Hot Takes, Cold Cash: Best Bets For 2024 NFL Season Awards
Since the 2024 NFL Kickoff Game is Thursday, it's time to go on the record with official predictions for the season-long awards. Before this season, I rarely bet NFL futures because I would rather use my bankroll on regular-season and playoff games.
However, after the rush of hitting the Defensive Rookie and Player of the Year last season, I hope to make more money off of NFL futures in 2024. Below are my picks and best bets for the NFL season-long awards with a few longshots of +2500 odds or higher.
NFL MVP
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (+450)
This isn't an actual bet in my account because the odds are too low and there are a lot of good quarterbacks in the NFL. But, I want it on the record that I'm picking Mahomes to win this award. Like Nikola Jokic in the NBA last season, I could see NFL MVP voters trying to make up for not giving Mahomes the award in 2023 despite clearly being the best player in football.
Finally, this is the best team surrounding Mahomes since KC traded WR Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins in 2021. Chiefs TE Travis Kelce missed two games last season and still caught 93 passes for 984 yards. Kansas City took speedster WR Xavier Worthy with the 28th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco is a top-10 starting running back and WR Rashee Rice had 79 catches for 938 yards and 7 TDs as a rookie last year.
Best Bet: Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford (+3000) at FanDuel
The Rams are my pick to make the Super Bowl out of the NFC because they have the best quarterback (Stafford) and coach combo (Sean McVay) in the conference. In 2021, Stafford's first season in LA, he threw 41 TDs and 4,886 passing yards, and he has more talent around him this year.
Rams WR, and 2021-22 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, Cooper Kupp is a year removed from a season-ending injury that cost him 2022 and has looked great this offseason, reportedly. Second-year Los Angeles WR Puka Nacua set NFL records for most catches (105) and most receiving yards (1,486) by a rookie in 2023.
Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford celebrates with teammates after throwing a 7-yard TD pass against the Cleveland Browns at SoFi Stadium. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
LA's offensive line had a bounce-back season last year after being decimated by injuries two years ago. Rams RB Kyren Williams rushed for 1,144 yards last season (ranked third) and scored 12 rushing TDs. Stafford could match his 2021 numbers with this supporting cast, but he needs team success to put him in the MVP discussion.
Well, Los Angeles is the second-betting choice to win the NFC West behind the San Francisco 49ers at roughly +350 odds. If the Rams beat out the 49ers for the division, they'll have to win 11-12 games. The only way for LA to be a contender for the NFC West is if Stafford plays at an MVP level, making his +3000 odds a good price.
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NFL Offensive Player of the Year: Houston Texans WR Nico Collins (+7500) at FanDuel
I love this price for Collins. Houston QB C.J. Stroud is the fourth-betting choice for 2024-25 NFL MVP at FanDuel with +1100 odds and Collins is his go-to receiver. In just 15 games last season, Collins led the Texans in receptions (80), receiving yards (1,297), and TD catches (8).
Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Collins was the fifth-best wide receiver in football last year. The four receivers ahead of Collins last season with their 2024-25 OPOY odds are Hill (+750), 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk (+10000), Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (+1200), and Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb (+1100).
Given what Collins means to Stroud and Houston's offense, his odds for winning the 2024-25 OPOY should be closer to New York Jets WR Garrett Wilson at +2500. Lastly, the Texans trading for WR Stefon Diggs this offseason prevents opponents from double-teaming Collins.
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Defensive Player of the Year: Detroit Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson (+1400) at FanDuel
Essentially, I don't see much of a difference between Hutchinson, Cowboys' Micah Parsons (+550), Cleveland Browns' Myles Garrett (+700), Las Vegas Raiders' Maxx Crosby (+850), Pittsburgh Steelers' T.J. Watt (+850), and Niners' Nick Bosa (+1000).
Yet, Hutchinson's odds have a way fatter payout. The No. 2 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft had the second-most pressures last season behind Parsons and 11.5 sacks. Hutchinson also has a knack for making big plays. He forced three fumbles last year, had 7 pass deflections, and 1 interception.
Detroit Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson sacks Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. (Junfu Han-USA TODAY NETWORK)
If the Lions are a Super Bowl contender this season, their defense will have to improve and Hutchinson is Detroit's best defensive player. Granted, I don't think the Lions will be "that good" in 2024-25. But, this bet is sort of a hedge to that stance.
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Offensive Rookie of the Year: Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams (+135) at DraftKings
I rarely bet on season-long futures with payouts this low, but this is a LOCK. As I wrote in my Bears 2024 preview, I feel similar about Williams' 2024-25 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year chances as I did about San Antonio Spurs phenom Victor Wembanyama, who was roughly -150 to win the 2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year.
Chicago Bears, and betting favorite for 2024-25 NFL Offensive Rookie of the year, QB Caleb Williams drops back to throw vs. the Cincinnati Bengals at Soldier Field in preseason. (Sam Greene/The Enquirer/USA TODAY NETWORK)
Furthermore, Williams has by far the best supporting cast of any rookie quarterback. Chicago was 7-10 last season and wasn't "that bad". The Bears had the No. 1 overall pick in this year's draft because they fleeced the Carolina Panthers by trading the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft for what turned out to be the No. 1 pick in April.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year: Los Angeles Rams pass rusher Jared Verse (+900) at DraftKings
The Rams had a first-round draft pick for the first time since taking former QB Jared Goff No. 1 overall in 2016. They used the 19th pick in the 2024 draft by taking Verse to replace future Hall of Fame interior pass rusher Aaron Donald.
While lining up alongside Donald would help Verse's sack numbers, replacing Donald means the Rams are counting on Verse. They drafted Verse's college teammate, Brandon Fiske, in the third round, so vibes are high on LA's defensive line.
Plus, I correctly picked Texans pass rusher Will Anderson Jr. to win the 2023-24 DPOY and get similar vibes about Verse this season. Like Anderson, Verse is a two-time first-team All-American in 2022-23, and a known game-wrecker in college football the past two years.
Verse had 9.0 sacks in both seasons at Florida State. He had the second-best "SackSEER" projection among edge rushers in the 2024 NFL Draft, according to FTN's Aaron Schatz. SackSEER analyzes a pass rusher's athletic measurements and projects a sack count through his first five NFL seasons.
Coach of the Year: Cincinnati Bengals Zac Taylor (+2500)
Besides Bengals QB Joe Burrow and WR Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati's roster is mediocre. Before Burrow went to Cincy, Taylor was considered a bottom-10 NFL head coach. However, between Burrow being a franchise-altering quarterback and his development, Taylor will finally get credit if the Bengals are good this season.
Taylor had the chance to show off his coaching chops last year after Burrow went down with a season-ending wrist injury. With backup QB Jake Browning starting, Cincinnati went 4-3 to end last season. The Bengals are the favorite to win the 2024 AFC North at +145. If they can win the division, Taylor's Coach of the Year odds will fall to closer to +1000.
Comeback Player of the Year: New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers (+200)
All Rodgers needs to do is finish the season healthy and he'll probably win this award. The Jets have a championship roster surrounding Rodgers and can make the Super Bowl if they get "league-average" play from him. The New York media will also help Rodgers' case for Comeback Player of the Year if the Jets are a playoff team this season.
For the record, this isn't an official bet. This award's selection process is all over the place and Rodgers' odds are too short. Based on the same "New York media" point, Giants QB Daniel Jones (+1800) is another good look to win this award. That said, I'm going to sit this one out and pick Rodgers to win it.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NFL 2024-25 betting record via X all season.