2024 Presidential Election Betting Odds Following First Kamala Harris, Donald Trump Debate

Vice President Kamala Harris has swung to a slight betting favorite over former President Donald Trump to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election after their Tuesday, September 10 debate. According to VSIN's A Numbers Game, Harris is -120 to be the next president while Trump is -110 at BetMGM Ontario (Canada). 

Remember, betting on the U.S. presidential elections isn’t a thing in America. So, all the odds you’ve seen are from offshore or international oddsmakers. Harris’s -120 price tag has a 54.6% implied win probability and, with -110 odds, Trump is at 52.4%.

I'm sure you're asking "Where the hell does the other 7.0% go?" Well, the answer is "To the bookmakers’ wallets." That’s right. No matter who wins, the sportsbooks taking your presidential election bets will profit. 

Former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris debate during the 2024 presidential election campaign at The National Constitution Center in Philadelphia. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Anyway, going into their first debate (the second 2024 U.S. election day after current President Joe Biden torched his reelection odds at the first), Trump was a -135 favorite and Harris was a +110 underdog. Immediately after the debate, Trump fell to -120 and Harris climbed to -110.

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Then, they flip-flopped Wednesday morning with Harris becoming the slight -120 favorite. Perhaps the betting markets are reacting to the biggest entertainer in the world, Taylor Swift, endorsing Harris minutes after the debate. ESPN gas bag Stephen A. Smith certainly thinks so. 

Feelings aside (and I’m a dude who doesn’t talk about his feelings or politics), the debate didn’t go well for Trump. Fox News reports, "ABC moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis fact-check Trump 5 times, 0 for Harris." Plus, the shift in betting odds confirms what Smith and a lot of people think: Swift's endorsement matters. 

Nevertheless, the debate(s) and celebrity endorsements won't make a difference. The 2024 presidential election will be decided by which candidate does a better job laying out a plan to improve America's future. Unfortunately, we didn't hear a lot of strategy during the September 10 debate. Hopefully that changes by Election Day, November 5. 

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