth in total Strokes Gained (SG) on the PGA TOUR this season.
The Stanford alum's best finishes in 2024 include a T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T13 at the Mexico Open, T9 at THE PLAYERS Championship, T17 at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and T7 at the RBC Canadian Open.
Maverick McNealy lines up a putt during the second round of the 2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic at the Detroit Golf Club. (Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Per my stat-based model at Bet The Number, McNealy is fifth in my power rankings for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He is 14th in SG: Off-the-Tee (OTT) and 16th in Par 5 scoring over the last 50 rounds, and 22nd in SG: APP over the last 20 rounds.
Lastly, the Rocket Mortgage is a birdie fest, which means you need to get hot with the putter and McNealy is one of the best putters on TOUR. He's gained strokes on the greens in all three starts at the Detroit Golf Club and tied for eighth in 2020.
BET 0.75u on Maverick McNealy (+2800) to profit 21u.
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Robert MacIntyre (+4000)
Bobby Mac became "one of my guys" after cashing an outright for me by winning the RBC Canadian earlier this month. The Scot tied for 16th at the Travelers last week and tied for eighth at the PGA Championship in May.
Over the last 50 rounds, MacIntyre is ninth in this field for Par 5 scoring and 11th in SG: Putting on Bentgrass/Poa greens, per Bet The Number. Hamilton Golf & Country Club, host of the RBC Canadian Open, has Bent/Poa greens too.
Robert MacIntyre poses with two Canadian Mounties and the trophy after winning the 2024 RBC Canadian Open. (Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports)
On one hand, it's unlikely MacIntyre will get his second PGA TOUR win this soon after winning his first in Canada. But, on the other hand, this field is much worse than the RBC Canadian Open. With that in mind, MacIntyre's true odds should be closer to +3000.
BET 0.55u on Robert MacIntyre (+4000) to profit 22u.
- I'm adding a 0.45u bet on MacIntyre to finish inside the top 10 (+350) at BetMGM.
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Ben Griffin (+6500)
MacIntyre held off a surging Griffin to win the RBC Canadian Open. On top of his second-place finish north of the border, Griffin has a T9 at The American Express (another birdie fest), T17 at the Valspar Championship, and T13 at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson (another birdie fest).
Over the last 24 rounds, Griffin is 14th in SG: Approach (APP), the most predictive stat in golf, and eighth in Par 5 scoring, according to Bet The Number. Before the Memorial Tournament, Griffin gained strokes with his putter in nine straight tournaments with shot-link data, per Data Golf.
BET 0.4u on Ben Griffin (+6500) to profit 26u.
- I'm also adding a 0.4u bet on Victor Perez Top-20 (+333) to profit 1.5u.
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Matt Wallace (+6500)
The Englishman splits his time on the PGA and DP World Tours. Last week, Wallace was T15 at the KLM Open on the DP World Tour. He finished in a three-way tie for second at the DP World Tour Championship with Tommy Fleetwood and Viktor Hovland in November 2023.
Over the last 20 rounds on the PGA TOUR, Wallace is 13th in SG: APP, per Bet The Number. He tied for fourth at the Byron Nelson last month. The most important stat for the Rocket Mortgage Classic is Par 5 scoring, which Wallace ranks sixth on the PGA TOUR this season.
BET 0.4u on Matt Wallace (+6500) to profit 26u.
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Jake Knapp (+11000)
This is just a value bet since the Southern Californian native has been awful lately. Knapp missed three consecutive cuts at the PGA Championship, Memorial, and U.S. Open, and finished T48 at the Travelers. Those are all big-boy events at much tougher courses. However, he can overpower the Detroit Golf Club since there is little danger OTT.
Knapp won the 2024 Mexico Open, another birdie fest where golfers use the driver at most holes. Per Bet The Number, he is seventh in Ball Speed over the last 50 rounds. Knapp Time is 16th in this field for SG: APP over that span and 19th in APP shots from 75-125 yards, the distance for most second shots at this course.
BET 0.25u on Jake Knapp (+11000) to profit 27.5u.
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Additional Finishing Position Bets
Make placement bets at BetMGM or DraftKings. BetMGM doesn't apply "dead heat" rules ever. DraftKings has top-5, -10, and -20 bets that "include ties" for the 2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Chris Kirk Top-20 (+240) at DraftKings: 0.75u to profit 1.8u
Here are Kirk's finishes in his four career Rocket Mortgage Classic starts: T14 last season, T18 two years ago, T12 in 2021, and T21 in 2020. The Detroit Golf Club is a great fit for the six-time PGA TOUR winner. You have to hit your wedges well here and Kirk is fifth on TOUR this year in APP shots from 125-150 yards. Kirk won The Sentry in January, a "signature event", with a T16 at The Masters and a T10 at the RBC Heritage, another "signature event".
Will Zalatoris Top-20 (+160) at DraftKings: 0.75u to profit 1.2u
It's been an up-and-down year for Zalatoris after missing most of last season with a back injury. But, if Zalatoris had his A-game, he'd be one of the favorites here. He has three top-10s this year, all at "signature events" or majors, including The Genesis Invitational (T2), the Arnold Palmer Invitational (T4), and The Masters (T9). This could be a get-right spot for Zalatoris and I want a piece of him if so.
Will Zalatoris hits the ball out of the rough during the 2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic at the Detroit Golf Club. (Junfu Han/USA TODAY NETWORK)
Erik Van Rooyen Top-20 (+260) at DraftKings: 0.5u to profit 1.3u
The South African is third on my model at Bet The Number. Van Rooyen is 19th in this field for SG: OTT and fifth in Par 5 scoring over the last 50 rounds and 12th in SG: Putting on Bentgrass/Poa greens over the last 20 rounds. We are getting good odds on EVR because he's missed the cut in his first two Rocket Mortgage Classics. But, Van Rooyen has seven top-20s since the 2023 FedExCup Fall schedule, including a win at the World Wide Technology Championship.
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Rocket Mortgage Classic 2024 One-And-Done Pick: Maverick McNealy
After 23 tournaments, I have $11,297,271 and rank 1,400th in the 2024 Mayo Cup One-And-Done league. My pick for the 2024 Travelers Championship, Patrick Cantlay, was one of the most popular in the pool and his T5 hardly improved my standing. Nonetheless, I'm seeing this thing through to the end and McNealy is my highest-ranked golfer still available.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.