Betting 'Locks' For The 2024 Paris Summer Olympics Basketball Quarterfinals

After three games of group play per team, the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics Basketball tournament heads to the quarterfinals Tuesday, Aug. 6. To no one's surprise, the United States advanced to the knockout round, going 3-0 in Group C. Germany and Canada join Team USA as the only undefeated teams from the group stage. 

Some of basketball's biggest stars hit the hardwood Tuesday, such as LeBron James, Serbia's Nikola Jokic, Greece's Giannis Antetokounmpo, France's Victor Wembanyama, and Canadian Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. It's going to be high-flying action starting in the wee hours of the morning. Without further ado, let's discuss how to make money on these games. 

Paris Summer Olympics Basketball Quarterfinals Betting Card

• UNDER 162.5 in Greece-Germany (-114) at FanDuel
• Australia +7 (-115) at DraftKings
• Canada -7.5 (-108) at FanDuel
• UNDER 186.5 in USA-Brazil (-120) at BetMGM

Greece vs. Germany, 5 a.m. ET

Greece went 1-2 in the group stage but advanced to the quarters with the point-differential tiebreaker. Its only win was over Australia, which also made the quarterfinals. The Greek Freak, leads the team in points (27.0) and rebounds per game (7.7) in the Paris Summer Olympics. 

Germany swept group play. PG Dennis Schroeder leads the Germans in "efficiency" while averaging 19.7 points per game (PPG) and a team-high 9.0 assists. German SG Franz Wagner leads the team in scoring in these Olympics with 21.7 PPG. The Germans are -8 favorites to move onto the semifinals. 

Greece PF Giannis Antetokounmpo celebrates after scoring on Australia in the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. (Sameer Al-Doumy / AFP)

Two of Greece and Germany’s three group stage games went Under this total. Germany gave up the fewest points per game during group play and Greece tied France for the second-fewest PPG. But, I'm betting the UNDER 161.5 (-110) based on a bunch of basketball-based reasons. 

Greece has the worst 3-point percentage at the Olympics, hitting just 30.3% of its 3s. Turnovers lead to easy buckets. The Germans lead the Olympics in turnovers per game (10.0) and Greece is fourth (11.7). Germany is tied with Team USA for the best assist-to-turnover ratio and Greece is second.

Ultimately, I like playing the Under in elimination games during the NBA playoffs. When a season is on the line, teams tighten up and the pace slows down.

Australia vs. Serbia, 8:30 a.m. ET

Serbia is overrated in this matchup because it has the best player in the world, C Nikola Jokic. Yet, Australia has eight active NBA players and the Serbians only have two: Jokic and Atlanta Hawks SG Bogdan Bogdanovic. Australian, and Hawks forward, Dyson Daniels is the best perimeter defender in this game. 

Daniels can make life difficult for Bogdanovic. And while no one can "shut down" Jokic, Australian C Jock Landale is a legit player. Landale is Australia’s leading scorer (19.7 PPG) and rebounder (9.7). Plus, Jokic isn't a "defensive big", so Landale will get his numbers Tuesday. 

Australia SF Josh Giddey passes the ball to C Jock Landale in a game vs. Greece during the Paris Summer Olympics at Stade Pierre Mauroy in France. (Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Also, Australia’s best player is Chicago Bulls forward Josh Giddey, who is second on the team in rebounds (8.7) and points (15.0) and leads the Aussies in assists (6.7). Before getting traded to Chicago this offseason, Giddey was a starter for the Oklahoma City Thunder, who was the 1-seed in the 2024 Western Conference Playoffs. 

I like Giddey’s game more than the casual NBA fan. The last thing people remember about Giddey was him being the weak spot in the Thunder’s starting lineup when the Dallas Mavericks upset them in the second round of the playoffs. However, after Jokic, Giddey is the second-best player on the floor.

Canada vs. France, noon ET

Les Bleus might be the home team, but they don’t have enough ball handlers to match up with the Canucks. Detroit Pistons SG Evan Fournier is France’s only NBA backcourt player. Canada, on the other hand, has 2023-24 NBA MVP finalist Gilgeous-Alexander and Denver Nuggets PG, and 2022-23 NBA champion, Jamal Murray.

Guard play is more important in tournament basketball because bigs cannot create their shot. France C Rudy Gobert is an offensive black hole. Any Gobert shot that isn’t a dunk is a bad offensive possession for the French. Three Canadian NBA bigs: Toronto Raptors C Kelly Olynyk, Sacramento Kings PG Trey Lyles, and Dallas Mavericks C Dwight Powell.

France C Victor Wembanyama shoots a three against Team Germany in the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics. (Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images)

Granted, the French alien, Wembanyama, can do anything on a basketball court. Nonetheless, Canada has three terrific wing defenders in Houston Rockets SF Dillon Brooks, OKC forward Lu Dort, and Toronto Raptors SF R.J. Barrett. They can swipe at the ball when Wemby tries to dribble.

Finally, despite being the home team, France’s group-play performance was underwhelming. As -16.5 favorites, Les Bleus needed overtime to beat an 0-3 Japan squad, 94-90. France's only win in group play was against Brazil 78-66 and the French were down eight points after the first quarter.

USA vs. Brazil, 3:30 p.m. ET

Teams wouldn’t take their feet off the gas in group play because of the scoring margin tiebreaker. That may change in the knockout stage since they are must-win games. With that in mind, blowouts are where Overs go to die and the United States is nearly a four-touchdown favorite over Brazil (-27.5 at BetMGM). 

American guards Stephen Curry and Anthony Edwards celebrate after a time out vs. South Sudan during the Paris Summer Olympics. (John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports)

Regardless of the point-differential tiebreaker, Team USA went Under the total in two of its three group-play games. America is prone to slumps because coach Steve Kerr has been tinkering with his rotations since before the Paris Olympics. Even though Brazil is shooting an Olympic-high 45.3% from three, none of its games have combined for more than 186 points. 

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