2024 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Bets: Creighton Will Hammer Tennessee

I lost my first Final Four team Thursday in the Sweet 16 of the 2024 NCAA Tournament when the 6-seed Clemson Tigers upset the 2-seed Arizona Wildcats 77-72 in the West Region. If I'm serving up "blame pie", Arizona head coach Tommy Lloyd gets 60% of it, Wildcats PG, and Pac-12 Player of the Year, Caleb Love gets 25%, and his teammates take the remaining 15%. 

LISTEN to the OutKick Best with Geoff Clark Podcast: 2024 Sweet 16 Gambling Powwow ft. Dan Z & Scott Martin

Arizona kept falling for Clemson's "screen for the big" out-of-bounds play. That falls squarely on Lloyd's shoulders. Love shot the Wildcats out of the game, as predicted by college hoops handicapper Dan Z. on my OutKick Bets Podcast. He was 5-for-18 from the field (0-for-9 from 3-point land) and set the precedent with one of the worst shot selections thus far in the Big Dance. 

Either way, I scratched out a winning night Thursday in the Sweet 16. The favorites rolled in the second round of the tourney. But, the pendulum swung back the other way Thursday with three of the four underdogs winning outright. We know the sportsbooks are pulling for the underdogs after taking a beating in the Round of 32. Aside from the  Marquette Golden Eagles, I have a hunch we'll see the same thing Friday. 

Sweet 16 Best Bets for Friday  

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing. 

Midwest Region: 5-seed Gonzaga Bulldogs (+5.5) vs. 1-seed Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue beat Gonzaga 73-63 Nov. 20th. Boilermakers C, and Big Ten Player of the Year, Zach Edey scored a game-high 25 points and pulled in a game-high 14 rebounds. That said, the Bulldogs are a better team now. Since adding 6-foot-10 PF Ben Gregg to the starting 5, Gonzaga is 16-2 and Gregg is shooting 41.5% from behind the arc. 

Gregg gives the Bulldogs another big to throw at Edey. Gonzaga's other starting big, PF Graham Ike, has the second-best offensive rating in the country behind Edey (with a minimum of 28.0% usage rate), according to Ken Pom. The Bulldogs won't be able to stop Edey, but there's a chance they could offset his production. 

Furthermore, besides Edey, who stands at 7-foot-4, the Boilermakers have a small starting 5. Purdue PG Braden Smith is 6-foot-0, SG Lance Jones is 6-foot-1, SF Fletcher Loyer and PG Mason Gillis is 6-foot-6. Needless to say, Purdue can't survive a bad game from Edey. But, Gonzaga is better and bigger at every other position. 

Lastly, Gonzaga plays better on the road and has better recent form. According to Erik Haslam, the Bulldogs are 12th in momentum and 112th in "away-from-home" efficiency out of 362 D-1 schools. The Boilermakers are 337th in "away-from-home" efficiency and 183rd. 

Risk 1u on the Bulldogs +5.5 (-110) and ‘sprinkle’ 0.3u on Gonzaga's moneyline (+188)

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South Region: 4-seed Duke Blue Devils vs. 1-seed Houston Cougars

Houston, along with the rest of the Big 12, is overrated. The Cougars cannot close out defensive possessions with rebounds, they commit too many fouls, and they are small. According to Ken Pom, Houston is 273rd nationally in defensive rebounding rate and 322nd in defensive FT/FGA rate out of 362 D-1 schools. 

The Cougars rank 345 in average height and their starting center, Ja'Vier Francis, is 6-foot-8. Duke starting C Kyle Filipowski is a legit 7-footer, who can score inside and outside the perimeter. Houston needs to pack the paint due to its size, or lack thereof. The Cougars are 284th in defensive 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) and the Blue Devils are 13th in 3-point shooting, per Ken Pom. 

Duke Blue Devils C Kyle Filipowski gets a layup against the Vermont Catamounts in the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn. (Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports)

Adding to that, Houston cannot play Filipowski off the floor because it's a bad shooting team that plays at a slow pace. Per Ken Pom, the Cougars are 183rd in effective field goal shooting (eFG%), which factors in 2- and 3-point rates, and 322nd in offensive tempo. The Blue Devils can set up their half-court defense because of Houston's slow pace. 

Finally, the Cougars are overrated because of their soft non-conference schedule and mediocre performance on the road. Ken Pom says Houston had the 225th-toughest non-conference schedule nationally and Erik Haslam ranks the Cougars 359th in "away-from-home efficiency".

Risk 1u on the Blue Devils +4 (-108) and ‘sprinkle’ on 0.25u Duke's moneyline (+160) at DraftKings. 

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Midwest Region: 3-seed Creighton Bluejays at 2-seed Tennessee Volunteers 

This is a cheesy saying in the sports betting space, but Creighton-Tennessee is a "Wrong Team Favored" game. Bart Torvik produces his version of "Wins Above Replacement" known as "PRPG!", which measures how a player compares to the average college basketball player. Torvik's website is a free version of Ken Pom, but it has more tools. Anywho, below is a table comparing the Creighton and Tennessee starters: 

The Bluejays are better at literally every position. UT has more depth, but Creighton leads the country in defensive FT/FGA, according to Torvik, and does a great job of staying out of foul trouble. Bluejays SF Baylor Scheierman having a better PRPG! than Volunteers SF Dalton Knecht might throw people off. Knecht is the 2024 SEC Player of the Year and a finalist for the James Naismith Player of the Year award. 

However, Knecht has more accolades than Scheierman because the SEC gets more media love than the Big East and Knecht has a higher usage rate (32.1-25.3%). Otherwise, Scheierman is more efficient; he has a better offensive rating (116.5-115.0) and eFG% (56.2-54.1%). 

Creighton Bluejays SF Baylor Scheierman drives to the basket on the Oregon Ducks in the Round of 32 in the 2024 NCAA Tournament at PPG Paints Arena. (Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports)

Bluejays C Ryan Kalkbrenner has the second-best "Player Efficient Rating" in the Big East. The Volunteers lost three straight games during the regular season vs. non-SEC opponents with elite bigs. Those teams were Purdue, Kansas, and North Carolina. Edey had 23 points and 10 rebounds. Kansas C Hunter Dickinson scored 17 and grabbed 20 boards. North Carolina C Armando Bacot put up 22 points with 11 rebounds.

READ: ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi Needs To Put Respect On Big East’s Name | Geoff Clark

Creighton has a much better shot profile. Per Torvik, the Bluejays have a better dunk rate differential (8.3-6.5%), long-mid-range differential (18.1-1.5%), and 3PAr margin (+21.1% vs. -0.2%). "Dunk rate" is self-explanatory. Long-mid-range shots are the most inefficient shots in basketball and threes are the most important shot. 

For what it's worth, this is my favorite play in the 2023-24 college basketball season and my first 3-unit bet ever at OutKick. Creighton will out-class Tennessee in the Sweet 16 and further prove the Big East is to college hoops what the SEC is to college football. 

Risk 1.65u on the Bluejays +3 (-110) and Bet 1.32u on Creighton's (+130) moneyline at DraftKings. 

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